the method behind finding the EXACT top in IBB
Posted on February 23, 2014 Leave a Comment
08/02/2014 – IBB has completed a PERFECT buy (price and time equality) PATTERN and believe the result will, more than likely, give us a good flavor for the rest of the equity market in general. Why? Well, this was a PARABOLIC move and if it keeps going then the “overall” mindset of the equity market might fall in line. Might or might not … anyway, IF you are long THEN the level 246 should be on your mind. If we close below on a daily basis would recommend looking at this position long and hard. IF the pattern works THEN risk is anything below 246. Watch this …
I was asked to take a look at IBB again and decided to re-post the below. Look folks, as much as the below is a work of art I’ve also been wrong on the patterns. it’s all probability and the patterns are always CORRECT? Why, because they LET YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE WRONG! And, when you become an advanced pattern recognition trader, IF (the big if) you execute correctly THEN you know that you’ve done everything you can do to manage risk and your not SURPRISED or HAPPY when one works or SURPRISE and SAD when one doesn’t. The PATTERN will work or it wont …off my soap box.
Anyway, take a peak at the below and try to follow me … let me know if you have any questions. Sir Issac Newton is still correct about this thing called gravity.
Everything you learned in elementary school geometry is all you need …
Rock on, ok?
Bart
they don’t come any nicer than this BUY pattern on IBB
IBB Daily showing 1) all time high and 2) the BUY pattern present
CLIFF NOTES (my wife says I’m to verbose and geeky (she’s correct) so she always says “just give me the cliff notes”)
- IBB Biotech ETF is in the parabolic stage. Very tough to develop targets in this type of environment (straight up) but an attempt is made.
- At the first sign of a daily signal reversal candle would look at closing a lot or all of any long position // take a crack at a short – it’s going to be a marvelous ride down
DETAILS:
if you click on the link below, you’ll see “real time” the EXACT high on APPLE using simple geometry we learned in elementary school:
per the title of this post, the basic effect of gravity has yet to be proven wrong. what goes up WILL come down unless we blow thru the earths atmosphere and cruise along in space w/ Sandra Bullock. And, why not? the stock market is NEVER going to come down and it’s different this time ….
but alas, someone has to try … the charts below are an attempt to 1)call for caution w/ regards to this parabolic rise and 2) demonstrate some techniques to obtain price targets. Full disclosure – don’t be impressed w/ AAPL. (see my GOOG posts) It’s simply PATTERNS and some work and some don’t. Most of the time they do …it’s an edge, I believe in that edge and the rest is history. ENJOY …
sure looks like the NASDAQ in 2000 … parabolic UP and then down hard …
Dollar Index Positive Reversal forming on daily …
Posted on February 19, 2014 1 Comment
cliff notes:
- 55 calendar days on 2/20/2014 from the last low in the US Dollar
- BUY patterns present and have held but have not confirmed a low in the dollar
- still a level at 79.50-79.60
- positive reversal (bullish) pattern present on the dollar index
last post on the dollar:
update:
US Dollar Index w/ potential areas for support and move up noted by blue rectangles
US Dollar Index Positive Reversal
Utilities (DJUI) update
Posted on February 18, 2014 Leave a Comment
Utilities broke out of the potential triangle ID’d a couple days ago … the move up had volume and note the large candle present. The chart below shows the next pattern w/ regard to a bearish outlook on the Utilities sector.
DJUI SELL pattern
if this level does not hold I will work backwards and find out where my analysis was wrong and off track w/ regards to the 5 waves labeled 1 or A.
GOOG
Posted on February 15, 2014 1 Comment
go to the home page and search GOOG. You will quickly see it has been the bane of my existence … tried a short in/around 920 and was SMOKED. looked for another pattern in around 1080 ish and that got SMOKED –so how do you keep the faith of the readers of this blog ?
well, I guess this is the best way.
