where is the negotiator? final stages of PCLN run
Posted on November 11, 2013 Leave a Comment
PCLN … amazing advance but one that is at/nearing an end for now.
a clear wave structure is in place that makes this current move up equal to a 5 on declining volume. also, it’s parabolic so don’t get to overzealous and short up in here – however – take not of my TSLA post, AAPL posts, etc to see how amazing parabolic moves are to the UPSIDE and how they get balanced by moves to the downsides that are equal and opposite w/ intensity. In my lifetime, I have never seen a parabolic move that rock and rolls to extreme highs and then digests/distributes and pauses and then takes off again…they all crack, hard.
fixed income … the one more high or final high in place quick looks
Posted on November 10, 2013 1 Comment
take the time to catch up on by reading/viewing charts from the below links…
last post:
post that warned of a very important top – before I was blogging:
http://allstarcharts.com/are-interest-rates-at-a-key-inflection-point/
bonds sold off hard on Friday and what could be the start of another leg down.
let me digress for a bit .. I LOVE Elliot Wave – when it’s easy to count. LOL – no kidding if you can pay attention to corrections and their form (flats, zig zags, triangles, expanded flats, double threes, etc) and live by the rules (3 can’t be shortest, 2 can’t go above/below the beginning of 1, 4 can’t go past the end of 1) you can get kind of dangerous at it. when I try to force a count it’s probably correcting or “the grid is shifting” and the count will, ultimately come to me. so, am I on a 5 minute chart counting every squiggle? nope … however, I do look for counts on monthly and weekly charts.
back to fixed income … if we look at the low in the summer of 2009 we’ll see the next leg up on bonds (the last?) start in earnest. Wave 1 peaks out and, as you can see, I have labeled to areas where 1 might have finished. then we go down into 2 and then this is where it gets interesting … if we make (1) = 3 then the correction BLOWS THRU 1 and we have broke our rule so we have to sub-divide and then NICELY count (1), (2), (3), (4),(5) into the all time high and that high becomes 3. for me, it’s the only way that I can count it and NOT break rules.
w/ that in mind, we see a 3 wave move down (a) and then a 3 wave movement up (b) and now we are rolling in a pretty devastating C wave…the “internals” of this C wave are very nice in that 3 was exactly 1.618 of 1 and IF 5=1 we land right on the top of the wave 1 that began the move in 2009 and it also equals the MAX/EXTREME corrective move that has ever occurred in this 30+ year move…IF that level holds and we start going up then, we might be up to another high. Sounds crazy but that is what the chart is telling us w/ regard to “one more high”
the chart:
here is the bearish count – note the entire 2 was a flat type of correction and therefore, you “could” fit this one into the picture….either way, we are on the right side of the market and I feel pretty certain that we’ll target that long standing trend line at 127-128 (red line) and/or the 124 level. I expect rates to rise accordingly as this target area is attacked. Stay tuned …
Long Bond w/ a modified count to show the all time high
“What is and What Should Never Be” Part VI Conclusion
Posted on November 10, 2013 2 Comments
here’s the conclusion from 2 months ago:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/16/part-vi-the-sp-500-conclusion/
a quick review of the Part 1-5 has shown that most if not all of our playbook has been playing itself out. NOTHING has changed my view that we are due for a very large correction, or dare I say, a very surprising THUMP of gargantuan proportions. the stage is set …
the manipulation of this market is of epic proportions … it should be correcting or be going down but the FED has made sure it never will be …they can keep printing but one day it will end…
Part V and “I Can’t Quit You Baby”
Posted on November 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
this was Part IV a couple months ago:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/16/part-v-sp-and-sector-rotation/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g5Ypz74jQw
I think this ratio is one of the most important out there as it shows the rotation into the staples of life, so to speak. additionally, at EVERY major inflection point since 2000 when this ratio bottoms or tops the market does the opposite. this pattern is complete, it held and I think it will prove to be very bearish for the market.
