Follow up to Part III and “When the Levee Breaks”
Posted on November 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
Part III post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-iii-the-sp-500-and-the-influence-of-technology/
when the levee breaks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOEQTJV_3-w
NAZZIE has hit our targets … is the levee going to break?
follow up to Part II w/ Led Zeppelin “your time is going to come”
Posted on November 10, 2013 Leave a Comment
last post on the banks:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-ii-the-sp-500-and-too-big-to-fail/
You Tube link to Led Zeppelin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fssblRRCgmg
updated chart .. certainly looks like the banks “time is going to come – soon or now”
banks PATTERN complete/completing
Follow Up to Part I … going around the world again w/ a little Led Zeppelin “the song remains the same”
Posted on November 10, 2013 1 Comment
following up this post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-1-the-sp-500-but-first-we-need-to-go-around-the-world/
cliff notes: the US markets are the ONLY ones to make new highs …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m2FhRv8xF0
also, note that France was downgraded last week to AA and the EURO-zone cut rates …
“I had a dream, a crazy dream…” the Song Remains the Same – the tsunami is approaching.
CAVEAT EMPTOR
$TWTR .. if you shorted it at the pattern completing at 50 you would be up 20%
Posted on November 9, 2013 1 Comment
it’s no secret – I don’t know fundamentals.
it’s really really confusing and seems very intellectual. I do, however, know charts and price/time.
so, if TWTR opened at 45 and peaked at 50 and close today around 40.50 well … isn’t the entire world underwater w/ that amazing investment in a company that has NEVER turned a profit.
things that make you go hmmmm
TWTR end of the 2nd day of trading
$YHOO, Rocky and TAP OUT
Posted on November 8, 2013 Leave a Comment
in the world I live in the chart is everything …
price and time and PATTERNS. an amazing businessman, friend, mentor and excellent investor/trader and I are short YHOO. he’s listened, studied and has seen the power of the patterns …the power in the fact that they manage risk. BUY or SELL at the pattern level and decide how much to risk … pretty easy, correct?
well, tonight, I’ll admit I am tired …
as one of the few remaining BEARS out there I simply have to take stock of YHOO. We are short YHOO and it’s held 33.50 for three months. if you study the chart below and if your a candle guy or gal you’ll find that for 3 months the OPEN/CLOSE has been almost exactly at the same level. pretty cool that the PATTERN identified has held the market at bay and yes, REAL capital has been deployed. (note: I don’t know WHO this is going out to in the virtual world but everything that I blog is real time w/ real capital at RISK..) the bottom line — it HAS NOT sold off from this level. I could go on and on about margin debt, cycles from the 1800’s, deflation, QE, talking head pundits and all of that “stuff.”
so what do you do … ? you go back to your training and objectively assess the situation.
1. in 2005 top there were, obviously, some very powerful intra-month swings for 3 months and then capitulation.
2. look at the lows in 2001-2003 – TWO YEARS of an up and down swing and then it explode from 4 to 44 dollars.
3. mid 2006-mid 2007 we did the N correction (blue arrows) and then capitulation…note, we are at the same level as we were at the time of the thump in 2007. coincidence? no…I don’t think so…
so, if you think about it for 3 months we have been “in the money” and “out of the money” so what is the gameplan …?
1. REMAIN SHORT
2. Expect 33.52 to potentially give away to the upside but the 36.25 area to hold and it sells off big time.
3. IF we get a DAILY close above 38/we are wrong and STOP OUT.
now that I have presented my plan there is no “fret” or “guessing” just pure numbers …
look at that SEPTEMBER candle into 33.36 … we KNOW why it’s digesting in this area, but we don’t know if it’s going to crack and go to 16 …
last thing – note our low was 9 (3*3) and the .786 is 36 (6*6)
“it is always better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out …”
believe we will find out, soon where this puppy is going ….
TAP OUT or put up the Rocky fight … TBD
make it a great weekend …
B
silver following the script – part II
Posted on November 8, 2013 1 Comment
the first post on Silver:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/05/silver-following-the-script/
here is an update to the chart .. if our 4 is correct, we should see a strong move to the downside start to develop as we are then POTENTIALLY in a wave 3 of 5 of the 5th and final wave down into our BUY zone of 14. the only thing we need to contend w/ is IF (the BIG IF) the 50ish level was a macro 3 or 5. I can move into either camp …however, I do believe 14 will give us a nice buy signal (the first one in 2+ years)
the chart:
silver update
#patterns complete at 42.50 ish on $TWTR
Posted on November 8, 2013 Leave a Comment
following the bouncing ball on $TWTR …an update to this AM’s post
second day of trading and the first AB=CD
#hype, #bubbles everywhere, #irrational exuberance, #caveat emptor for $TWTR
Posted on November 8, 2013 Leave a Comment
certainly could be quite the story if Twitter marked the top in the market …
anyway, below is Twitters first day of trading – no patterns or anything like that, yet but I did want to show you a 1 minute chart and how most, if not all, of the swings were being governed by the numbers that we use …no moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators or anything like that … just key numbers that put probability in your favor and allow you to work and play w/ your edge.
