IWM what a perfect set-up
Posted on November 26, 2013 Leave a Comment
the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
IWM
Great British Pound – again
Posted on November 26, 2013 2 Comments
if your a new reader, check out the below posts on the continuing saga of trying to get short the GBP vs USD:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/12/the-great-british-pound/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/18/the-great-british-pound-update/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/30/great-british-pound-update-iii-and-pumpkin-soup/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/22/the-pound-gorillas-and-juggling-dynamite/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/29/pound-negative-reversal-potential-long-term-chart/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/31/halloween-pound-update/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/02/great-british-pound-continues/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/05/jec-silver-past-fractals-and-the-pound/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/12/pound-foldback-updated/
so, where do we sit now? below you will find a daily chart of the GBP vs USD and, well, nothing has really changed. let’s focus on a couple things:
- the target we had “hoped” for is, quite frankly, still out there and rest at 1.6330. it is conceivable for one more push into that short zone.
- the analysis of a multi year triangle completing (big blue 4) is still alive.
- the move from 4 (big blue) down to the 1 (green) represents 1 0f 5 in a 5th wave decline that “should” take out the 2009 lows.
- most recent price action is viewed as a 2nd wave correction in a-b-c fashion. the 1.618*a = c level is at 1.6297 (never hit)
- here’s the most important part – the 2 month consolidation is either is 1) corrective and an advance to our long standing target will occur OR 2) the most recent high yesterday is “it” and we start down. I don’t know which is which but I do see a more favorable foldback than the one originally presented on 11/05.
GBP vs USD Daily
the foldback can be seen here …
GBP vs USD foldback into Head and Shoulders
here is the 4 hour chart w/ a little more granularity …
GBP vs USD 4 HR chart
will be trying to get short (again) on this potentially MAJOR move … our risk will be anything “closing” on a 4 hour – daily basis above our long term target OR above the 4 (big blue one). at that point I will ERASE everything an go back to the drawing board…
rock on, ok?
B
put the needle on the record, put the needle on the BROKEN record – caveat emptor
Posted on November 24, 2013 Leave a Comment
apologize for falling off the blog bandwagon early this week…got smacked like a brick in the face w/ a stomach bug. just resurfaced … actually got some emails from you asking where the posts are…thanks! since my record appears to be broken, thought I would add some thoughts from 50+ years of trading…each of these men are friends and mentors of mine …
Larry Pesavento (www.tradingtutor.com) put out a chart on the Shiller P/E ratio but actually added some “other” criteria to the chart in the following manner:
- Shiller P/E anything > 18 (current is 25+)
- S&P 500 at a 5 year high
- S&P 500 at least &% above 40 weeks smoothing
- Bulls > 50%, Bears < 20% (Investors Intelligence)
- Prior Instances of this happening: 1972/1987/2007
- note – in 2000 bears never fell below 2000
- note – this happened in 1929 on imputed sentiment
the most recent clusters have been in May 2013 / Aug 2013/Nov 2013 …. why hasn’t the market gone down, just a bit? Well here’s why …
mentor/friend Mike Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) recently explained the amazing run in these terms:
“The FED buying of treasury bonds actually spills into the area of the FED buying stocks because indirectly they are. The ‘banks’ like Goldman Sachs now can borrow billions from the FED at a fraction of a percent and buy an ETF basket of stocks with 2% dividends and sell futures short as the hedge and also sell puts and calls to make up the spread difference arbitraging a good profit on the FED loan. This has had the effect of ratcheting up the market with each new buy program. The proof that this is at work is the fact that the biggest correction seen so far took place in late June when the S&P futures were expiring and in a downtrend and the September contract was at too steep a discount to roll out profitably so they had to liquidate some long baskets. This will happen again either in December or March and then there could be hundreds of billions of baskets unwinding just like the portfolio insurance of 1987. The big institutions learned in 2008 that no matter what the ‘valuation’ of a stock was, it could go to almost zero if a large enough seller was out there. They won’t wait around this time and they’ll create a ‘flash crash’ getting out…”
I’ll just leave you w/ two charts …one is the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) and the continued march of the DJ Transports …
it’s coming folks … keep riding this wave but when you get smashed into the coral at the end of the break, hope you brought a breathing apparatus. What a great run it’s been…
one last, man, I hope I am 100% complete wrong ….
update of DOW TRANSPORTS
SHORT Pattern on the IWM
Silver following the script part III
Posted on November 20, 2013 1 Comment
for a view of Part 1 and Part II of “Silver following the script” please see the following: https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/08/silver-following-the-script-part-ii/ this will take you to Part II and inside of Part II is a link to Part I.
