The thesis on the Transports is the ATH is a “BIG TOP.” Thus far, we haven’t really broken down that hard so only TIME will tell.
We like when .382 / .618 retracements are on top of each other and we have that a little lower in the high 10K’s and low 11k’s. This a HUGE target zone for the Transports. IF they slice thru that level then they “should” go down to the ABCD level and then attack the 50 year old trend line .. we break those levels and the corrective drop target (likes to target the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree – guideline NOT a rule) into 2K is certainly a reality. I’m blogging about this now because I have no earthly idea what would cause such a thump .. let’ face it, that’s pretty much a breakdown of the transportation sector, probably globally.
I’m going to stick w/ this count, more than likely getting proven wrong – certainly hope so …
from a technical perspective pay attention to:
obviously, the count …
the orange trend line (log) from the monthly, weekly – it appears that is what is holding it up
the “nested” head and shoulders .. breaking the neckline AND the orange log trend line should start this lower
.382 from the 90 year low 0f 13.43 is 11,277
the BUY pattern is down around 8986-9396 –
net, net we have two very important zones of support and then the looming trendline from 50 years ago.
hope, being a strategy, this analysis is COMPLETELY WRONG
Appears the static time cycle was off by a week or so from the top and the count hadn’t complete so that was to early. However, what we can see now is the sell pattern has completed and the potential of us going – big – has become more probable.
I’d look to be short Transports and the thesis is wrong above the most recent spike high.
January 18, 2023
I blogged a while ago about the Transports … if you do get the chance, check out the EWT professionals from, say, a year or so ago and how they did an amazing long term (100’s of years) of an aggregate Global Down Jones Transportation average … folks, the EWT pros are just stacking 5’s on top of each other at my “thesis” = big top. What do I think … well, they are the EWT pro’s and while I’m a CMT and taught it to CMTi students I can say I know corrections … to put together 100’s of years of counts is impressive. Either way … 5th waves are either finished or in work to finish. In our lifetime … it’s going night night folks. Might have already started …
Here’s a chart from a year or so ago … why my thesis on a “big ass top” … simple AB=CD .. but this is a MONTHLY AB=CD and the A leg starts back in July of 1932. So, from a “big deal” perspective, I think this is one …
Where are we now …?
I got asked on the thread about TIME and while I’m trying how to figure that into some training, I did “see” (after you look at charts so much you start to see things … maybe that’s it, I’m not sure what I see anymore LOL) …anyway, you could see the harmony so using a rudimentary cycle tool you can see that today was a good day for a “move” to occur. Additionally, used the “rock hitting the water” analogy for wave creation (depending on how high and how heavy the rock is dropped depends how big of a resulting wave we get) and from this you can see the waves propagate outward. Expanding the initial wave by 1.382, 1.618 and 1.8877 (musical note ratio of equal octave scale of music) you can see what happened to price .. but from a TIME perspective just follow up the arc to the 3 o’clock position and that is a good timing technique.
Based on todays action I would look to be short Transports and stop about yesterday’s high … sure seems like it might be TIME for the “train to leave the station.”
note, the symmetry of the moves … wave 1 = wave 5 and the internals of wave 3 are perfect … 1 = 5 and 2=4.
you’ll also see some numbers to the side those are projections showing the clear symmetry in the waves
lastly, we were so so close to hitting the 16180 or 1.618 high .. off by .1 percent. anyway…. if you open your eyes to the harmonic ratio you will see a ton of examples.
just to show you … here’s the USD versus the LOONIE on a LONG TERM monthly and note the top …
yes that’s a MONTHLY AB=CD and then, just for shits and giggles went up and tagged 1.618 and “night night.” Just saying … pattern on a harmonic number, pay attention.
alert went off last week and the upper target zone on the DJ Transports has been hit ..on my monthly chart that level is 16180 and while I know a lot of you will just see a NUMBER and that’s cool but when you play w/ numbers EVERY day you see 1.618 … you study sooooo much that you understand “why” we don’t need decimal points and what they actually mean so you can move decimals point around.
if this is the high, I really have no idea if it is or it isn’t then the Architect has a really FUN sense of humor. think about it .. the “low” during the financial crisis on the cash SPX was 666. not kidding .. check it out. now, w/ one of the MAJOR indices topping out on the Golden Mean … well look at that.
Just a little higher and the Dow Jones Transportation Index hits a major long term target ….
10/28/20 -not trying to play Captain Obvious, but that was an ugly sell off today. as shown a couple days/week ago, the Transports were coming up to BIG resistance and/or topping in the area we charted. (FWIW – folks it was simply measured moves. The Transports had done the EXACT same move EVERY TIME except once that was 1.27*measured move)
so this update is to just say, it’s simply too early to put some downside targets on the blog. the correction (or is it a TOP) will produce a CORRECTIVE PATTERN. For now, just chill and wait for the Captain Obvious BUY to appear, if ever.
