yen – Bart's Charts

USDYEN – another key pattern

last post on USDJPY: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/11/usd-vs-yen-very-key-level-now/

this is a ‘nice’ Gartley SELL pattern and, to be honest here, would sure like it to “work” as I want (hope (a strategy)) for a move lower down into 110’s to complete 6+ year triangle … as we have discussed, triangles have 5 legs a-b-c-d-e and, right now, my hope ( a strategy) is that we are carving out the “e” wave and then .. game on for an explosive move w/ the USD versus the YEN.

if we blow thru “d” will have to get out the eraser and take a peak …

either way, believe 2022 will see the USD EXPLODE HIGHER against the YEN.

close 2021 w/ light, energy and smiles …

here’s the big picture “thesis” on the USD vs JPY

40+ years of trendlines hitting the USD vs JPY

USD vs YEN – VERY key level – NOW

note all the “math” coming into the 114 area being hit .. now. KEY LEVEL

weekly look …

here’s the gameplan, at least for now .. multi year triangle w/ one more leg down …

Math we like … EUR vs JPY

believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …

I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …

in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.

I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.

Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.

let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …

oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….

good weekend to you – Bart

03/08/2020 Asian Open Update

the USD vs YEN cross rate is a BIG FX pair to monitor for equity strength and weakness. we had a nice ‘nominal’ 1100 point gap down to the open the DOW futures in Asia and a 20 percent drop in crude. rocking and rolling folks …

as the night progresses, just watch 102.06-103.20 on the USD vs JPY and, a little lower 100.62. We’ve already sliced thru 2 years of support – easily – but do look for these levels to offer a modicum of support over the coming hours/day (s?)

watch the USD vs JPY YEN chart below and these key levels for support of the US equities

USD vs Japanese Yen coming close to resolution (?)

10/22/2017 – we discussed the ‘RSI SHIFT’ below. taking note of it again …have been on the sidelines w/ regards to the USD vs YEN as I’m waiting for resolution of the downtrend line shown …

note: still in the ‘maybe’ camp of 2 being done … so were going to be watching the YEN very closely in the coming days/weeks. In the past, YEN strength hasn’t been too good for US Stocks …

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

here’s some work that I’ve been doing on the YEN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=yen

just taking a look at the weekly RSI and, when I trained under Constance Brown she said “the market will tell you when it’s shifting, watch the RSI zones for clues.”

as you can see below … the, what I believe, multi-decade wave 5 occurred in 10/2011 and a VERY powerful advance occurred. You’ve read about my chaos w/in the YEN and how I got stopped out something like 6-8 times (I’ve tried to flush it from my memory) in around 76 ..(yes, 76! and, no one said this was going to be easy!) for what I was expecting was going to be a monstrous ride.

anyway, note how support SHIFTED up after the decades long bear trend … (see dashed green lines) and how, after this correction – which might be pretty much complete it the support and resistance has now shifted down (see dashed red lines) ….

I’m in no mans land right now .. while I believe another advance of the USD against the YEN may be forthcoming I would have really liked to see the RSI resistance SHIFT back up into the 80’s. So .. while our ‘count’ isn’t complete in this wave, I’m going to step aside and see what happens the rest of the month.

as you can see w/ the ???? it’s time to sit on my hands and see what plays out … that’s only me. you do what you want and follow our plan, as always.

Bart

USD vs Japanese Yen

here’s some work that I’ve been doing on the YEN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=yen

just taking a look at the weekly RSI and, when I trained under Constance Brown she said “the market will tell you when it’s shifting, watch the RSI zones for clues.”

as you can see w/ the ???? it’s time to sit on my hands and see what plays out … that’s only me. you do what you want and follow our plan, as always.

Bart

Truncation … low in USD vs JPY in place?

the more I look at:

USD Index “low” in place and advancing …
thrust/momentum from the lows in the USD vs JPY …

the more a case can be made for truncation as shown below … so, here’s the other side of the coin. going to have to go for it w/ a stop and see what happens … just waiting for a buy pattern to test the thesis.

