the current market conditions and the AUDJPY – update

03/13/2016 – UPDATE

I’ve received a  bunch of requests trying to see if this is a new BEAR MARKET or a corrective move w/in the context of a BULL MARKET. so, in order to give it a shot I’m going to go to the AUDJPY. TILT …?  Yes, the AUDJPY.  Please see below and read about the strong correlation of the AUDJPY and the NYSE.

so, here’s the deal … the market corrects in a-b-c fashion.  see the chart below – that’s the “alt” count shown. however, it also moves in 5 waves and that the count shown.

there are 3 rules – yes rules – which means don’t break them – for Elliott Wave.  The one were are really following is WAVE 4 CAN NOT go past the end of WAVE 1.  It’s that simple …

so, in the case of the AUDJPY, we need to stop right here and start back down to finish a 5 wave sequence. ELSE, the a-b-c correction is complete.

so here’s a thesis:

  • IF the AUDJPY is to complete a 5 wave sequence down into targeted area THEN it needs to stop in/around here and NOT overlap the end of wave 1.
    • this is BEARISH for equities
  • IF the AUDJPY is complete w/ an a-b-c correction (the “alt” count shown) THEN it will blow thru the end of the wave labeled 1 and new highs to be seen.
    • this is BULLISH for equities

obviously, I have NO IDEA which way this rolls … but I have some clear benchmarks to follow in the coming days and weeks.

does that help?

B

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something to note …

  • the HIGH in 2000 was the LOW in the AUDJPY and then a couple years later they synced-perfectly.
  • as the NYSE was making new highs, the AUDJPY diverged (and completed the PERFECT PRICE pattern like 2007) and then the NYSE Index dropped …
  • the most recent low (remember the XLP/NYA?) timed the NYSE low – perfectly.

so, pay attention to this one ….

B

 



10/21/2015 – I’ve been asked what I think of the market of late …I’ve answered I have no idea.  I see some patterns that suggest YEN strength across multiple currency pairs – and no it isn’t the USD vs JPY.  That’s ugly.  EURJPY, GBPJPY and my favorite AUDJPY appear they are willing to crack to YEN strength …. they “should” all go which means USD vs JPY which means pressure on equities.

here’s an update to the AUDJPY pattern. Folks, everything about this is so precise and harmonic – it’s one of my favorites.  why?  simply, I have a greater than 50% chance that the form, proportion and harmony are correct.  Sure “looks and feels” that we have completed a daily/weekly wave 4 – almost perfectly in PRICE and TIME and therefore if we break the “KEY KEY SUPPORT” as shown, chances are we are in the beginning stages of 1000+ pip move.  If your a currency trader – be ready to rumble.

  • NOTE THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE AUDJPY AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX ($NYA)

Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.

ROCK ON, OK?

BART

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Page_15-10-21_08-00-19

 

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folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market.  just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.

but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014.  Yes, almost a year ago.

first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES.  Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.

anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:

main20141101175441

here’s the result:

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-33-20

Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY.  Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s.  Since then it’s been highly correlated.

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-31-15

So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over?  Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t  have a clue.  However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-42-04

so here we go …

IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.

IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.

NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves.  It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance.  Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price.  We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.

thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.

rock on, ok?

B

the current market conditions and the AUDJPY – update

10/21/2015 – I’ve been asked what I think of the market of late …I’ve answered I have no idea.  I see some patterns that suggest YEN strength across multiple currency pairs – and no it isn’t the USD vs JPY.  That’s ugly.  EURJPY, GBPJPY and my favorite AUDJPY appear they are willing to crack to YEN strength …. they “should” all go which means USD vs JPY which means pressure on equities.

here’s an update to the AUDJPY pattern. Folks, everything about this is so precise and harmonic – it’s one of my favorites.  why?  simply, I have a greater than 50% chance that the form, proportion and harmony are correct.  Sure “looks and feels” that we have completed a daily/weekly wave 4 – almost perfectly in PRICE and TIME and therefore if we break the “KEY KEY SUPPORT” as shown, chances are we are in the beginning stages of 1000+ pip move.  If your a currency trader – be ready to rumble.

