USDJPY – July 06, 2023

Well, this is one of those that you wait, in this case almost 9 months, for the pattern to appear. I almost tried it at the ABCD but something just told me to wait. Now, we have a 1.618 price projection right on top of the lovely .786 and a bunch of other ratios.

Why is this a big deal? Because the top up at 151 was a major top. Thus … for us Fx Junkies, we need to short USD vs JPY at 146-147 and if I’m right this is going to be one heck of a ride down.

USDYEN – another key pattern

last post on USDJPY:

this is a ‘nice’ Gartley SELL pattern and, to be honest here, would sure like it to “work” as I want (hope (a strategy)) for a move lower down into 110’s to complete 6+ year triangle … as we have discussed, triangles have 5 legs a-b-c-d-e and, right now, my hope ( a strategy) is that we are carving out the “e” wave and then .. game on for an explosive move w/ the USD versus the YEN.

if we blow thru “d” will have to get out the eraser and take a peak …

either way, believe 2022 will see the USD EXPLODE HIGHER against the YEN.

close 2021 w/ light, energy and smiles …

here’s the big picture “thesis” on the USD vs JPY

03/08/2020 Asian Open Update

the USD vs YEN cross rate is a BIG FX pair to monitor for equity strength and weakness. we had a nice ‘nominal’ 1100 point gap down to the open the DOW futures in Asia and a 20 percent drop in crude. rocking and rolling folks …

as the night progresses, just watch 102.06-103.20 on the USD vs JPY and, a little lower 100.62. We’ve already sliced thru 2 years of support – easily – but do look for these levels to offer a modicum of support over the coming hours/day (s?)

watch the USD vs JPY YEN chart below and these key levels for support of the US equities

relative strength of GOLD vs the USDJPY importance

a line in the sand was drawn at 75 in the USD vs JPY when the BOJ, after the horrible tsunami, said – enough is enough this is where the buck stops! the rest is history and a big KABOOM occurred. everyone and the brother can see the coiling occurring w/in this very important currency pair and, quite frankly, everyone and their brother is EXPECTING it to resolve to the upside.  here is the case for that ..


now, here is where it gets interesting … is there any possibility of this moving DOWN?  A couple weeks ago, I didn’t think so and here’s the post:

if you look at that post, we nailed the low and the pair has moved up from the levels indicated.

now it gets interesting, a lot of BEARISH PATTERNS have been completing on the equities side of the house and IF this is marking an important top/pause in the run from 2009, THEN the Nikkei 225 shouldn’t keep going straight up – one would think.  So, being very focused on the FX markets I decided to look at the JPY vs a lot of the pairs from around the world

November 13 2013 CHFJPY November 13 AUDJPY November 13 2013 EURJPY November 12 2013 GBPJPY November 12 2013 CADJPYCHFJPY: stopping exactly where it got smashed a couple years ago and in 1999. (JPY strength) / this is the most fascinating chart IMHO.

GBPJPY: little higher and then major resistance. (JPY strength)

EURJPY: tough call, but higher and we have major resistance (EUR strength?  Seriously?  perhaps if the EURO smashes down, the JPY will strengthen?)

AUDJPY: major sell signal HIT and AUD is weak against the JPY (JPY strength)

CADJPY: major sell pattern HIT and if it holds we’ll get a move low.  Another target is higher also..( but JPY strength)

These 5 pairs do not show the coil and they are showing some JPY strength afoot?  (Cue Wayne’s World – “something is afoot at the circle K”

What to do … well, let’s go back to our ratio’s.  in this case let’s do a ratio analysis of SPOT GOLD / USD vs JPY. Well, look at that …

Relative Strength of Spot Gold vs USDJPY
Relative Strength of Spot Gold vs USDJPY

another parabolic run that is ending badly … but here’s what REALLY makes me go “hmmmm.”  It’s not a stretch to say we are in a very powerful wave 3 down right now in this relative strength chart … but notice how long the wave 2 took to correct!  A pretty long time before things got interesting.  one of the things we are taught in the CMT is form/proportion and balance.  I would just think that wave 4 would take a little more TIME.  So what do we do – go to a time frame lower:

spot gold vs USDJPY relative strength
spot gold vs USDJPY relative strength

so, if we can get to the lower level at 12.56 on the ratio we’ll get a good a idea of where we are…my thesis is that if 1) this level holds and bounces it will cause the YEN to strengthen and if we lose this level to the downside it will cause the YEN to weaken and the triangle of USDJPY will resolve UP.  Here’s why this is so important:

November 13 2013 overlaythe line is the JPY vs USD.  the JPY is “strong” when the blue line is going up and it’s weak when the blue line is going down.  note the TIMING of the inflection points in the ratio.  

SUMMARY: yes, we are at a critical level in the USDJPY contraction …if we keep any eye on the Ratio of SPOT GOLD / USDJPY we might be able to get a “peak” at the directional movement of the coil …

Last, here’s the BEAR count of the USDJPY:

a bearish interpretation ....perhaps?
a bearish interpretation ….perhaps?


the issue here is the 4th wave .. with such a powerful move i would expect more consolidation.  But look at the wave labeled 1 – the 4th in that move was a quick “bump in the road” and the 4th before the top at 104 is kind of a mirror image.  perhaps forcing it, but is something to consider.

the last thing to consider is the CLEAR 5 WAVE MOVEMENT INTO the 104 zone.  1,2,3 triangle 4, 5 … quite frankly, why isn’t this count a possibility?  especially if our ratio finds support and goes up some more to relieve the beating it has taken ..

just saying ….stay tuned.