I can’t quit you XLP/SPX ratio …
Part IV and “your time is gonna come”
Posted on November 10, 2013 1 Comment
this is the Part IV post from a couple months ago:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/15/part-iv-sp-and-energy/
this energy sector needs to be watched … the OSX, XOI, XLE are painting the same picture as they have gone up in the context of targets that have now been hit or are completing just a little higher. Crude, however, has been pretty weak … not widely reported is the fact that the Administration basically lifted economic sanctions on Iran so perhaps they are flooding the markets w/ their oil…who knows and that’s not for me to conjecture.
however, in the context of the S&P energy does make up roughly 10% of the index so, in order for the index to start moving lower we will need to see these patterns complete and start down. they HAVE NOT yet …but they are basically in the zone
Follow up to Part III and “When the Levee Breaks”
Posted on November 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
Part III post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-iii-the-sp-500-and-the-influence-of-technology/
when the levee breaks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOEQTJV_3-w
NAZZIE has hit our targets … is the levee going to break?
follow up to Part II w/ Led Zeppelin “your time is going to come”
Posted on November 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
last post on the banks:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-ii-the-sp-500-and-too-big-to-fail/
You Tube link to Led Zeppelin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fssblRRCgmg
updated chart .. certainly looks like the banks “time is going to come – soon or now”
banks PATTERN complete/completing
Follow Up to Part I … going around the world again w/ a little Led Zeppelin “the song remains the same”
Posted on November 10, 2013 1 Comment
following up this post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-1-the-sp-500-but-first-we-need-to-go-around-the-world/
cliff notes: the US markets are the ONLY ones to make new highs …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m2FhRv8xF0
also, note that France was downgraded last week to AA and the EURO-zone cut rates …
“I had a dream, a crazy dream…” the Song Remains the Same – the tsunami is approaching.
CAVEAT EMPTOR
$TWTR .. if you shorted it at the pattern completing at 50 you would be up 20%
Posted on November 9, 2013 1 Comment
it’s no secret – I don’t know fundamentals.
it’s really really confusing and seems very intellectual. I do, however, know charts and price/time.
so, if TWTR opened at 45 and peaked at 50 and close today around 40.50 well … isn’t the entire world underwater w/ that amazing investment in a company that has NEVER turned a profit.
things that make you go hmmmm
TWTR end of the 2nd day of trading
$YHOO, Rocky and TAP OUT
Posted on November 8, 2013 Leave a Comment
in the world I live in the chart is everything …
price and time and PATTERNS. an amazing businessman, friend, mentor and excellent investor/trader and I are short YHOO. he’s listened, studied and has seen the power of the patterns …the power in the fact that they manage risk. BUY or SELL at the pattern level and decide how much to risk … pretty easy, correct?
well, tonight, I’ll admit I am tired …
as one of the few remaining BEARS out there I simply have to take stock of YHOO. We are short YHOO and it’s held 33.50 for three months. if you study the chart below and if your a candle guy or gal you’ll find that for 3 months the OPEN/CLOSE has been almost exactly at the same level. pretty cool that the PATTERN identified has held the market at bay and yes, REAL capital has been deployed. (note: I don’t know WHO this is going out to in the virtual world but everything that I blog is real time w/ real capital at RISK..) the bottom line — it HAS NOT sold off from this level. I could go on and on about margin debt, cycles from the 1800’s, deflation, QE, talking head pundits and all of that “stuff.”
so what do you do … ? you go back to your training and objectively assess the situation.
1. in 2005 top there were, obviously, some very powerful intra-month swings for 3 months and then capitulation.
2. look at the lows in 2001-2003 – TWO YEARS of an up and down swing and then it explode from 4 to 44 dollars.
3. mid 2006-mid 2007 we did the N correction (blue arrows) and then capitulation…note, we are at the same level as we were at the time of the thump in 2007. coincidence? no…I don’t think so…
so, if you think about it for 3 months we have been “in the money” and “out of the money” so what is the gameplan …?
1. REMAIN SHORT
2. Expect 33.52 to potentially give away to the upside but the 36.25 area to hold and it sells off big time.
3. IF we get a DAILY close above 38/we are wrong and STOP OUT.
now that I have presented my plan there is no “fret” or “guessing” just pure numbers …
look at that SEPTEMBER candle into 33.36 … we KNOW why it’s digesting in this area, but we don’t know if it’s going to crack and go to 16 …
last thing – note our low was 9 (3*3) and the .786 is 36 (6*6)
“it is always better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out …”
believe we will find out, soon where this puppy is going ….
TAP OUT or put up the Rocky fight … TBD
make it a great weekend …
B
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