10/22/2017 – pound smacked into a wall of China resistance area. this one is tough … as you can see below, we did NOT work the triangle correctly and the rally continued into the polarity zone. the reason it’s tough is because of the very nice and basic time cycle shown below. it’s almost perfect and, for roughly 30 years, this cycle has caused the pound to explode higher … the ‘middle cycle’ in the time of 2000-2002 based for a while before exploding. so, do you trust POLARITY of the CYCLE? Call me crazy but I’m in favor of the cycle for now and will be looking for a BUY opportunity over the coming weeks/months as the ENTIRE WORLD has stops right above the Polarity Wall of China resistance area ….I’ll just try to look for a pattern.
it will work or it won’t … a very interesting time indeed.
06/04/2016 – fist off, Gerard, thanks for visiting the site, asking questions and watching this AMAZING development.
Folks, I honestly don’t know which way the “vote” will go but it ranks up there w/ one of the biggest deals out there. Easily, the vote will “kick the can down the road” OR destroy the Euro-zone. It’s that simple …
this is a big deal … but PRICE and TIME tell all. So,, here’s an updated view of the pound. I really don’t know how to play this .. I will watch and sit on my hands as the vote is announced. the VOLATILITY in the FX markets is going to be huge. As a sample, I’m going to show charts of the “peg” being removed on the Swiss versus Euro. It looks so easy – but trust me, unless you have a lightning quick professional trading station – STAY AWAY. If you look at the BIG CANDLES on this chart, you’ll see, after the carnage, there has ALWAYS been a chance to get in …
Head and Shoulders Scenario (first chart): as for me, IF (I have no idea if it’s going to happen OR not) the trend line breaks then how about a shorting a retest of 23 year long neckline? wish I could provide more “exact” detail .. I can’t. What we can do is see that the Pound vs USD has not closed below the neck line in 30 years.
Bullish PATTERN foldback Scenario (second chart): just follow the bouncing ball … the swings have been EXACT.
Hope this helps .. no bias, no thinking, just look at the charts and go w/ the flow ….
Folks, this ranks up there as a “big deal” so watch this one carefully as theirs a potential the POUND busts wide open and moves 3000+ pips if we have a MONTHLY closing below the neckline.
Summary: perhaps, it’s my background as a Naval Aviator for 11 years. I just read a post about “fighter pilots and organizations” and one of the points was the art of the debrief. so, as I post “stuff” on this blog I attempt to make it all “real time” because those snap shots allow me to “adapt and overcome” (my favorite Naval Aviation saying) and see where we are in the game plan moving forward.
Cliff notes: the first target we had for the dollar index has been taken out but we have another target, shown below, that “should” cause resistance/pull back. Folks, this thing could break wide open and explode (reference HD pattern) but I’m looking to “enter” and will wait for a pattern to form so I can MANAGE RISK. I will not “just enter” and put a random stop “there” …. no, I will wait and wait and wait and wait and wait till the pattern appears. So, here’s another one below:
Euro makes up, roughly 50%+ of the index so what is going on there ….?
how about the Swissy …?
how about the GBP vs USD?
YEN vs USD …. nice little pattern up here (note NK225 yet to hit .786 and make higher highs …)
USD vs CAD — either a flat to end at 1.0850 or lower. Key is simple .. WATCH FOR 5 WAVES TO UNFOLD DOWN and then BUY at/around levels indicated for another run …
Aussie vs USD ….
the post below is from February 13, 2014 and I believe it’s important to rehash the most recent moves in the US Dollar. Believe this move has room to go, however, we need to patiently wait for a corrective pattern to form.
this move in the dollar is real so try to get long in the most risk adverse manner possible. as you can see from the post below as the 79 level was repeatedly getting tested I did, admittedly, start to question my strong dollar scenario. that was surely one ugly level for a while but I do think the dollar will strengthen into the low 90’s target that we have been calling for.
take your time and go thru the post below …some AMAZING geometry. Also, remember, ALL of my charts are REAL TIME w/ no backward look .. they are as I saw it.
February 13, 2014
Early in my career I had the wonderful opportunity to get training from Joe Di Napoli (www.fibnodes.com) Highly recommend learning some of his techniques but, most importantly, his understanding of the market structure and the players in the game. One of his favorite sayings is we must realize that “you are entering into a world where the market is truly a caged gorilla juggling dynamite and – the dynamite is lit!”
