DJTA from the beginning 10/29/1896 w/ a dose of a 2.6 is 4.0 to me
true confession time … some of you might know and some of you might not know that I spent my first 11 years out of college w/ the privilege and honor to serve in the United States Navy. I flew jets, saw the world and knew absolutely NOTHING about the economy. In fact, here’s the confession time, I have NEVER TAKEN AN ECON or BUSINESS COURSE in my life. I was a “mathematician” at the Naval Academy simply because 1) it wasn’t engineering, 2) I didn’t have to write papers, 3) I didn’t have to take a language and 4) there was no labs. Swear to my dying days that was my thought process … and, guess what, I graduated w/ a BS in Math (note irony of BS portion) AND w/ the rocking GPA of 2.08 in my major. 2.0 and go ….my Pops used to get on me (so to speak) and I always told him — “Pops, right now, a 2.6 is a 4.0 to me so PLEASE use that grading scale!”
why is this germane to this post, tonight? Well, I was taught/shown and devoured anything and everything that had to w/ charts because, well, I thought that is all there is ….
why is that germane … because I am long over trying to convince anyone that this stuff works. do the work, prove it to yourself or not but in the end it really doesn’t matter, does it? I firmly believe the market is musical and chart patterns that vibrate to the numbers which can be found in music. That’s my edge, take it or leave it …
so, tonight, when I heard the talking head pundits on a financial tv show start slobbering over the DJTA I thought “well, I haven’t looked at that puppy in a while so go take a look …”
- always start from the beginning (or w/ the best most historical data)
- the all time low was 10/29/1896 – interesting we are 8 days from 10/29 in 2013.
- from that point I went forward in time and looked to see if this was a good “node” and it certainly proved to be ….! (yeah math)
- from the 2000 top into the low in 2003 we have a PERFECT 50 percent retrace from that low of 49.59
- if we use the low at 49.59 and PROJECT from 1896-2000 we NAIL the MAJOR resistance in/around 5500 ish on the DJTA.
- from the high in 2007 to the 2009 low … .618 retracement (EXACT)
- finally, using the 1896-2007 leg and projecting UP we get a zone of 7500-7650.
when I started this study of the DJTA I did not know any of these numbers or projections or moves would be present. it does not surprise me at all, but do you really think as the market was crashing down in 2009 that EVERYONE knew the .618 retracement level from 10/29/1896 was at that 2100 level?
DJTA – please go up to the 7500 level ….