The YEN – October 13, 2024

Last update on the Yen complex: The Yen – October 4, 2024.

Just over a week ago, I posted about the cautionary signals and multiple sell patterns forming in the Yen against the major currencies and a commodity-based currency (the Australian Dollar).

None of these patterns were triggered.

There’s a lack of momentum in the Yen market right now; typically, a trending market in the Spot FX space would have activated these patterns easily. Interesting development…

My point is, although we’re still climbing the wall of worry to reach new all-time highs in the equity markets, I think these Yen patterns against the majors need to fail. If they don’t, and the Yen strengthens across the board, it could become challenging for global equity markets to sustain their upward trajectory.”

And, here is the XLF and KBW Banking Index …

XLF is about to smack into MAJOR resistance. I’ve labeled em’ for your edification but the important one for me is the 4.236*AB = CD as that can usually signify the ‘end of a move’ as MSJ taught me. That has confluence w/ the 1.618 extension. Pay attention to that level …

KBW ‘popped’ from a triangle which usually (not a rule, just a nice to know of EWT) happens at the end of a 5th wave. A little higher is another projection/retracement level. This one isn’t a ‘no brainer’ but it has closed above the resistance which had held for a LONG time. Is it a trap? Guess we’ll have to wait and see …

NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) is about 3% from the next major target. No kidding, this is the biggest outlier for me as the 1×1 trendline from the all time low didn’t even cause a blip …

So there you have it. Yes, we very well could be exploding parabolically into new highs for the next couple of years. Yup … but, I’m not all in the boat, yet. Let’s smoke some YEN PATTERNS first and then, I’ll be a believer.

For now, I’m cautious.