TWITTER update … sell pattern worked, to the cent …
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
TWTR SELL Pattern Potential
this was the real time post from last week: https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/14/twtr-first-sell-pattern-coming-into-play/
see chart for details/gameplan
Salesforce ($CRM) 1,2,3,4,5 and that’s all she wrote …
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
CRM 1,2,3,4,5 and equality projections .. that’s all she wrote
“Ladies and Gentleman, this is your Captain, please fasten your seat belts for this expected turbulence”
Posted on November 18, 2013 Leave a Comment
on 10/23/2013 we wrote “turbulence ahead for Boeing…” – https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/23/turbulence-ahead-for-boeing-ba/
today, the target was hit … stand by, and, PLEASE fasten your seat belts:
Aristotle, Diogenes Laërtius and the Dow Jones
Posted on November 17, 2013 1 Comment
Abstract: The moral stated at the end of the Greek version is, “this shows how liars are rewarded: even if they tell the truth, no one believes them”. It echoes a statement attributed to Aristotle byDiogenes Laërtius in his The Lives and Opinions of Eminent Philosophers, where the sage was asked what those who tell lies gain by it and he answered “that when they speak truth they are not believed“.[3] William Caxton similarly closes his version with the remark that “men bileve not lyghtly hym whiche is knowen for a lyer”.[4]
the BOY who CRIED WOLF or the CHARTIST who CRIED CAVEAT EMPTOR
DOW JONES COMPONENT SUMMARY: this next week will mark, yet another, very important point in TIME for market to heed. As seen below, targets and patterns are/have completed (ing) and let make one thing clear. I am not personally tied to what the patterns are objectively showing. So, I never have nor ever will “lie” like the fable states above. I am simply stating the patterns are showing SELL patterns and as one who has said this before, it’s a very very precarious market. But, w/ full disclosure I have been saying that for a while and the market keeps exploding higher. So, I could be construed as “crying wolf” so to speak.
enjoy the charts and thanks for the comments, questions …
one last — W O L F !!!!!
DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION INDEX: the low on this index was formed before the Industrial average was 45.59 on 10/29/1896. when we go back into such long time frames we need to let the charts check the validity of this node in time/space. Using this low of 45.59 we find that it held the .382 retracement of the 1987 crash, the .5 retracement of the 2000-2003 low and the .618 (exact OBTW) retracement of 2007-2009. additionally, as shown by the orange arrows, the “thunderbolt” or “ab=cd” move was exact in resistance at 5537 in 2010 and almost the cause of the 2007 top. W/ those as our reference points, I believe we can objectively say that we have a good “node” to work from …
the purple arrows are “basic” measured move projections that smack right into an extension pattern in/around 7600. Additionally, the lighter blue arrows come in around 7535 on the index. I expect those to be MAJOR resistance areas if not the TOP. At a minimum, an expectation of a 3500 point decline from those areas (simply the size of the last one) is to be expected.
if we take a look a current levels – 7211 close (and note, closed at the highs) – then another 300 point move or, roughly, 4 percent move isn’t out the question. expect higher next week into this area of EXTREME resistance.
DJ Transports … 1896-2013
DOW JONES UTILITY AVERAGE: the Utilities Average has a sell pattern appearing a little higher after a very big monthly sell signal. while the pattern from the all time low in 1942 is still alive, it will be extremely important to watch this SELL pattern coming into play. If we fail at this SELL pattern then an attack of the “still alive” target up around 570 could be a reality. either the SELL pattern or the “still alive” will/should stop it in it’s tracks …
all time low DJUA quick look
SELL PATTERN appearing on the DJUA
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: back before posting, JC Parets allowed me to “guest post” (thanks) on his site using the all time low on the DOW and our former 2007 top. (http://allstarcharts.com/the-math-behind-historic-dow-charts/) that level was, essentially 15,300 and the DJIA has been bouncing in/around that level for almost 6 months. that is what THE long term .618 price projection should do – if not be a top or bottom. but, last week, it gave away and the DJIA took off. folks, what we potentially have here is a 5 point reverse way pattern on a monthly basis. IF CORRECT, the bearish implications are very powerful. trend line resistance exists a little higher, we have a 1.27 extension pattern at 16,308 and the “top of the circle” at 16,827. I know the “top of the circle” will have people scratching their heads but LOOK at what the bottom of the circle did the last time we were EXTREME in bearish emotion (2009). It, basically, nailed the bottom. Would seem natural that the top would do the same…correct?