Bart

is the Sun going to set or rise in Japan (aka the Land of the Rising Sun)

CLIFF NOTES: for the reasons shown below, 102.70 is the KEY level for the USD vs JPY. If we exceed this level, then believe the USD will begin to soar again vs the YEN.

Going to try and work thru the entire “Elliott is good // Elliott is bad argument” by simply saying when it’s an easy count use it and when it’s not .. it’s probably correcting and if you can’t “see” it immediately then bail to another technical tool box. In the case of the USD vs JPY the weekly and daily count CLEARLY shows 5 waves up from the all time high of the JPY vs $$$.

We made the high around the first of the year and the pair has been consolidating/correcting ever since … the BULLISH aspect of this correction is it has held the .382 from the wave 4 triangle low … that’s bullish for the USD vs JPY.

What’s interesting to note is we have had two sell patterns that have “worked” but have not been able to drop below the 101 handle ….take a peak:

now … here’s where Elliott can help you. In the chart below we have dropped down to a 2 hour chart and we have two potentialities occurring … either we have a 3 that subdivided and 4 just completed which calls for this pair to fall (JPY strength) OR we have a a-b-c correction complete and the USD might begin to skyrocket against the JPY (which OBTW will cause the Nikkei 225 to skyrocket also …the GOOD THING – we know exactly where we are w/ regards to 102.70. Check it out:

this is showing 4 complete and we should be going DOWN

this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it's going to take off — this is the STRONG dollar case and we completed an a-b-c correction and it’s going to take off

now, below is the NK 225 futures (continuous) overlaid on top of the USD vs JPY. NOTE THEY ARE ALMOST MIRROR IMAGES OF EACH OTHER …

NK 225 overlaid on USD vs JPY (notice how synchronized they are)

last thing .. notice the TIME component of this correction. Since the all time low of the USD vs JPY (10/2011) the corrective timing has been about right for this most recent correction. TIME is a big deal so, perhaps, we won’t see any lower in the USD vs JPY and it’s time to rumble? My eye tells me the pattern in PRICE isn’t quite done going lower but we have to trade what we see and not believe. Standing by w/ levels above noted …

the TIME component of this correction is complete

USD vs JPY redux

folks, I’ll say it once, I’ll say it again … PATTERNS PATTERNS PATTERNS. Check out this post on the JPY and then compare everything that has happened … they help you manage risk and therefore they work:

relative strength of GOLD vs the USDJPY importance

so, where are we now? let’s take a peak. first chart is actually showing another pattern complete and the BUY USD vs JPY that we posted on June 27, 2014. Highlighted areas are the ones to watch.

now, take a peak and we have completed (or a little higher) another pattern on the IMPORTANT USD vs JPY YEN cross. also, note the the N225 futures are up at the .786.

now time to go to the relative strength chart (GOLD / USD vs JPY).

GOLD/USD vs JPY with USD vs JPY overlaid (red line) NOTE HOW THEY ARE EQUAL AND OPPOSITE!

what does a BUY pattern mean w/ this ratio? take note – the equal and opposite inflection occurs w/ regards to the USD vs JPY cross. So, our thesis is IF the BUY of the ratio holds THEN the SELL $$$ vs JPY patterns that are completing/have completed will cause the YEN to strengthen for another corrective leg. Additionally, this will foreshadow weakness in the N225.

see how that works …? Patiently wait for PATTERNS to form, work them into intermarket and ratio analysis and then pull the trigger when you feel like jumping into a 5 TRILLION dollar a day market w/ gorilla’s juggling dynamite from your simple and humble home office listening to Pink Floyd ….

Let’s complete the YEN circle of life ….

here’s the ETF for Japan … EWJ

Tag: yen

USDYEN – another key pattern

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40+ years of trendlines hitting the USD vs JPY

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USD vs YEN – VERY key level – NOW

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Math we like … EUR vs JPY

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03/08/2020 Asian Open Update

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USD vs Japanese Yen coming close to resolution (?)

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USD vs Japanese Yen

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Truncation … low in USD vs JPY in place?

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is the Sun going to set or rise in Japan (aka the Land of the Rising Sun)

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USD vs JPY redux

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