Copper and China
Posted on December 20, 2013 Leave a Comment
the count (long term) for copper appears to have completed a very well defined 5 wave move … if this is correct, then perhaps we have a little larger rally to kiss the neckline and then down into much lower prices. why is this important to China? well, from a chart view they are aligned extremely nicely. so, IF Copper is going to go down THEN so should FXI if the correlation holds …
the Musical Swissy …
Posted on December 19, 2013 Leave a Comment
what a week in the FX markets … amazing. if you have been following along, I have been a DOLLAR BULL the past couple weeks awaiting for what I THINK is the end of a correction that is going to set up a pretty large and powerful rally in the US Dollar.
that being said, one of the key components that everyone involved in the FX watched is the USD vs the Swiss Franc (AKA the SWISSY)
what I saw was an “ending diagonal” that was nicely showing us 5 waves down and that would have represented the end of a somewhat “flat” correction that started in July 2012. Yes, it’s been 1 year and 5 months since the high….and, think about it, it’s ONLY retraced right in/around .382.
as I followed this last move down I naturally thought we would get a bounce in/around the pattern called a zig-zag/ab=cd/equality of moves/etc. In fact as you can see, it did bounce rather strongly in/around that level (to be exact) however, the wave count wasn’t complete. so, we did one more wave down and hit exactly at 1.05946*a = c. With that level being hit, we have a weekly signal reversal and, additionally, we are selling off rather nicely w/ the Euro and the Dollar Index appears to have bottomed. Also, note the TIME component. IF we have the PRICE w/ a 1.05946 component THEN we have 27 weekly bars in the ab move so 1.0594*27=29 and that give us an PRICE and TIME equality.
as we have seen this past couple weeks the musical note ratio’s are doing some nice work in the markets. I have a small 5×7 card w/ the ratio’s and, now, they are basically memorized. recommend you do the same – they make great stop placement levels. (see GOOG 1.68179 extension target) If those of you want the why – check out this website – http://www.brooksdesign-ps.net/Reginald_Brooks/Code/Html/Gomas/gomas09.htm
if we get below .8832 then all of this is jibberish ….
Silver following the script part IV
Posted on December 19, 2013 Leave a Comment
I would encourage anyone new to this blog to go thru the following past blogs to get an update on where we are ….the link is here:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/20/silver-following-the-script-part-iii/
the big question “is the high in/around 50 a wave III or a wave V?” I REALLY like it being a wave III because the current correction in form/balance is SO NICE. If that is the case, we are in the midst of the 5th wave of C that will take us into the 14 area for a really really powerful BUY. I have shown the 11 area based on the length of the corrective move from the old high in the 1980’s.
we have a beautiful zig-zag (3-3-5) correction working …. in the case of the 14 dollar level we have a=c and w/in the context of the C wave we have wave 1 and wave 5 being equal and then they land right on the .786 from the low in 2002. that is the PATTERN we have been following and tracing …
yes I know that silver is becoming overtly bearish from a sentiment perspective and w/ a very strong dollar forecasted is another 20% percent correction into the March 14′ time frame to out of the question?
E-mini update
Posted on December 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
here’s the last post on the e-mini:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/12/10/emini-update-10102013/
key juncture for the bull/bear case … either way, I think we are terminal. it’s either HERE after the FED meeting OR we’ll cook it off and rally into the new year and then pull the plug. I have presented both pictures below ….something to keep in mind. what do “they” have in mind at the end of the week. a very large reweight is to occur on Friday w/ the introduction of Facebook into the S&P 500. so, that means there will be a LOT of STUFF for sale. Stuff is the proprietary list of names (supposedly) that will be worked (manipulated) by the arbs to get it done. in addition to that we have some extremely long term SELL patterns occurring across a multitude of instruments.
and, don’t forget the USD. that will be KEY moving forward as we’re certainly “thinking” we have carved out a bottom on the USD index. we’ll see ….
one last, nice full moon yesterday … just be aware that has proven, in the past, to heighten volatility.
so like NFP, I’ll be sitting this one out. no need to think I can play in the world of high frequency trading, hedge fund gorilla’s juggling dynamite and Goldman Sachs knowing exactly what is going to happen before it happens. I’ll check in around the Asian open to get a feel. Certainly hope that high on the EURO doesn’t get taken out. make it a great day …
PS — POUND pumped up today – a SURPRISE in their jobless numbers. Guess we are final “recovering” after the 4 year recovery? things that make you go hmmmm
cheers!
SBUX monthly signal reversal candle a couple bucks away
Posted on December 17, 2013 Leave a Comment
here’s the post on SBUX:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/03/sbux-and-coffee-futures/
the RELATIVE STRENGTH of Coffee Futures to SBUX has a montly BUY signal and the post above showed how inflections of Coffee relative strength w/ regards to SBUX usually gave one a “heads up” on price action. the geometry of the PATTERN at/around 81 is presented, again, below. a monthly signal reversal candle (SRC) is around 74.51.
SBUX potential targets and count that doesn’t break any rules (valid (?))