W
O
L
F
Bart out …
right click, drag mouse over “clear all drawing tools”, drag mouse over “all charts”, left click. ALL CLEAR
Posted on November 16, 2013 Leave a Comment
the power of a advanced pattern recognition is finding key levels and seeing what the market does around them …while I remain in the BEAR camp, I do recognize some patterns have failed. so, w/ no attachment to the outcome I have deleted all my work on all my charts and will, methodically, go thru each of them w/ a clear mind. My charts now look like below – (read: nothing on them)
$TWTR first sell pattern coming into play
Posted on November 14, 2013 2 Comments
TWTR SELL Pattern Potential
the DNA is the initial impulse move
Posted on November 14, 2013 Leave a Comment
the DNA of any move in a liquid asset is the initial impulse move off of a low or a high. In that, all else will take fold.
below we have a chart of the EURO w/ nothing on it…
EURO 30 minute chart
here’s the four things we need to do to give birth to ALL of the trend lines on the EURO from the most recent low…
- now, we draw a VECTOR (vectors have both a PRICE and a TIME) off the low into the first high. that is the bold blue arrow and is the DNA
- draw a 45 degree angle UP from that low point. (the famous GANN 1×1) that is the bold purple line
- draw a 90 degree angle from the top of the blue arrow to connect to the purple line. that is the light blue line …
- draw a 26 1/4 degree line up from the low and, note, it intersects the square exactly in the middle. That is the red line ..(the famous GANN 2×1)
- now simply copy/paste these lines into the future to give rise to all future turns …
is it possible to trade every hit of these lines? I would submit “no” but perhaps someone out there or some computer program can … for me, they are simply a very powerful roadmap to follow. I’ll look for a pattern and I have, in my head, “gates” or “intersections” to follow …
our “short zone” worked and we have had a very feeble 5 day rally … 1.3500 could have done it but I still “feel” a little higher might be in the cards.
hope you enjoyed
EURO angles
relative strength of GOLD vs the USDJPY importance
Posted on November 13, 2013 5 Comments
a line in the sand was drawn at 75 in the USD vs JPY when the BOJ, after the horrible tsunami, said – enough is enough this is where the buck stops! the rest is history and a big KABOOM occurred. everyone and the brother can see the coiling occurring w/in this very important currency pair and, quite frankly, everyone and their brother is EXPECTING it to resolve to the upside. here is the case for that ..
BULLISH POTENTIAL
now, here is where it gets interesting … is there any possibility of this moving DOWN? A couple weeks ago, I didn’t think so and here’s the post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/10/japanese-yen-advance/
if you look at that post, we nailed the low and the pair has moved up from the levels indicated.
now it gets interesting, a lot of BEARISH PATTERNS have been completing on the equities side of the house and IF this is marking an important top/pause in the run from 2009, THEN the Nikkei 225 shouldn’t keep going straight up – one would think. So, being very focused on the FX markets I decided to look at the JPY vs a lot of the pairs from around the world
CHFJPY: stopping exactly where it got smashed a couple years ago and in 1999. (JPY strength) / this is the most fascinating chart IMHO.
GBPJPY: little higher and then major resistance. (JPY strength)
EURJPY: tough call, but higher and we have major resistance (EUR strength? Seriously? perhaps if the EURO smashes down, the JPY will strengthen?)
