12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite. I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart. Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone. The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732. It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002. My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ. And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal. Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …
12/16/2018 – as shown before, the ratio of XLP (Staples) / NASDAQ and the PATTERN that completed gave us fair warning of this correction we find ourselves in .. is it the beginning of the ‘next’ bear market. I have no idea. Is it just the ‘buy the dip’ – I have no idea. I guess if you have 50 years you don’t care but if you have 2 weeks you might. It’s all relative folks but we do want to find what the best entry/exit points are as we look to manage risk. that’s all I’m trying to do …
the big institutions have a risk on or a risk off mindset. we hear it all the time. ratio’s allow you to try and get a best guess of where they are … in this case the STAPLES / NASDAQ has helped – a ton.
so, where are we now?
KEY: note the blue arrows. those are the extreme moves up in ‘risk off’ for the institution and then, as shown, the ratio stalls and then the band plays on … believe it or not, we haven’t reached that extreme yet so I simply expect the correction to continue until the ‘target zone 1’ is reached. If your a bull then this seems a logical place to stick your toe int he water else watch and wait for a MONTHLY SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE. Else, we could go all the way up to Target Zone 2.
did a little bit of work on the NYSE for my friend Larry P and found some pretty interesting “form and proportion” w/ regards to the $NYSE.
folks, it’s almost ALL the SAME.
Here’s what I see on this chart:
note the blue triangles
the vertical represents PRICE and the horizontal represents TIME
from 2007 high we went down into the area shown “started down” and consolidated for, roughly, 6 weeks and then it broke.
in Nov 2008 we found a low and rallied the EXACT same as the rally after the first break (the dashed black line)
form the 2009 lows we move up into May 2011 and then corrected – the EXACT same price. Note, the time was “off” but when it did hit the same TIME the market fell, found support and rallied up into the May 2015 highs.
we’ve corrected DOWN the same amount and rallied UP the same amount (black arrow) and we are at the “time” for it to start down again.
guess the big question is will it start DOWN DOWN or will it find support.
I do not know ….but what I do know is it appears ready to start a leg down. If your a bull then WAIT for the first BULL PATTERN to appear. If your a bear, get short in/around here and stop out above the black arrow. Hope this helps.
03/28/2016 – am prepping for a presentation I will be giving at http://www.markettechnicians.org and it’s about the math of the great pyramids, Stonehenge and Music. I’m trying (really I am trying) to walk slowly thru the progression of why square roots are important and I had to include an example of the Vesica Pisces (bladder of the fish) and I remembered this post … I’m going to use one of the charts in my presentation so I figured what the hell, just repost it.
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had a “google hangout” w/ JC today and we zipped thru, easily, 6 different asset classes from stocks, commodities, single stocks and currencies in roughly 10 minutes.
“check this out – boom boom boom” and “blah blah blah” – and we were done.
question .. how long do you think it would take non-chartists? hours …? just saying.
anyway, we took at look at long term soybeans and what we need to focus on is the POWER of a MEASURED MOVE on a long term chart. in the chart below you’ll see blue and orange arrows. they represent the MAXIMUM correction of Soybeans on this 40 year old chart.
folks, when you have a LONG TERM measured move that sits right on a .618 retracement – you have high probability. If you don’t believe me … just look at the chart.
every major correction has either been a blue or orange arrow …
measured moves of Soybeans
W H Y ?
the Vesica Piscis of course (the bladder of the fish)
Vesica Pisces
so, look folks, you can believe me or not … but – HONESTLY – I chose the black dashed move to being the construction of the Vesica Pisces for this long term soybean chart. And, because I believe in my edge – and w/ full disclosure I had NEVER done this for Soybeans I constructed the VP from that one corrective move from 1988-1991.
as you can see below I built the picture above and then ….. use sacred geometry to measure the fractals of the square roots of 2,3,4,5 which are represented by pink/black/blue/orange arrows and then transposed them to PRICE in the lower right hand corner.
and, guess what … see that black arrow? THAT is what created the measured moves above … and, additionally, as you can see, I used the orange arrow from the low in 1999 to the EXACT high in 2012.
now, believe it or not, you can use any major swing .. they are all related from a proportions and fractal point of view. I trusted my eye and looked at where this correction was occurring and trusted my “hunch” that this was the right vector to use as the seed.
if you get the chance … use the vectors as time. (hint hint)
the bladder of the fish and the Vesica Pisces
SPOILER ALERT:
The mathematical ratio of the width of the vesica piscis to its height is the square root of 3, or approximately 1.7320508… (since if straight lines are drawn connecting the centers of the two circles with each other and with the two points where the circles intersect, two equilateral triangles join along an edge). The ratios 265:153 = 1.7320261… and 1351:780 = 1.7320513… are two of a series of approximations to this value, each with the property that no better approximation can be obtained with smaller whole numbers.
