Tag: $indu

the Big Short (a pun)

below you will find the SHORT DOW ETF called SDOW. it’s pretty fascinating if you think about it or look at it .. your preference.

basically right around the start of the pandemic around the week of 02/14/20 the volume was HUGE and the SDOW went on a nice run higher. well played … but since then it’s down basically 10X and there is still a lot of buying …

look to the far left and this ETF fell so far and nobody was interested and then last year hit and someone/somebody has been buying and selling this security …

now, of late, if you look closer to the last couple candles and corresponding volume you’ll see that the most BUYING volume ever has come in AND the price as pretty much stabilized at/around the low 30’s ….

you going to BUY SDOW down here …?

YEW ….

I like to draw circles … just work w/ me. how the 1987 low and recent high are connected by geometry

a couple weeks ago I posted this: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/

it was some geometric work I did on JPM and ‘real time’ the top of a circle. I do have a theory of ‘why’ this technique works in projecting support or resistance but I’ll leave that to me and some of my friends. it really doesn’t matter – does it?

i’ve been silent on the blog world for a bunch of reasons .. the main reason is a loss that occurred in my family and I really haven’t felt like doing much.  but, the emails have been coming in about the most recent moves.

if you go back and read you’ll find that I was pretty defensive for the entire summer .. did we/me miss some of the last part of these moves – yes but ultimately, the only buy pattern around was ABX and GE.  TBT was also a nice play but the chaos of the euphoria just had me step aside.

so in order to get back into it, I put some Enigma on the Spotify and, specifically, Morphing Thru Time .. pretty ‘trip-in-dicular’ to say the least.

I called up the Dow Jones and could just see the connection between the 1987 low and this most recent high. Tops of circles are cool.

Bart

the finishing of the Octave .. just a little higher UPDATED

08/05/2017 – continuing to follow our target for the DJIA in/around the 22,346 area.  I believe that the market is harmonic and vibratory.  Over the course of the years I hope to have shown people how to use patterns to manage risk. sometimes they are right and sometimes they aren’t …

so, here’s an updated monthly chart showing the approaching Octave target.  does the market have to respect it – OF COURSE NOT – but the math doesn’t lie so I’ve been waiting to see what happens for a while.  come on you DJIA – just a little higher and let’s see what happens!

also, note the square out in TIME and PRICE that occurred (pretty much) on Friday.

44190 calendar days since the all time low in 1896.  44190/2 = 22094 about 2-3 points from the close.  close enough?

It’s all probability folks …

have a great weekend.

Bart

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

12/16/2016 – just updating this chart to show some potential targets I’ve been watching on the Dow Jones. I don’t know how high it’s going folks but I feel very confident that 2009-now is a BIG 5.  Like a big 5 since the 1800’s five …

if you are REALLY into this stuff like I am … take some time to read the blog below.  here’s the targets for now and as always let me know if you have any questions.

basically, over the coming months is another 10 percent move that out of the question?

shown is the ‘basic’ AB=CD from the all time low in the late 1800’s up into the 2007-2008 top and then projecting … AB=CD, then some octave stuff and geometry stuff.  Hang on … it’s going to be a wild ride.

I want to see if the music is math and what happens when we complete the OCTAVE …

Bart

page_16-12-16_11-48-40

 

What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs.  I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.”  I think it is …

  • I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
  • Background:
    • the frequency of a string is:
      • inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
      • directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
      • here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses

Equal_Temperament_Scale

  • Here is the math:
    • 28.48 LN = 3.3492
    • 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
    • anti-log of XXX = YYY
    • plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA

 

  • For example:
    • NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
    • 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
    • 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
      • interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
      • some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
        • 3.3492+.07937005 (note the  number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
        • anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683

is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?

Page_15-10-04_10-16-03

So what does this mean?  Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question?  Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.