Additionally, if you have been reading this blog you’ll realize it’s focused 1) 100% on PATTERNS and 2) it’s unique value is tying PATTERNS into the circle of life (fixed income, equities, commodities, FX). W/in the context of the circle, the gorilla is the Foreign Currency Market. According to the Bank for International Settlements – the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.
The Dollar Index is somewhat important as it represents a basket of 9 currencies – the Euro representing a vast majority of it at 58%.
For all intensive purposes – it’s been “stuck” in a 4 cent range but PATTERNS suggest we are “prepping” for a big move … so, in order to get a “feel” for where we MIGHT be let’s go back to the “beginning” at 71 ish and work thru to present…
CLIFF NOTES: the BULLISH thesis is that after the 5 waves down from 121, a 3 wave (at a minimum) corrective pattern should ensue (A-B-C) and therefore the bounce has farther to travel. Additionally, it could mark a MAJOR low and we are starting back up for 5 waves. The BULLISH consensus for the US DOLLAR is that this move UP is not complete. Please see this chart below … and, notice the EXACT move up from the PATTERN shown above at the “2 or B” level.
so where are we now? Without showing an “elaborate” count, we can see by the chart below that we smacked right into a “big picture” .618 price projection that had it’s genesis from the 71 price low.
here’s the possible bullish count from the “2 or B” low that shows a POTENTIAL 3rd wave underway. IF the count is correct, then the 79 level has to hold and is very crucial as it suggest that the 3rd wave should begin …soon and UP we go.
now, we need to drill down one more time frame – that of the 240 minute chart to see what we have going on. YES, we have a BULLISH PATTERN on the US Dollar at 80.05-80.08. In order for this entire thesis to be correct, then I believe this pattern needs to hold for the strength in the US Dollar to begin…
PATTERNS fail …they are an EDGE and over time they have been statistically proven to give us an edge. But, what if this pattern does fail? Take a close look at the following two charts … I have not shown this before, but we need to take into account the 5 wave move down from 121 and the .618 price projection — they are starting to form a huge B wave triangle. The 5 wave move into the low is a BIG BIG A and then current structure is forming a BEARISH TRIANGLE w/ the ‘c’ portion just completing (due to the exact nature of the .618 price projection) and ‘d’ and ‘e’ to come …also note the purple trend lines. One forms a head and shoulders and the other is showing the support for the US Dollar since the ‘b’ wave low …
here’s one last thing to consider …. take note of the measured move UP move from the past and what happened after it completed … a bearish omen?
w/ the deflationary forces present, the dollar SHOULD strengthen. A well formed count supports that and a PATTERN very very close also holds that thesis as correct and positive. The first is the once completing at 80.05 on a shorter time frame and then 79.53 on the daily. They need to hold – w/ the 79.53 as the major pattern if the bullish thesis is correct. Remember, w/ our rules we could go all the way down to 79 again so, for all intensive purposes the 79 level is the line in the sand. We have two symmetrical BUY patterns present …
HOWEVER, if we lose the 79.53 level THEN it will open up some serious selling. PATTERNS will then shift to the B wave triangle thesis …
Last, we have MAJOR patterns complete across the indices and they are “acting” like the double tops that formed in 2000 and 2007. We have the Dow Jones Transports finishing a pattern from the late 1800’s, we have a potential generational low in interest rates complete and PATTERNS suggest one more wave lower in the commodities …
It’s all coming together and one of the circle of life gorilla’s is going to drop their stick of dynamite and big old explosion is going to occur …
CLIFF NOTE: POUND to attack 1.7, make it thru and then set up for a SHORT. If it does not break thru, then waiting for a sell pattern. Am NOT going to try and count the current consolidation. If/when it makes it thru 1.7 it will be quite the cookoff!