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Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
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One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
UPS
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …
Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …
The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …
The S&P 500 has been climbing a stairway to Heaven ..
folks coming into 2015 we had some pretty strong patterns appearing. some worked and some didn’t – isn’t that what we expect? that being said, it was prudent to be cautious due to their presence.
here’s what I posted around a year ago:
“Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.”
so, while we’ve sold off for the past couple days let’s not go crazy. we have broken ONE swing low and that’s it, and it’s ONLY a weekly. WE HAVE NOT BROKEN A MONTHLY SWING LOW.
so, keep it ALL context of the big picture. We break a swing low on a MONTHLY and then a second then we have “issues.”
but for now, EVERYONE knows this puppy was on steroids and need some shaking out so let’s look for a pattern to BUY on a weekly (hint hint – it needs to breathe a bit) and if a bear I would still be very cautious.
what do we know and see … ?
we know a weekly swing low is about to be taken out and we’ll know that ONLY WITH THE CLOSE TOMORROW … we also know this has NEVER happened since March 2009 bull market began.
so, here’s the logic:
if weekly close below a swing low … get defensive.
if not, then keep in mind, we have pressure on the downside and it probably needs to breathe down so just chill …
enjoy the post below .. you’ll see some of the patterns were early, some were spot on. that’s not the point .. the entire post below is around the market action around a SWING LOW or SWING HI and to respect them — very very strongly.
let me know if you have any questions.
chart below is the ES .. note the red horizontal swing lows. those have never been broken on close. it might happen tomorrow …
Bart
S&P Futures Swing Lows since 2009
As we have discussed multiple times in this venue, the move since 2009 has been one heck of a ride. This chariot of stock market emotion is, literally, off the charts. It is at an extreme that has surpassed 1929, 2000 and 2007. For the past 6 months it has defied the powerful cycles and patterns we follow. However, we are at another “potential” inflection point and based on this weeks price action the chariot appears to be running out of gas. So, objectively, the cycles and patterns we follow appear to be working. Let’s don’t jump up and down and scream the BEAR MARKET is here till this chariot of the bulls breaks a swing low.
Below you’ll see a quick demonstration of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2002-2009. No patterns shown but just an example of the power of the swing low. Take note, when we lose one swing low there is usually some selling and then it bounces back and, here’s the key point,it fails to make a new high.Price might congest in this area (going either direction – up or down) and then it starts down. One thing to watch is “usually” the third swing low. When that gives away, selling is vicious. So, as much as we see MAJOR patterns completing let’s not get to confident. THE MAJOR US INDICES HAVE NOT BROKEN ONE SWING LOW IN 5 YEARS. Over the coming weeks, pay attention to these swing lows and swing highs (note the VIX chart – not one swing high has been taken out since 2007!)
Also, note the Dollar Index swing low track record and the very thin neckline that is coming into play a little lower. We’ve reached some daily extremes in metals (Gold, Silver) and the Euro and Pound. Sentiment means nothing when a multi year extreme is taken out and one that has been tested roughly 10 times since 2012. Folks, a lot of stops are hiding beneath 78-79 on the dollar index. Certainly hope support holds here …
so, keep an eye on the swing lows and highs over the coming days and weeks … note price action after a first or second swing low is taken out and, seriously consider safety if/when a 3rd long term swing low is taken out to the up or down side ….
September 17, 2014: below you will see some of the continuing work I have done on the transports. Quite simply, an incredible move …
there are, however, some things we can learn from this from a PATTERN perspective:
my “job” as a PATTERN chartist is to do my best to find the patterns and then present them to you, my readers. (thanks for the following also) As a PATTERN chartist you are NEVER wrong. The PATTERN works or it doesn’t it … it has NOTHING to do w/ you. On long term time frames, well, the patterns are “easier” to construct. An all time low to a “former” all time high gives you AMAZING projection capabilities. In fact, it is one of our easiest PATTERNS to form – the “zig zag or AB=CD” PATTERN. Folks this formed on the Transports and got SMOKED … not even a token of resistance. Wow …
when a “zig-zag” or “AB=CD” PATTERN fails it will usually go to 1.27 or 1.618 of the PATTERN.
so, what do we have “now”
note the all time low of 13.43 was on July 05,1932 a mere 30,024 days ago.
using that low and a 1.27 AB=CD we get a target of 9149
note, the “old” all time high in 2000 to the 2009 high was a 1.8877 extension (musical note). sometimes, the PATTERNS repeat the same harmonic. NOPE not today … blew threw it.
also, you can see the blue arrow projections and the “minimum” objective of the head and shoulders BULLISH top that formed comes in around 8880
some other projections shown for the Transports
Since this move is going PARABOLIC it’s sometimes helpful to bring out the old geometry … this is simply the technique of how to draw a circle from 3 points. (full disclosure: I have NO IDEA where the GRAVITY CENTER is going to end up.) Note, when using this technique our gravity center is, basically, the zone for the past major top in the Transports.
finding the gravity center
now that we have found the gravity center we can get to work ….
note, the gravity center (blue horizontal line) is the “reason” for the major tops
note from 1994-1999 price “hugs” and rolls right up into the top. that tells us we have a nice gravity center …
note also that when we draw, from the gravity center, harmonic trend lines we find the “major reason” for support and resistance …
when projecting from a neckline, remember, the depth of the neck is how to project UP (in this case) to project a minimum target. (again, it’s minimum target, NOT the target or though it can be)
gravity center harmonics
CLIFF NOTES: this is an incredibly powerful move. Some more targets are coming into play as noted above. when the PATTERN around 7600 failed the vacuum up was to be expected.