SBUX SELL SIGNAL monthly approaching
the initial impulse move … is the DNA
Posted on December 13, 2013 Leave a Comment
30 year fixed income continuous contract
spent last night w/ my wife of 23 years and best friend since we were 15, at the Andrea Bocelli concert …as a self proclaimed market musician on many occasions I found myself w/ eyes closed trying to hear the different chords/tempo and harmony being blended. it was pretty cool …so this morning I thought I would take you down a trip along “harmony” lane and talk about the initial impulse move or DNA of ANY liquid instrument.
the longer the chart time frame the better .. we have shown the ability of “nodes” from the late 1800’s taking part in moves that have occurred in the 2000’s. so if you have long term data, use it. in this case we are looking at the low on the bonds from 1981. this low created the very powerful 30+ year move in fixed income.
1. the bold blue arrow is the “seed” or “DNA” that begins this move … do you know it at the time? probably not. HOWEVER, after the first pullback (on a long term chart) you can start to assume a major inflected top or bottom is in place and start the trip down the “harmony” lane.
2. from that initial impulse move up (note it takes it account the slope of the move – you include PRICE and TIME) draw a SQUARE. Now, using “standard” trend line tools draw a 45 degree angle and then, well, your done. connect the 45 degree angle to the top and the low of the box and simply take a look at what appears. THE HARMONY/GEOMETRY of the MOVE.
now, as far as this chart goes we have a lot of “stuff” going …
1. note the largest corrective move in the 30+ year BULL RUN takes us into the 123 11 area.
2. note, this largest corrective move occurred during the 2008 thumping in equities. it’s already 3/4 over and equities haven’t even moved … hmmm.
3. if you look at the wave structure is sure looks like we are in wave 5 of 3 that “should” take us to attack that level indicated by the horizontal blue line.
4. note how the “trend line” and the “measured move correction” come together right in/around the 123-124 level.
5. let’s not forget, this is a massive BULL run so it would only make sense that the trend will continue. this 123-124 level will be the line in the sand, IMHO (h= humbled) opinion.
stay tuned ….
here’s the dollar index, takes about 10 minutes
dollar index squares
GOOG and AAPL update
Posted on December 12, 2013 Leave a Comment
I should have known … for those who have been reading this blog, we’ve seen 1.68179 come up a lot lately. It was the extension target on an intraday basis for the emini, it was a price projection ratio (1.68179-1 – .68179) for the Pound vs USD and a host of other. the reason I “should have known” is a piece was put out on first call to SHORT GOOG at/around 1075 and stop out above 1082 (or something like that) I didn’t take into account the 1.68179 ratio and that’s what looks like it did it …
- the 898-974 GAP will get targeted and ultimately should get filled. am I expecting BIG SUPPORT w/in that entire ‘window’? YES …
- recent square of 9 targets shown w/ the IPO price of 95 in the center (hint hint)
- note the 5 waves up/into the recent high
- 33*33 = 1089
- the Defense Index sold off nicely yesterday … not sure WHY it works, it just looks the exact same.
- full disclosure, a short was tried at pattern completion (AB=CD) in/around 920. we’ll wait right now, but this sure looks like major resistance.
square of 9 targets
GOOG daily
GOOG monthly
AAPL completed SELL pattern up against 2009 trend line. just a tad bit higher is the .618 retrace but it sure looks like this is it for now.
AAPL
Emini update 12/10/2013
Posted on December 10, 2013 1 Comment
of course it would have to pick the 3rd or highest target, but the high yesterday did fit into the wave structure correctly and was 1.618179 of the B leg extension and 1.618*a so that level was KEY. now, does it hold or not? if it does then we have begun an earnest wave down. I say earnest because of all the “other” charts that have been posted w/ regards to major patterns being completed across the board …
the key here is the USD index right now … as long as it keeps losing ground (I think it’s ending to the downside) then stocks will hold up, for a while. wasn’t it interesting that both APPLE and GOOG got some love yesterday (were up pretty big) but “everyone else” wasn’t …?
here’s the post showing the targets on the emini BEFORE NFP and days before anything occurred:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/12/06/nfp-and-the-emini/
here’s the updated chart:
EMINI
rock on, ok?
GBP struggles …
Posted on December 9, 2013 Leave a Comment
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/26/great-british-pound-again/
here’s where we are …
GBP last target for the triangle thesis
we have discussed in former posts the importance of the 1.68179 ratio and it’s relationship to the equal octave scale of music and how, at times, the .68179 price projection technique is very helpful. in a triangle, you have 5 waves – a,b,c,d,e and they are “normally” w/in the .618 relationship. well, in the case of the Pound you can see .68179 and .886 have been very strong ratio’s. so, this entire triangle thesis is about 50 pips from become a reality or getting blow out of the water. I tested a small short last month and was stopped out … since then, I have been waiting for 5 waves at a lesser degree (time frame) to support the thesis. It hasn’t happened ….so, this final level as shown in the chart above will be my line in the sand. this has been one heck of a fight …
Bart's Charts 