GOOG BUY
so there you have it … at one time the PATTERN SAID BUY! 🙂 Folks, all real time, no “could have, would have, should have.” Yeah …but that is the past and that don’t count does it?
so, here’s where we are now — in a very extended and “almost parabolic move up” — so I have come to the conclusion that GOOG will NEVER GO DOWN and JUST KEEP BUYING IT …the stock market always goes up or will always come back so dollar cost average yourself to financial freedom.
this Chartist/Trader is T A P P E D O U T on GOOG …
FB updated …
Posted on February 15, 2014 4 Comments
here’s post from September 2013 showing BUY recommendation on FB in/around 16-18.
here’s a look at the high flyers w/ FB included … “this stock is going to get smoked” was pre-mature but do believe the RED ARROW is where it’s going. Correction should take it down to HIGH of IPO price around 42 bucks.
where are we now …? Sure looks like a nice 5 wave advance occurring. So, it’s just a matter of time before it cracks….
3 drives to a top?
THANKS for the question … would be looking for TOPPING areas in/around now to the 72 level as it does appear we have finished a 5 waves sequence. Bullish trend to continue w/ support found in/around 54-60.
Hope this helps …
Bart
I love this chart …
Posted on February 15, 2014 1 Comment
the WX in Northern Virginia today is just down right ugly … snow, winter mix, wind has picked up. Have been doing posts, checking on the wife w/ a herniated disk and the 9 year old w/ a sinus infection and then playing Pink Floyd looking for patterns. As I was going thru the charts I realized 1) I have saved way too many of them … and 2) there are some amazing ones out there …
here’s a chart that simply shows the aftermath of parabolic rises … isn’t it a beauty?
here’s the updated chart …
parabolic rises have very powerful corrections …
and here’s the update on GMCR – amazing !!! I haven’t looked at it in a couple years!
CLIFF NOTES: many, many, many charts are showing these parabolic rises … Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong w/ his theory of gravity!
AAPL – window closed, buy in around 260-270
Posted on February 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
well, I guess we’ll see … if you go to the link above you’ll see the work that has been done on AAPL. And, while the AAPL work has called EVERY swing low and swing high – GOOG has kicked our butt. Patterns work and Patterns fail …but they are an edge and that’s what were looking for …
where are we now? We think AAPL is done and an entire leg down is going to being … above 610-620 and this idea is wrong …
CISCO (CSCO) Mirror Image Foldback – BULLISH
Posted on February 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
a move down to 16 would be a NICE place to BUY for a potential foldback as shown …KABOOM (?)
around the world update … part II
Posted on February 15, 2014 Leave a Comment
the link above is where you’ll find our around the world cruises since August. this post is an update …what do we see?
- nothing has changed, significantly.
- none of the international indices have made new highs like the US equity markets …
- patterns have provided resistance, BUT not necessarily overt sell signals
- for the BEARS we are concerned about the SIZE and STRENGTH of the past two weeks of candles. the only country that doesn’t have this feel, as we see the world (literally) is Japan. The European ETF’s show strength in the bullish weekly engulfing patterns.
- for the BULLS this is a good sign HOWEVER I’ve enclosed a chart of the DJIA that shows a very strong move UP from the low 9-10 days ago but a VERY significant lack of VOLUME. the VOLUME was BIG going down and SMALL going up (in fact it decreased) hence I find this to be overtly bearish. A very nice 5 waves down can be seen in most of all the indices except the NASDAQ but that is also completing a 1) 5 point reverse wave, 2) 3 drives to a top and 3) all of em’ are smacking into the .786 retracement from 2000. If the US Market starts down again in a “daily C wave” or “continuation 3” we find it hard to believe that the rest of the world won’t also …
- so, we believe this week will be pivotal …
- last, believe it or not, the Dollar is going to be Gorilla that get’s this thing truly rocking and rolling ….one target was hit and held late Friday afternoon.
Here’s a representative example of the VOLUME going UP on the way down and VOLUME going DOWN on the way up …
Gorilla’s juggling dynamite … and the US Dollar
Posted on February 13, 2014 2 Comments
used GOOGLE to look for a picture of Gorillas Juggling dynamite – this is the best I could find
Early in my career I had the wonderful opportunity to get training from Joe Di Napoli (www.fibnodes.com) Highly recommend learning some of his techniques but, most importantly, his understanding of the market structure and the players in the game. One of his favorite sayings is we must realize that “you are entering into a world where the market is truly a caged gorilla juggling dynamite and – the dynamite is lit!”
