Thelma and Louis and Fixed Income

Interest Rates are approaching the CLIFF

Thelma and Louis made this choice ...

Thelma and Louis made this choice …

here’s a post that can allow you to catch up the saga w/in the fixed income market … whats funny is we have been SPOT ON w/ the dollar, commodities and fixed income.  the equities have just kept going UP UP UP.  Note, the BULLISH optimism in the equity market is HIGHER than 1987.  The thump is coming to the equity ecosystem.  The PATTERNS are showing it …back to fixed income –

https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/10/fixed-income-the-one-more-high-or-final-high-in-place-quick-looks/

going back 1.5 years here was one of the charts from fixed income market AT THE TOP:

long bond at the top

long bond at the top

here is the updated chart and, note, the cliff that the LONG BOND is sitting on …

Long Bond updated 1/4/2014

Long Bond updated 1/4/2014

we are sitting right on the cliff that has held rates at bay … I’ve used the “Pitchfork” method to help define the trend line using the “major” impulse low that started this run in 1981.  the red line is a simple 1.27 expansion of the construction of the Pitchfork.  It CREATED the trend line … remember 1.27 is the square root of 1.618.  Also, note the blue arrow is the LARGEST measured move correction since the 1981 origin.  IF/WHEN we lose this CLIFF prices should fall to the level shown …

below is a DAILY chart showing a POSSIBLE count.  Note, looks like we are finishing up a 3rd w/ perhaps that break into the target shown.  Here’s what we need to really pay attention to … in the past, when this trend line was hit PRICE exploded.  We are, at a minimum, respecting this support but price action doesn’t appear to be very bullish in/around here.  Just take note … again, a break here will target the 123 level.

long bond daily count

long bond daily count

 

2014 is going to be one heck of a fun journey …

rock on, ok?

BART

 

 

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