alert went off last week and the upper target zone on the DJ Transports has been hit ..on my monthly chart that level is 16180 and while I know a lot of you will just see a NUMBER and that’s cool but when you play w/ numbers EVERY day you see 1.618 … you study sooooo much that you understand “why” we don’t need decimal points and what they actually mean so you can move decimals point around.
if this is the high, I really have no idea if it is or it isn’t then the Architect has a really FUN sense of humor. think about it .. the “low” during the financial crisis on the cash SPX was 666. not kidding .. check it out. now, w/ one of the MAJOR indices topping out on the Golden Mean … well look at that.
Just a little higher and the Dow Jones Transportation Index hits a major long term target ….
10/28/20 -not trying to play Captain Obvious, but that was an ugly sell off today. as shown a couple days/week ago, the Transports were coming up to BIG resistance and/or topping in the area we charted. (FWIW – folks it was simply measured moves. The Transports had done the EXACT same move EVERY TIME except once that was 1.27*measured move)
so this update is to just say, it’s simply too early to put some downside targets on the blog. the correction (or is it a TOP) will produce a CORRECTIVE PATTERN. For now, just chill and wait for the Captain Obvious BUY to appear, if ever.
Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …
Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …
The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …
I’m going to give myself .003% w/ regards to the pattern being complete on the Dow Jones Transportation Average. It never did hit, exactly, the 7616 target …but w/ the big move that occurred yesterday odds are that we have a MAJOR top in place. If you have been following my blog this “target” area has been forecast for a while …
I’m a pure play pattern recognition technician. I pay major attention when using “nodes” that are 42,281 days ago. I also pay particular attention when this “node” from 10/29/1896 has been responsible for support and resistance at every major top and bottom in my lifetime.
we finished a MAJOR pattern …the reaction is not surprising.
I type this blog, today, not because I did anything special. Simply, for the past couple weeks I knew a pattern was completing on the transports in this area. And, having been down the travels of a professional trader and succumbing to expectations, having to be right, etc. I simply have now trained my persona to EXPECT NOTHING. It’s a PATTERN and it will either work or it won’t …
Now, that being said, I do ask that you (my fellow bloggers) think about what could potentially be at work here … did the major institutions know this level before I did? I doubt it … did the Federal Reserve have someone tell them that the Transports were going to encounter major resistance? Again, doubtful. Did Warren Buffet have this knowledge? No, I submit nobody was CONSCIOUSLY aware of this level. But, FOR WHATEVER REASON, the psyche, emotions, feelings FLIPPED ON A DIME. At the PATTERN level EVERYONE SOLD. Think about it … no CNBC, no FAST MONEY, no fundamental talking head pundit … a NUMBER was hit (natural square OBTW) and bada bing bong boom EVERYONE SOLD. Take a moment and think about that one …
It worked, the GOOG, YHOO and others didn’t … it’s all probability.
W/ that in mind, the PROBABILITY is rising, albeit slowly, that we are on the cusp of the biggest bear market we have EVER experienced in this country or world.
As for me, I’m just going to wait for a PATTERN and deploy capital …
if you have been following the posts over the past couple months, you’ll find that I’ve moved (pretty much alone) into a very cautious, if not outright bearish mindset based on the patterns that are appearing across the circle of life. one of the more prevalent patterns that I’ve been watching is the DJTA. from the all time low of 49 on 10/29/1896 it has been shown how this key “node” was the anchor behind support in 1987, 2000 and 2009. Using this node we can now project for targets on the DJTA. anywhere between 7400-7600 on the index should be extremely important resistance if not an a major inflection point. here is the chart (updated as of 11/30/2013)
so, we’ve got just a little bit more to the upside, so I decided to take a peak at the entire DJTA and look for patterns that support a bearish nature once this level is hit. take a view thru the charts, no screaming buys but I do see 1) parabolic rises, 2) monthly sell patterns appearing and 3) some stocks that topped years ago. so, be mindful of this level and, well, we’ll see if the patterns work or not ….
true confession time … some of you might know and some of you might not know that I spent my first 11 years out of college w/ the privilege and honor to serve in the United States Navy. I flew jets, saw the world and knew absolutely NOTHING about the economy. In fact, here’s the confession time, I have NEVER TAKEN AN ECON or BUSINESS COURSE in my life. I was a “mathematician” at the Naval Academy simply because 1) it wasn’t engineering, 2) I didn’t have to write papers, 3) I didn’t have to take a language and 4) there was no labs. Swear to my dying days that was my thought process … and, guess what, I graduated w/ a BS in Math (note irony of BS portion) AND w/ the rocking GPA of 2.08 in my major. 2.0 and go ….my Pops used to get on me (so to speak) and I always told him — “Pops, right now, a 2.6 is a 4.0 to me so PLEASE use that grading scale!”
why is this germane to this post, tonight? Well, I was taught/shown and devoured anything and everything that had to w/ charts because, well, I thought that is all there is ….
why is that germane … because I am long over trying to convince anyone that this stuff works. do the work, prove it to yourself or not but in the end it really doesn’t matter, does it? I firmly believe the market is musical and chart patterns that vibrate to the numbers which can be found in music. That’s my edge, take it or leave it …
so, tonight, when I heard the talking head pundits on a financial tv show start slobbering over the DJTA I thought “well, I haven’t looked at that puppy in a while so go take a look …”
always start from the beginning (or w/ the best most historical data)
the all time low was 10/29/1896 – interesting we are 8 days from 10/29 in 2013.
from that point I went forward in time and looked to see if this was a good “node” and it certainly proved to be ….! (yeah math)
from the 2000 top into the low in 2003 we have a PERFECT 50 percent retrace from that low of 49.59
if we use the low at 49.59 and PROJECT from 1896-2000 we NAIL the MAJOR resistance in/around 5500 ish on the DJTA.
from the high in 2007 to the 2009 low … .618 retracement (EXACT)
finally, using the 1896-2007 leg and projecting UP we get a zone of 7500-7650.
when I started this study of the DJTA I did not know any of these numbers or projections or moves would be present. it does not surprise me at all, but do you really think as the market was crashing down in 2009 that EVERYONE knew the .618 retracement level from 10/29/1896 was at that 2100 level?