I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!
With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.
I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.
So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.
One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …
One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.
If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.
If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.
key juncture for the bull/bear case … either way, I think we are terminal. it’s either HERE after the FED meeting OR we’ll cook it off and rally into the new year and then pull the plug. I have presented both pictures below ….something to keep in mind. what do “they” have in mind at the end of the week. a very large reweight is to occur on Friday w/ the introduction of Facebook into the S&P 500. so, that means there will be a LOT of STUFF for sale. Stuff is the proprietary list of names (supposedly) that will be worked (manipulated) by the arbs to get it done. in addition to that we have some extremely long term SELL patterns occurring across a multitude of instruments.
and, don’t forget the USD. that will be KEY moving forward as we’re certainly “thinking” we have carved out a bottom on the USD index. we’ll see ….
one last, nice full moon yesterday … just be aware that has proven, in the past, to heighten volatility.
so like NFP, I’ll be sitting this one out. no need to think I can play in the world of high frequency trading, hedge fund gorilla’s juggling dynamite and Goldman Sachs knowing exactly what is going to happen before it happens. I’ll check in around the Asian open to get a feel. Certainly hope that high on the EURO doesn’t get taken out. make it a great day …
PS — POUND pumped up today – a SURPRISE in their jobless numbers. Guess we are final “recovering” after the 4 year recovery? things that make you go hmmmm
of course it would have to pick the 3rd or highest target, but the high yesterday did fit into the wave structure correctly and was 1.618179 of the B leg extension and 1.618*a so that level was KEY. now, does it hold or not? if it does then we have begun an earnest wave down. I say earnest because of all the “other” charts that have been posted w/ regards to major patterns being completed across the board …
the key here is the USD index right now … as long as it keeps losing ground (I think it’s ending to the downside) then stocks will hold up, for a while. wasn’t it interesting that both APPLE and GOOG got some love yesterday (were up pretty big) but “everyone else” wasn’t …?
here’s the post showing the targets on the emini BEFORE NFP and days before anything occurred:
at 0830 EST today I’m going to be drinking a cup of coffee, more than likely meditating or playing some kick ass music but the farthest thing from my mind is going to be the NFP. this manipulated number has BILLIONS if not TRILLION of HFT (high frequency trading programs) going crazy on the BID/ASK w/ fraction of milliseconds execution. how can a pattern recognition trader in his home office compete w/ that … not that I can’t, I’m just not …
how about the EURO yesterday? some fundamental announcement about inflation (if you don’t have inflation could you have DEFLATION (?)) and the EURO gets hammered and then, out of no where, the BID comes in (read: our FED) and today wasn’t the day and KABOOM it’s gone higher …FX is a wonderful, 4 trillion dollar/day market. the gorillas are big and they juggle dynamite!
I digressed …here’s what I “see” – note a a very symmetrical 5 wave move down and now the “typical” three wave move up and a PATTERN completing in/around 1800. Upper targets are shown and they could be hit …
bottom line – grab a cup of Joe or
Green Tea and just sit on your hands. things will settle down, a pattern will appear and let it rip.