pretty interesting that it basically closed where it opened …and, I find it also interesting that this amazing IPO occurred when it’s index (the NAZZIE) was DOWN roughly 2% and that it basically closed where it opened … things that make you go hmmmmmm
TWTR first day of trading intraday chart
TWTR second day of trading and premarket
note, a nice little SELL pattern in the pre-market….just saying. upper targets (note w/ blue ellipses) are where the “should I stay or should I go” will come into play …
B
drove in a TESLA last night ($TSLA) so it should bounce today or Monday
Posted on November 8, 2013 2 Comments
I believe … having had the amazing opportunity and privilege to fly high performance fighters while in the Navy, I usually don’t get excited about cars. basically, I’m not a car guy. however, last night I drove in a Tesla and it was amazing. frankly, w/out being on the pointy edge of the spear, it was the closest thing to a “cat shot”that I have experienced since leaving the Navy. WOW …
yes the engine and acceleration is amazing but the user interface and MSI (multi-sensor integration) is out of this world and, then, the music system — amazing. The American ingenuity present in this car gives me pause …it’s flipping an amazing machine.
because of that, TSLA is going to bounce today or Monday … just kidding, but maybe?
here’s the update below … I put the arcs in to show you a concept I call ‘musical polarity’. as a chartist, polarity is one of the first concepts taught. (support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support) it’s ‘usually’ in terms of horizontal areas/levels on a chart HOWEVER w/ a little ingenuity (see above) you can take it to another level. the use of arcs and how to “figure out” good ones and bad ones is a week long course. however, just know that the arcs on this chart are not drawn randomly.
- take the first impulse move down and “think” of that as a rock hitting the water (the blue arrow going down from the top) that rock depending on the height, weight and speed at which it hits the water will produce waves that emanate outward (down in this case)
- when projecting the waves outward use fibonacci, sacred geometry and musical notes to look for areas of FORMER support and resistance … those areas, now into the future “should” offer the same ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A PATTERN COMPLETING. LIKE WE DO — NOW.
- the arc highlighted is 1.8877 which is the note of musical note F in the equal octave scale of music….the horizontal support (blue line) is the 1.618 ratio which we are familiar with. Note, it CAUSED THE BOUNCE of support and following it down to the horizontal you’ll find support, which it did.
- the light blue arrow is a equality projection and, guess what, it lands right at the low and the intersection of the two arcs.
- so, we are “at support” and should expect a bounce and, more than likely a target of the gap from 160-170. if we lose this level, watch out … remember we are in the phase of working off the PARABOLIC EXTREME of emotions and the price is seeking where it should have normally been ….
- last thing, if you will look at the light blue vertical line that can be used as timing …it’s the vertical component of the first impulse move down and, w/ all off the patterns and musical notes all coming together WELL it might also be TIME for
support ….
if you have 100,000 sitting around — buy one of these cars. simply amazing …
get er’ done …
B
Dollar Index and the “D” word …
Posted on November 7, 2013 Leave a Comment
updating the dollar index fro this previous post:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/27/us-dollar-as-of-10272013-900-pm-est/
yesterday, saw a quick blurb on the financial news channels that first mentioned the “D” word and here is the link:
today, they CUT RATES and the dollar index took off like a rocket ship. having had the wonderful experience to gain the CMT and then teach the capstone course for the CMT Level III for a while it was burned into our head that the dollar, while somewhat of a wild card will, in fact, STRENGTHEN in a deflationary environment. Sure looks like that is the case .. but now I’m going off into fundamental nah nah land (it’s not nah nah land for most of you, just me. as my skill is advanced pattern recognition which, unfortunately, is nah nah land for the people reading this. so in the end, we are all in nah nah land. I digress ..)
of note today, the US Dollar Index exceeded it’s largest corrective move since July of this year …while a pullback in the dollar is expected (perhaps intraday) I would look at this as an opportunity to add to the position. additionally, from the below charts expect resistance on the way up in/around 82, 82.50, 83.50. believe we are going to take this trip into the low 90’s. THEN THAT IS WHERE IT WILL GET VERY VERY INTERESTING …
rock on, always Bart
Dollar Index
target in the low 90’s as shown
Bart's Charts 