AUDJPY: major sell signal HIT and AUD is weak against the JPY (JPY strength)
CADJPY: major sell pattern HIT and if it holds we’ll get a move low. Another target is higher also..( but JPY strength)
These 5 pairs do not show the coil and they are showing some JPY strength afoot? (Cue Wayne’s World – “something is afoot at the circle K”
What to do … well, let’s go back to our ratio’s. in this case let’s do a ratio analysis of SPOT GOLD / USD vs JPY. Well, look at that …
Relative Strength of Spot Gold vs USDJPY
another parabolic run that is ending badly … but here’s what REALLY makes me go “hmmmm.” It’s not a stretch to say we are in a very powerful wave 3 down right now in this relative strength chart … but notice how long the wave 2 took to correct! A pretty long time before things got interesting. one of the things we are taught in the CMT is form/proportion and balance. I would just think that wave 4 would take a little more TIME. So what do we do – go to a time frame lower:
spot gold vs USDJPY relative strength
so, if we can get to the lower level at 12.56 on the ratio we’ll get a good a idea of where we are…my thesis is that if 1) this level holds and bounces it will cause the YEN to strengthen and if we lose this level to the downside it will cause the YEN to weaken and the triangle of USDJPY will resolve UP. Here’s why this is so important:
the line is the JPY vs USD. the JPY is “strong” when the blue line is going up and it’s weak when the blue line is going down. note the TIMING of the inflection points in the ratio.
SUMMARY: yes, we are at a critical level in the USDJPY contraction …if we keep any eye on the Ratio of SPOT GOLD / USDJPY we might be able to get a “peak” at the directional movement of the coil …
Last, here’s the BEAR count of the USDJPY:
a bearish interpretation ….perhaps?
the issue here is the 4th wave .. with such a powerful move i would expect more consolidation. But look at the wave labeled 1 – the 4th in that move was a quick “bump in the road” and the 4th before the top at 104 is kind of a mirror image. perhaps forcing it, but is something to consider.
the last thing to consider is the CLEAR 5 WAVE MOVEMENT INTO the 104 zone. 1,2,3 triangle 4, 5 … quite frankly, why isn’t this count a possibility? especially if our ratio finds support and goes up some more to relieve the beating it has taken ..
just saying ….stay tuned.
EURO correction complete, shall we resume lower?
Posted on November 12, 2013 Leave a Comment
MACRO SUMMARY: the correction on the EURO from 07/2012 is showing signs of being complete. Additionally, if you have been following our dollar index posts, you’ll see that the next advance of the US Dollar “should” be getting underway. Since the EURO is a major component of the US Dollar index we need to look at it to work a “first opportunity” to get short on a nice pullback.
TRADING SUMMARY: we are at or nearing completion of a final corrective leg that will target 1.3167 for a potential first support zone for this next leg down. near term, favor support to be found on an intra-day basis around 1.3410’ish and one final move up into the 1.3460-1.3520 area to SELL and signal a start of the next wave down. consider this analysis incorrect if we get an hourly close, with thrust, above 1.3550.
EURO vs USD Monthly
- note, once the high was in during 2007 that on the pullback’s the RSI resistance band had “shifted” to the bear market range.
- note, that the opening price in 01/1999 (once regained) has been a line in the sand, so to speak that the EURO has never been back below since regaining in 2003. that level is approximately: 1.17
- the count, even on this monthly has been tough. right now I am favoring that wave (2) of 3 just completed and we are in the very beginning stages of the swift, powerful (3) of 3.
EURO WEEKLY
- blue arrows showing max corrective move since 07/2013 w/ nice confluence level, am expecting that to be first bounce area
EURO 4 hour
- note the “slice thru” strongly of roughly 3 weeks of support at/around the 1.3460-1.3470, that “should” now act as resistance
- just as important is our red line showing the monthly close level of 1.3521 that held and had the market bouncing around for a while, that should also offer continued resistance.
- last, the purple trend line is the channel trend line that had it’s origin w/ the 07/2013 low. that should also be formidable resistance
EURO 15 minute intra-day
- final leg of a 1,2,3,4,5 C wave in progress .. favor one more push into the BLUE ELLIPSE for a SHORT zone to resume bearish posture. Unfortunately, right now, that entire zone has all kinds of targets …looking for 1.3410 to signal a minor correction complete for one more advance.
questions to me – Bart
Bart's Charts 