CLIFF NOTE 2: please see the following link and you’ll see that my “triangle” thesis in the POUND was, well, wrong … it’s been over 3 months since I have looked at it. Took that long to bring a fresh perspective. I can still tell you that I am waiting for a PATTERN but I’m not tied to the triangle anymore …
the first thing I am going to do is go back a 100 years … I should go back further but 1) it’s the weekend and 2) believe this is accurate. While it’s true the Pound wasn’t necessarily floating against the dollar til 1971 I want to remind us that Spot Gold stopped on the .382 from the early 1900’s and it was fixed then also. So, here’s a long term count POTENTIAL from 1915
here’s a POTENTIAL look at the BIG PICTURE (note it’s not EXACT) but a quick look at some major trendline POTENTIAL
note the inverted head and shoulders pattern present and how the 2007-2009 THUMP came right back down to the trendline and STOPPED. Folks, that’s BULLISH … basic TA says to WAIT for the neckline break UP or DOWN on a H+S patterns and for price to “come back to the neckline” — that’s what happened…
So, now let’s “zoom in” to a MONTHLY look at the GBP ….
some things to notice – 1.4 is a BIG DEAL from a support perspective and the 1.70 handle has been key since 1996 as RESISTANCE and support. I think it’s inevitable that we are going to go up and attack 1.7.
let’s digest two major points:
1. so, believe a case can be made of the inverse head and shoulders and the return to the neckline as shown below. (note: these trendlines are not exact but are used to give us a sense/feel of where are.) Our light blue line is the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and illustrating how we “returned to the neckline” and bounced. Now, let’s think about it for a moment — if you can remember back to 2009 the financial world was coming unglued. So, take a look at the candles coming into this low. THEY ARE VERY BEARISH and the NECKLINE HELD. Overall — bullish ….
2. I do not have the chart data that goes back 100 years. I have used the chart above to make a BEST GUESS ESTIMATE of the trendline coming from the all time high in 1935 up in the 5.xxx’s. What we can say is this trendline is going to come into play. If I can get my hand on a good CQG chart or something like that THEN I could get more exact but it’s something to understand. There is MAJOR resistance on the POUND higher but the fact that the data isn’t as good as I would like it “could be” a 300-500 pip range. Way to much to manage risk … but be aware.
now that we have defined the key areas we can also get a “feel” by using the long term RSI support and resistance zones
what do we see ? In the long term picture there have been times where it has bounced off BULLISH support in the 40-50 area but it has NEVER broken thru the BEARISH resistance levels defined by Constance Brown.
so, note sure I am any farther along then when I started but I do think I have put together an executable gameplan. Let me know what you think ….
so, where do we sit now? below you will find a daily chart of the GBP vs USD and, well, nothing has really changed. let’s focus on a couple things:
the target we had “hoped” for is, quite frankly, still out there and rest at 1.6330. it is conceivable for one more push into that short zone.
the analysis of a multi year triangle completing (big blue 4) is still alive.
the move from 4 (big blue) down to the 1 (green) represents 1 0f 5 in a 5th wave decline that “should” take out the 2009 lows.
most recent price action is viewed as a 2nd wave correction in a-b-c fashion. the 1.618*a = c level is at 1.6297 (never hit)
here’s the most important part – the 2 month consolidation is either is 1) corrective and an advance to our long standing target will occur OR 2) the most recent high yesterday is “it” and we start down. I don’t know which is which but I do see a more favorable foldback than the one originally presented on 11/05.
the foldback can be seen here …
here is the 4 hour chart w/ a little more granularity …
will be trying to get short (again) on this potentially MAJOR move … our risk will be anything “closing” on a 4 hour – daily basis above our long term target OR above the 4 (big blue one). at that point I will ERASE everything an go back to the drawing board…
Foldbacks are amazingly accurate patterns … they occur on anytime frame and basically give us the “mirror image” of a move … the theory is as they come into an inflection point they will go out of the inflection point the same way. for those still versed in geometry, it’s basically the angle of incidence equals the angle of reflection.
here’s one of many pictures that I have of long term foldbacks in process … it’s a long term chart of JEC (Jacobs Engineering). The first chart shows the geometry of the parabolic move up, the second chart shows price action around the foldback and the third chart shows the result.
if you go back and study the Silver posts you’ll see that the most recent all time high on silver was just like the above … a mirror image foldback. IF (the big IF) you find the correct balance point then you can watch movement w/ a leading understanding of what to EXPECT (again, only PROBABILITY) Here’s a quick review of the Silver Chart … everything based on the FOLD BACK.
so, much like JEC and SILVER we find a nice POTENTIAL FOLD BACK occurring w/in the Great British Pound Chart ….
only time will tell if have the fold back working … the great thing from a risk management perspective is they USUALLY only FAIL at the inflection points so a little bit higher on the Pound will tell us a lot.