21:11 Simon Peter went up and drew the net to land, full of large fish, a hundred and fifty-three and although there were so many, the net was not torn.
note – we are forming a “doji” candlestick pattern – “uncertainty” on a monthly basis, yet the higher target remains a little higher.
broke out of two monthly trend lines and have paused
RSI approaching extreme overbought levels of the 2008-2009 panic.
UNTIL WE HIT THE UPPER TARGET – FOR ME – we are in no mans land.
Now, let me draw your eye to the circled part of the chart. Note, all the BIG WICKS. It took 6 months for this to carve out a top which tells me that as the market was going down back in 2008-2009 the institutions started “accumulating” and then the market took off. Not sure what will happen this time, but, again, would remain defensive till this upper target is hit OR we get a monthly close (a monthly) back below BOTH the purple and red upper channel trend lines.
Folks, you know that part of Pink Floyd Echoes around 14 minutes into it when the Seagulls are flying? I always love that part and always ask myself “self, why did they put that in there? It’s perfect.”
The entire 23:32 is perfect harmony and proportion and transitions … and tonight, for whatever reason, it reminded me of a post that I did on the “Music of the New York Stock Exchange Index” – copied below. I did it on August 09, 2015 as I had a “gut feeling” that we were due for stiff resistance.
I have NO IDEA what is going to happen tomorrow. If you notice, of late, I’ve been putting out a bunch of BUY PATTERNS (IBB, JNK, BABA, IBM, GOOG) and guess what – they might work and they might not work. ALL I KNOW IS WHERE I’M WRONG …
That makes life so easy …I’m not trying to read another analyst report about the fundamentals, or blue horse shoe on XXX. I trust that my patterns will be 100 percent every single time. 100 percent at telling me where I’m wrong … the patterns are based on musical theory, vibrations and a bunch of other stuff. Do yourself a favor … try to study them and take all the other shit off your chart.
So, on that note … take the time to STUDY this chart. Using the all time low back in the 1970’s on the $NYA you’ll find amazing support and resistance simply based on using that all time low as the SEED and multiply by 1.05946. Every 12 notes, we have an octave. Every 12 notes we also have the 12 disciples, 12 signs of the zodiac, 12 tribes of Israel and, in the end, the 12 cranial nerves. Again, I digress …but also, REALLY PAY attention to the second chart and follow the bouncing ball. Remember – TIME equals PRICE. 🙂
equal octave scale of music is based on the 12th root of 2 … 1.05946. (darn there goes those square roots again)
taking the all time low of 346 we can project price just like we do music.
if you look below, it’s good to pay attention to where an octave ends … looks like we just completed 5 octaves, almost perfectly, on the $NYA.
so, if PRICE equals TIME (which it does) THEN we can take a PRICE delta between an octave – in this case between Octave 4 and Octave 5 (non log) and look for a time cycles to spin out from important highs and lows? right?
note – measured move ( in price and time), polarity and an extension target ….
needs to stop here and start back up, IMHO.
we are also sitting on a former resistance zone of 15 years folks .. if break down from here – we’ll call that a “what’s the fighter thinking” moment …
here’s the charts:
with the above being posted I’m going to try and present the plausible IF-THEN scenario using PATTERNS and ratio analysis
Ratio Analysis is VERY powerful and when coupled w/ PATTERNS it really gives you a flavor for institutional positioning and money flow.
Certain stocks “own” the world of safety, risk-off, “if the word ends tomorrow I buy xxx”, etc.
$WMT is one of those names. A lot of the public shops at $WMT.
So IF WMT is strengthening from a relative strength perspective then institutions are taking risk off … if it’s losing strength then risk is on …
How do we know when to “wax on” or “wax off?” (Pardon the Karate Kid pun)
HINT: PATTERNS.
Here’s the text books SELL PATTERN on the SPY/WMT ratio
What’s this mean?
IF the PATTERN works then WMT is going to be a “risk off” asset and the SPY will lose relative strength to WMT.
CLIFF NOTES: why is this important? See chart below … EVERY TIME since 2000 that the ratio inflected the SPY did at the EXACT TIME.
SPY/WMT ratio w/ SPY overlaid (blue line)
SO – “if then” w/ me …
IF this pattern holds then the US Equity market is in on the magical mystery tour … step right up, come this way.
IF it fails (the ratio goes higher) then this correction “should” end soon and game on ….
equal octave scale of music is based on the 12th root of 2 … 1.05946. (darn there goes those square roots again)
taking the all time low of 346 we can project price just like we do music.
if you look below, it’s good to pay attention to where an octave ends … looks like we just completed 5 octaves, almost perfectly, on the $NYA.
so, if PRICE equals TIME (which it does) THEN we can take a PRICE delta between an octave – in this case between Octave 4 and Octave 5 (non log) and look for a time cycles to spin out from important highs and lows? right?