Here’s a look on the way down …

Page_15-10-04_10-35-53

Happy Hunting and study up …

Bart

the finishing of the Octave .. just a little higher

12/16/2016 – just updating this chart to show some potential targets I’ve been watching on the Dow Jones. I don’t know how high it’s going folks but I feel very confident that 2009-now is a BIG 5.  Like a big 5 since the 1800’s five …

if you are REALLY into this stuff like I am … take some time to read the blog below.  here’s the targets for now and as always let me know if you have any questions.

basically, over the coming months is another 10 percent move that out of the question?

shown is the ‘basic’ AB=CD from the all time low in the late 1800’s up into the 2007-2008 top and then projecting … AB=CD, then some octave stuff and geometry stuff.  Hang on … it’s going to be a wild ride.

I want to see if the music is math and what happens when we complete the OCTAVE …

Bart

page_16-12-16_11-48-40

 

What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs.  I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.”  I think it is …

  • I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
  • Background:
    • the frequency of a string is:
      • inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
      • directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
      • here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses

Equal_Temperament_Scale

  • Here is the math:
    • 28.48 LN = 3.3492
    • 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
    • anti-log of XXX = YYY
    • plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA

 

  • For example:
    • NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
    • 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
    • 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
      • interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
      • some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
        • 3.3492+.07937005 (note the  number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
        • anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683

is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?

Page_15-10-04_10-16-03

So what does this mean?  Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question?  Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.

Here’s a look on the way down …

Page_15-10-04_10-35-53

Happy Hunting and study up …

Bart

this takes time to digest … slow down and read/study it

 

CLIFF NOTES: the market has rallied since the August lows … this move up is impulsive which give probability to the bulls that were going to continue. that being said, SELL patterns are present as of the past couple days so I expect resistance or a churn for the next week.  In looking at the DOW please read below – sure looks like it wants to go up to 22,000.

 

I am posting this again because I want to spend some time “looking” at the picture that is created below.  It’s using LOG’s and Musical scale properties and, if you study it you’ll see how the market “zoomed” up into the next octave and that’s exactly where it’s been stuck for the past 15 years.  Most, if not all of the turns have been one of these levels ….so, to “end” the next octave we need to get up to 22,000. That’s another 20% or so … it sure seems to ‘want’ to do it.

Just a pattern guy and I sense/feel the craziness creeping in all over …. but that really doesn’t matter does it?  The market DOES WHAT IT WANTS and a “sprint” up to 22,000 on the DOW just doesn’t seem out of the question.

Here’s the art … just study the picture and see the math/music at work .. it’s an incredible picture.  Also, note the importance of the major third.  folks you can’t make this up … that ratio was present at the 1987 high and the 2007 high. Is that a coincidence? Someone please prove me wrong here OR the biggest hedge funds in the world – Citadel, Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen, etc – were all waiting right at those NUMBERS to short the market.  Me, I don’t think so … no, I think there is something actually more powerful at work.  But we’ll leave that for a discussion face to face over a nice glass of wine …

either way, here’s the chart again and another chart showing the “as above” – “so below” technique … again, looks like 22,000 is the target.

enjoy and let me know if you have any questions … one last, read below regarding the EXACT high on the NYSE using LOGS and the price of the all time low (move the decimal)  – folks you can’t make this shit up.

Bart

page_15-10-04_10-16-03Page_15-11-04_20-12-58

 

What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs.  I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.”  I think it is …

  • I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
  • Background:
    • the frequency of a string is:
      • inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
      • directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
      • here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses

Equal_Temperament_Scale

  • Here is the math:
    • 28.48 LN = 3.3492
    • 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
    • anti-log of XXX = YYY
    • plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA

 

  • For example:
    • NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
    • 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
    • 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
      • interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
      • some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
        • 3.3492+.07937005 (note the  number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
        • anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683

is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?

Page_15-10-04_10-16-03

So what does this mean?  Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question?  Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.