Additionally, if you have been reading this blog you’ll realize it’s focused 1) 100% on PATTERNS and 2) it’s unique value is tying PATTERNS into the circle of life (fixed income, equities, commodities, FX). W/in the context of the circle, the gorilla is the Foreign Currency Market. According to the Bank for International Settlements – the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.
The Dollar Index is somewhat important as it represents a basket of 9 currencies – the Euro representing a vast majority of it at 58%.
For all intensive purposes – it’s been “stuck” in a 4 cent range but PATTERNS suggest we are “prepping” for a big move … so, in order to get a “feel” for where we MIGHT be let’s go back to the “beginning” at 71 ish and work thru to present…
PATTERN at after the 71 low
more detailed look at the mirror image foldback present in the US Dollar
CLIFF NOTES: the BULLISH thesis is that after the 5 waves down from 121, a 3 wave (at a minimum) corrective pattern should ensue (A-B-C) and therefore the bounce has farther to travel. Additionally, it could mark a MAJOR low and we are starting back up for 5 waves. The BULLISH consensus for the US DOLLAR is that this move UP is not complete. Please see this chart below … and, notice the EXACT move up from the PATTERN shown above at the “2 or B” level.
note a clear 5 waves down should lead, big picture, to a 3 wave move up (at a minimum)
so where are we now? Without showing an “elaborate” count, we can see by the chart below that we smacked right into a “big picture” .618 price projection that had it’s genesis from the 71 price low.
.618 price projection on the US Dollar causing the resistance
here’s the possible bullish count from the “2 or B” low that shows a POTENTIAL 3rd wave underway. IF the count is correct, then the 79 level has to hold and is very crucial as it suggest that the 3rd wave should begin …soon and UP we go.
potential count showing a bull move
now, we need to drill down one more time frame – that of the 240 minute chart to see what we have going on. YES, we have a BULLISH PATTERN on the US Dollar at 80.05-80.08. In order for this entire thesis to be correct, then I believe this pattern needs to hold for the strength in the US Dollar to begin…
BULLISH BUY PATTERN PRESENT]
the last BULLISH PATTERN present …
PATTERNS fail …they are an EDGE and over time they have been statistically proven to give us an edge. But, what if this pattern does fail? Take a close look at the following two charts … I have not shown this before, but we need to take into account the 5 wave move down from 121 and the .618 price projection — they are starting to form a huge B wave triangle. The 5 wave move into the low is a BIG BIG A and then current structure is forming a BEARISH TRIANGLE w/ the ‘c’ portion just completing (due to the exact nature of the .618 price projection) and ‘d’ and ‘e’ to come …also note the purple trend lines. One forms a head and shoulders and the other is showing the support for the US Dollar since the ‘b’ wave low …
do we have a multi year bearish triangle forming?
here’s one last thing to consider …. take note of the measured move UP move from the past and what happened after it completed … a bearish omen?
a measure move omen ?
CLIFF NOTES:
- w/ the deflationary forces present, the dollar SHOULD strengthen. A well formed count supports that and a PATTERN very very close also holds that thesis as correct and positive. The first is the once completing at 80.05 on a shorter time frame and then 79.53 on the daily. They need to hold – w/ the 79.53 as the major pattern if the bullish thesis is correct. Remember, w/ our rules we could go all the way down to 79 again so, for all intensive purposes the 79 level is the line in the sand. We have two symmetrical BUY patterns present …
- HOWEVER, if we lose the 79.53 level THEN it will open up some serious selling. PATTERNS will then shift to the B wave triangle thesis …
- Last, we have MAJOR patterns complete across the indices and they are “acting” like the double tops that formed in 2000 and 2007. We have the Dow Jones Transports finishing a pattern from the late 1800’s, we have a potential generational low in interest rates complete and PATTERNS suggest one more wave lower in the commodities …
It’s all coming together and one of the circle of life gorilla’s is going to drop their stick of dynamite and big old explosion is going to occur …