Summary: key level is 19-60-19.80 on spot silver. IF that gives away, THEN an move into the 13-14 region is a real possibility.
update on Spot Silver
daily update showing the key level daily level (blue ellipse)
TWITTER update … sell pattern worked, to the cent …
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
TWTR SELL Pattern Potential
this was the real time post from last week: https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/14/twtr-first-sell-pattern-coming-into-play/
see chart for details/gameplan
Salesforce ($CRM) 1,2,3,4,5 and that’s all she wrote …
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
CRM 1,2,3,4,5 and equality projections .. that’s all she wrote
“Ladies and Gentleman, this is your Captain, please fasten your seat belts for this expected turbulence”
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
on 10/23/2013 we wrote “turbulence ahead for Boeing…” – https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/23/turbulence-ahead-for-boeing-ba/
today, the target was hit … stand by, and, PLEASE fasten your seat belts:
Aristotle, Diogenes Laërtius and the Dow Jones
Posted on November 17, 2013 1 Comment
Abstract: The moral stated at the end of the Greek version is, “this shows how liars are rewarded: even if they tell the truth, no one believes them”. It echoes a statement attributed to Aristotle byDiogenes Laërtius in his The Lives and Opinions of Eminent Philosophers, where the sage was asked what those who tell lies gain by it and he answered “that when they speak truth they are not believed“.[3] William Caxton similarly closes his version with the remark that “men bileve not lyghtly hym whiche is knowen for a lyer”.[4]
the BOY who CRIED WOLF or the CHARTIST who CRIED CAVEAT EMPTOR
DOW JONES COMPONENT SUMMARY: this next week will mark, yet another, very important point in TIME for market to heed. As seen below, targets and patterns are/have completed (ing) and let make one thing clear. I am not personally tied to what the patterns are objectively showing. So, I never have nor ever will “lie” like the fable states above. I am simply stating the patterns are showing SELL patterns and as one who has said this before, it’s a very very precarious market. But, w/ full disclosure I have been saying that for a while and the market keeps exploding higher. So, I could be construed as “crying wolf” so to speak.
enjoy the charts and thanks for the comments, questions …
one last — W O L F !!!!!
DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX: the low on this index was formed before the Industrial average was 45.59 on 10/29/1896. when we go back into such long time frames we need to let the charts check the validity of this node in time/space. Using this low of 45.59 we find that it held the .382 retracement of the 1987 crash, the .5 retracement of the 2000-2003 low and the .618 (exact OBTW) retracement of 2007-2009. additionally, as shown by the orange arrows, the “thunderbolt” or “ab=cd” move was exact in resistance at 5537 in 2010 and almost the cause of the 2007 top. W/ those as our reference points, I believe we can objectively say that we have a good “node” to work from …
the purple arrows are “basic” measured move projections that smack right into an extension pattern in/around 7600. Additionally, the lighter blue arrows come in around 7535 on the index. I expect those to be MAJOR resistance areas if not the TOP. At a minimum, an expectation of a 3500 point decline from those areas (simply the size of the last one) is to be expected.
if we take a look a current levels – 7211 close (and note, closed at the highs) – then another 300 point move or, roughly, 4 percent move isn’t out the question. expect higher next week into this area of EXTREME resistance.
DJ Transports … 1896-2013
DOW JONES UTILITY AVERAGE: the Utilities Average has a sell pattern appearing a little higher after a very big monthly sell signal. while the pattern from the all time low in 1942 is still alive, it will be extremely important to watch this SELL pattern coming into play. If we fail at this SELL pattern then an attack of the “still alive” target up around 570 could be a reality. either the SELL pattern or the “still alive” will/should stop it in it’s tracks …
all time low DJUA quick look
SELL PATTERN appearing on the DJUA
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: back before posting, JC Parets allowed me to “guest post” (thanks) on his site using the all time low on the DOW and our former 2007 top. (http://allstarcharts.com/the-math-behind-historic-dow-charts/) that level was, essentially 15,300 and the DJIA has been bouncing in/around that level for almost 6 months. that is what THE long term .618 price projection should do – if not be a top or bottom. but, last week, it gave away and the DJIA took off. folks, what we potentially have here is a 5 point reverse way pattern on a monthly basis. IF CORRECT, the bearish implications are very powerful. trend line resistance exists a little higher, we have a 1.27 extension pattern at 16,308 and the “top of the circle” at 16,827. I know the “top of the circle” will have people scratching their heads but LOOK at what the bottom of the circle did the last time we were EXTREME in bearish emotion (2009). It, basically, nailed the bottom. Would seem natural that the top would do the same…correct?
W
O
L
F
Bart out …
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