Here’s a look on the way down …

Page_15-10-04_10-35-53

Happy Hunting and study up …

Bart

musical note E, 1896, 1987, 2007 and now

What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs.  I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.”  I think it is …

  • I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
  • Background:
    • the frequency of a string is:
      • inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
      • directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
      • here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses

Equal_Temperament_Scale

  • Here is the math:
    • 28.48 LN = 3.3492
    • 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
    • anti-log of XXX = YYY
    • plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA

 

  • For example:
    • NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
    • 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
    • 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
      • interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
      • some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
        • 3.3492+.07937005 (note the  number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
        • anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683

is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?

Page_15-10-04_10-16-03

So what does this mean?  Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question?  Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.

Here’s a look on the way down …

Page_15-10-04_10-35-53

Happy Hunting and study up …

Bart

CHANCE favors the prepared mind …

I have learned almost everything I know about the TRADERS MINDSET from Larry Pesavento of http://www.tradingtutor.com.  He first introduced me to harmonic pattern recognition and after about 6 months I had trained my eye (thru his tutelage) to understand and see the swings.  Others – Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast) have fined tuned my understanding of vibrations, patterns and the “other stuff” acting on the market.  I am so thankful for their friendship and tutelage.

Larry skyped and emailed me this AM (Sunday) and I thought I would share.

I felt compelled to attach the following video and charts – it’s simply PROBABILITY and, more than likely, VERY LOW PROBABILITY that the market will gap down on Monday.  IF it does then there is a PROBABILITY (again, probably very low) that the market could suffer significant losses.

So, give me or Larry NO credit for trying to be a “market timer” or “crash caller” or any of that nonsense.

It’s like this … before I became a student (always learning) of the markets I had the opportunity to fly for the Navy and attend TOPGUN.  At TOPGUN we planned missions and ALWAYS “what if’d” E V E R Y T H I N G.  Why?  Because , at 1.0+ IMN (indicated mach number) shit happens fast and if you haven’t thought of everything BEFORE the flight then when it happens you hesitate and then the shit hits the fan.

“He who hesitates is lost.”

The other thing I learned is there are A L W A Y S “causal factors” or “links in the chain” which forewarn events, mishaps, crashes to happen.  MOST OF THE TIME, not always, YOU HAVE TIME TO REACT.

So, simply put this in your portfolio or trader gameplan … it’s that simple.

IF **** THEN ***.

TRADE YOUR GAMEPLAN and rock on, always.

Bart

PS – Larry has been TRADING in the markets for 50+ years. (yes, you read that right) so when he “foot stomps” I listen.  How many of us have that longevity in the market and can, as you read below, actually discuss trading DURING THE 1987 crash? Just saying …

From Larry:

“As we come into this week’s trading we are looking at a very similar situation that occurred in 1987. I’ve sent out the previous video to explain this pattern. In 1987 I was heavily involved on the short side of the market looking for a big drop. In August I had purchased October put options. On Friday, October 16 the Dow Jones was down hundred and three points at options expiration and I have made a substantial amount of money. However, had I purchased November put options the amount would have been 50 times greater. Crashes do not happen very often in fact usually once in every generation i.e. 80 years or so! Everyone thinks of the Federal Reserve has the back of the banks and the public for investing in stocks. But what if they don’t? Unfortunately I’m not able to bring out a lot of charts to verify this but we’ve done this to the videos this weekend. The one chart that I did attach year that I think is very important is the one that shows a lack of volatility in the market. This chart also shows the reverse point wave pattern i.e. expanding triangle pattern that is so bearish!

In order for this crash scenario to unfold we must be down sharply this week. Keep in mind that this is a rare occurrence if it does happen but the pattern is certainly similar in the state of the market is certainly similar as we have more declining issues than advancing issues. On Friday there were 10 times more issues declining than advancing at the New York Stock Exchange. Declining issues at the NASDAQ were 2 to 1 over advancing issues, not to bullish in my opinion.

volatility 1929 1987 2015 (2)

all probability … check out Asia and, if you want to wake up and check out Europe around 3:30 AM (EST) then look for volatility in those markets as a roadmap – perhaps.

we all know this market can and will never go down anyway …

make it a great weekend.

Bart

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