US Dollar as of 10/27/2013 9:00 PM EST

in our last post we discussed the importance of current levels on the dollar or the 78.73 level a little lower.  in “counting terms” believe the dollar is carving out a major bottom in what can be coined an expanded flat corrective move.  if this analysis is correct, I am expecting a major move on the dollar…

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/01/dollar-index-done-or-correcting-or-a-little-lower/

the EURO has completed a major retracement, the POUND needs a little higher or right in here, the YEN finished a sell pattern, the SWISS hit a weekly pattern (or perhaps a little lower to the .382) and mulitple other pairs via the USD are showing the potential for a major dollar low in place.  what else?

Commitment of Traders (COT): Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st.

Here’s the data in chart form …

here’s the dollar index using red arrows to show the BEARISH and the blue arrows to show the BULLISH positions.  NOTE, at the extremes the opposite happened w/ regard to price.

now, when we take a look at the the EURO we’ll see a pretty amazing picture w/ the net positions shown but this time w/ a price of the EURO vs USD overlaid on top of the positions.  here take a look …

note the price of the EURO vs the USD .. at extreme levels of BEARISH and BULLISH points, the price did the opposite.  When the level of bearishness by the large speculators was extreme the EURO went up and when the level was bullish it went down.  take note of our dollar index we have been following since the end of August …w/ everything being presented here and in the past, certainly looks like being a dollar bull in/around here is the side of the market to be on …

dollar index updated as of 9 PM EST 10/27/2013:

here is the picture for the UUP w/ potential support points noted … also, believe if the low that we carved out on this chart is taken out by a daily close then all of this analysis is completely incorrect.

Author: BART

BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets. View all posts by BART