June 12, 2014: more than likely, you saw my long term transports post a couple months ago and as this target got attacked I was truly looking for a “little” resistance. I mean, come on, it was the ALL TIME LOW to the “old” ALL TIME HIGH and we have a 1.618 extension RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LEVEL. As patterns go .. this was a doozie. However, as patterns go, it failed. Folks, it didn’t even put up a fight …
so, I hit “erase all” on the chart and, quite frankly, left it alone. the joy of patterns and charting …
I went back to it tonight and I still think we have a pattern forming so I went back and said “self, what did it do the last time we surged past an old high and into a new high? Well, guess what? It surged thru the 1.618 extension in 2007-2008 an stopped on the 1.8877 extension! TILT … 1.8877? Well, that is exactly a major seventh ration in the equal octave scale of music. So .. perhaps it did that again? Please see below …we smacked into the minor and, quite frankly, the major is still out there. However — this sure looks like a MONTHLY 3 DRIVES TO A TOP pattern.
Keep the mindset (defensive) of ‘breaking a swing low’ …until we do break a weekly or monthly swing low this puppy will still keep running but if we break 2 or more weekly swing lows … we could see this thing drop to the old highs at 5600. Stay tuned …
What a run! Hugh?
Also, please be advised that a reader corrected me on the price and time of the old time low. I did some more research and it appears the low was in the 1930’s around 30 points lower than the one in the late 1800’s. Negligible when we are up at 8000 BUT extremely important.
When you look at the Yahoo Finance Chart below – try to disregard this is the entire life cycle of the Transports – and just look at the symmetry of the 3 drives to a top pattern that is appearing.
notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top
CLIFF NOTES: please see below to understand the importance of our recent high at 577. The long term PATTERN from the all time low completed. Now, we have the beginning formation of the trusted and true head and shoulders pattern on the DJ Utility Index. Why is this important …? Well, look below at the fractal that existed at the top in 2007-2008. It’s exactly the same PATTERN. So, in a nutshell:
we completed a major pattern on the Utilities up at 577.
a head and shoulders pattern is forming the right shoulder, now.
the same FRACTAL is present at the time, here’s a cool video to show fractals at work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVwoYVkg-m4
folks it’s a PATTERN — it WILL work or it WON’t but it’s a PATTERN.
fractal pattern on the Utilities
4 hour chart showing formation of potential head and shoulders
April 05, 2014
CLIFF NOTES: I am a patter recognition chartist. I am NOT trying to be overtly bullish or bearish. Just using this forum to show the PATTERNS that area ppearing.
On the DJ Transports we have completed a MAJOR AB=CD sell pattern w/ a 1.618 extension. That is bearish. It’s particularly bearish because the pattern using the former all time highs and lows. I am also showing the Utilities almost completing a very bearish pattern. Again … heads up folks, these are NOT 60 minute intraday scalping trades. These are MAJOR patterns that bear close watching.
CLIFF NOTES: more than likely, you saw my long term transports post a couple months ago and as this target got attacked I was truly looking for a “little” resistance. I mean, come on, it was the ALL TIME LOW to the “old” ALL TIME HIGH and we have a 1.618 extension RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LEVEL. As patterns go .. this was a doozie. However, as patterns go, it failed. Folks, it didn’t even put up a fight …
so, I hit “erase all” on the chart and, quite frankly, left it alone. the joy of patterns and charting …
I went back to it tonight and I still think we have a pattern forming so I went back and said “self, what did it do the last time we surged past an old high and into a new high? Well, guess what? It surged thru the 1.618 extension in 2007-2008 an stopped on the 1.8877 extension! TILT … 1.8877? Well, that is exactly a major seventh ration in the equal octave scale of music. So .. perhaps it did that again? Please see below …we smacked into the minor and, quite frankly, the major is still out there. However — this sure looks like a MONTHLY 3 DRIVES TO A TOP pattern.
Keep the mindset (defensive) of ‘breaking a swing low’ …until we do break a weekly or monthly swing low this puppy will still keep running but if we break 2 or more weekly swing lows … we could see this thing drop to the old highs at 5600. Stay tuned …
What a run! Hugh?
Also, please be advised that a reader corrected me on the price and time of the old time low. I did some more research and it appears the low was in the 1930’s around 30 points lower than the one in the late 1800’s. Negligible when we are up at 8000 BUT extremely important.
When you look at the Yahoo Finance Chart below – try to disregard this is the entire life cycle of the Transports – and just look at the symmetry of the 3 drives to a top pattern that is appearing.
notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top
