If you’ve been following me, I saw a very nice SELL PRICE and TIME PATTERN on the Utilities. It worked for a while and then failed as the Utilities continued to climb. I was stopped out of the TBT long I tried and, while not exactly correlated, you can sometimes look at the Utilities and Rates. Figured w/ the SELL PATTERN coming on the Utilities then the TBT should go up. They failed. Back to the drawing board.
so, with fresh eyes, again, I took a look at the Utilities and – again – I see a long term SELL Utilities hitting right now. So, again, folks I’m a pure play pattern recognition investor. ZERO fundamentals. A lot of times the PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t … probability is in my favor.
for your purview, the DJ Utilities Index and the XLU. Also, threw in a chart showing the 30 year long bond overlaid on the DJ Utilities for what it’s worth. look at the divergence over the past year or so … hmmmm.
11/25/2018 – you can see some of the former work on the Dow Jones Utility Index here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/01/02/i-still-think-this-is-a-big-deal-utilities-an-update-and-another-update/
as you can see, the index went right up into the target area and fell pretty nicely. that being said, it has held up rather nicely and just recently went up and tagged a nice retracement level. probability is that it should start back down .. but, there’s the deal, look at the stair steps (higher lows) on the index and as I looked at this monthly chart I noticed – there has never been an AB-CD type corrective move. so, we are setting up for the first one in roughly 40 years. IF, the big if, we get down as shown by the red arrows on the current price chart THEN we’ll have to give it a shot and buy it ..
it will be the first one in 40+ years.
stay tuned. this strength is interesting …
hope all had a wonderful weekend and great time w/ family and friends if celebrating Thanksgiving!
1/2/2018- after the failure of the measured move target, we came up with some additional targets. it certainly appears we have TWO 3-drives to a top patterns coming together w/ very nice time symmetry. not to sound the alarm here BUT this has the makings of a very important and large top for the Utility sector.