Took a peek at NVDA tonight and what came to my eye was the “look” of the “last” big move into a high from a measured move perspective and, yup, there it was – almost exactly equal to the length of the last move.
Honestly, I saw that but was “head faked” by the gigantic candle that brought us here so I used the all time low for the ABCD projection that is a little higher. But, tonight, it was the “shooting star” like nature of the candle that caught my eye. So, there it was and I, sorry folks, but I blew it. I did have the 1.27 extension on the chart and that “can” or “should” provide some resistance but, like anything, the level takes on more significance when you have a projection into that extension level. So, take that for what it’s worth.
Now, my “feel” is that we hit some resistance and perhaps a pullback and then up into the larger ABCD. That scenario, for now, would workout if that old trend line that got blown thru holds as support and NVDA bounces and goes up up up … this thesis is thawing and getting really cold if we get a weekly close below that old trend line.
I have a long term monthly count in my head that has a pullback/pause coming and then continuing higher. Yes, I think this is going higher. However, need it to get thru two things first:
Trend Line: note the long term log trend line from the first high 20 years ago the last major high (both regions denoted by the blue arrows) caused a pullback to occur … this trend line “should” at least offer some resistance. We blow thru it and this thing is in Zone 5 afterburner.
Right near the projected trend line resistance is the ABCD from the low down at .37 cents. The 1.27 extension “should” provide “some” resistance. The target for now: 444-454.
NO I’m not advocating a short here unless you have HUGE “fill in the blank” – I’m seeking an area of resistance that will enable a pause/pullback so I can manage risk and not try to get into a run away market something I have proven – again and again – to not be good at and, in fact, where a majority of my losses have come from. Trust me, I’ve had my fair share – BIG TIME. Maybe you have, will or won’t (it can be the “won’t” …usually isn’t but why not?) suffer losses but for me – I lose money trying to chase. PERIOD. So, I’ll see a level to try and get in IF a pullback ever occurs. For now … watch that 444-454 area.
Also, I expected the volume to be much higher or even spiking but, with this much thrust, this high, the volume is normal to a tad bit latent. Hmmmm …coupled w/ the RSI isn’t overbought or showing any divergences. I think this thing has some legs but, again, I’m watching this rocket ship from my TV or staring up in the sky.
For those who have an e-ticket on this one .. hope these targets / resistance areas will help you manage risk.
Speaking of losses … we had a saying when I used to fly w/ my trusty (loved everyone of them OBTW) pilots … when it comes to gear down landings, there are those who WILL and those who HAVE. NEVER those who WON’T.
It’s OK to lose money …it sucks, I know, but it’s part of the game.
I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.
In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.
have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.
when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!
so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.
the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …
NVDA is cooling its jets …
Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD
since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.
11/03/18 – pretty much a year later and we are, essentially back to the level shown below. While the initial levels shown below did cause a slight pullback the rocketship continued. Now, we have had a nice retracement that stopped pretty much at the .382 retracement from the all time low. Over the next couple weeks I would like a correction like the below to form .. from there we’ll know where we are w/ regard to this rocket ship and, probably, the entire market. Hope the below helps and thanks for asking about NVDA.
also, I do find it pretty amazing that the dashed purple measured move was exactly 1.618 the blue measured move and that is what ultimately stopped this parabolic rise.
11/12/2017 – been almost a year since we looked at NVDA. Below you’ll see the area ID’d for a correction. This level did hold NVDA at bay and the price stayed here for roughly 6 months and THEN EXPLODED. It’s going parabolic so at a certain point, it should fall like a rock but for now the beat goes on …
did some basic price techniques that show this area ‘should’ hold it or cause a pullback. it doesn’t have to but it appears that 1700% moves usually cause consolidations or corrections and, yes, you read that correctly: 1700%. What a rocket ship.
also, you’ll see what happens in the 3rd chart below what happens when the velocity final runs out of gas … it has to fall back down to earth.
what an amazing parabolic run and that’s what scares me right now … parabolic explosions do not end well so I expect now to very soon a very violent and CORRECTIVE move … however, I’ll watch this stock to find, hopefully, a pattern to BUY because this entire moves feels like a 3rd wave so another leg up is coming but for now … watch for weekly/monthly signal reversal candles to get defensive.
also, note the ‘extreme’ reading on the RSI. there is no bearish divergence, yet. so, it certainly appears that it needs/wants to correct from current levels to ‘set-up’ the bearish divergence play when it gets to new highs. but, again, this correction starting/coming is from a parabolic move so don’t get spooked if it’s violent and much more deeper than anticipated – it’s just working off the parabolic energy that blew it out.
the monthly signal reversal candle level is roughly 85, still a ways away. for now, that corresponds to the ‘top’ of the log trend line is broke out above earlier this month.