  • NOTE THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE AUDJPY AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX ($NYA)

Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.

ROCK ON, OK?

BART

Page_15-10-21_07-51-29

 

Page_15-10-21_07-55-15

 

Page_15-10-21_07-57-35

 

Page_15-10-21_08-00-19

 

Page_15-10-21_08-15-17



folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market.  just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.

but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014.  Yes, almost a year ago.

first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES.  Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.

anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:

main20141101175441

here’s the result:

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-33-20

Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY.  Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s.  Since then it’s been highly correlated.

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-31-15

So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over?  Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t  have a clue.  However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.

Page(2)_15-09-12_09-42-04

so here we go …

IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.

IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.

NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves.  It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance.  Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price.  We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.

thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.

rock on, ok?

B

German Dax “Voo Doo” is a wonder to behold …

Below is the post that  I did on the German Dax and the fact that so many PATTERNS were coming into play.  I spent this morning going thru this post and I just felt the need to post it again.  Why?

Well, as you know I have NEVER taken an economics or business course.  I know NOTHING that a CFA or MBA knows.  But I do KNOW PATTERNS based on musical theory, fibonacci, sacred geometry, etc.  So Germany – one could argue a most important part of the EURO ZONE – and particularly the DAX was, simply completing patterns based on all time lows and butterfly patterns (see below) and I’ll be darn they patterns held.

Knowing NOTHING about global macro economics but a lot about GLOBAL MACRO ADVANCED PATTERN RECOGNITION I simply believed these levels to be very important.  They have been …

So, someone please explain to me why the entire world took the DAX up to the pattern level and, well, the shit hit the fan – right at our level.  While your at it – take a look at Silver at 14, GPRO at 98, the Chinese Yuan PATTERN, etc. etc.  The PATTERNS are amazing because they are an edge and let you know – with a good deal of accuracy where you are wrong!  Enjoy the chart

Main20141214114922

One last … how about the AUDJPY?  Amazing …

main20141101175441 Main20141214120336

 


 


 

Voo Doo principle: a pattern appeared and at the PRECISE level the BUYING STOPPED and the SELLING took over … believe it? or not?

Here’s what I do know:

  • ANYTHING can and will happen …
  • YOU DO NOT NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT TO MAKE MONEY
  • There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge … (MY edge is PATTERN RECOGNITION)
  • An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another …
  • EVERY MOMENT IN THE MARKET IS UNIQUE
  • Thank you Mark Douglas for Trading in the Zone.

Here’s what I SEE w/ regards to the German Dax – PATTERNS are complete across long time frames.  IF (the big IF) these patterns work (they sure seem to be) THEN it is very bearish.

GERMAN DAX Monthly AB=CD from all time how to all time high - COMPLETE
GERMAN DAX Monthly AB=CD from all time how to all time high – COMPLETE

9c4ezXqni Proof_of_Butterfly_theorem

 

Butterfly #1 on German Dax
Butterfly #1 on German Dax

 

butterfly pattern MONTHLY GERMAN DAX number 2
butterfly pattern MONTHLY GERMAN DAX number 2

 

EWG ETF for German Dax
EWG ETF for German Dax

 

and, here’s the ETF w/ the “SEE PATTERN APPROACHING” back in December 2013

the SELL PATTERN approaching
the SELL PATTERN approaching

 

 

 


 


 

CLIFF NOTES:  as I’ve said for the past 6 months (it hasn’t even been a year blogging!) this is a PATTERN RECOGNITION blog.  And, guess what … we have ANOTHER PATTERN from an all time low.  Here’s the pattern …

German Dax
German Dax

why we should care about Australia

the All ordinaries never hit the target SELL pattern and this PATTERN is still valid.  the zone of 5760-5835 is the key w/ the old realiable .786 retrace up at 6060 the highest it “should” go if the SELL PATTERN is valid.  As you know we NEVER know which one works or doesn’t …

what makes this particularly relevant, in my HUMBLED opinion is it’s correlation to the AUDJPY and the VERY interesting PATTERN that is appearing w/ regards to the AUDJPY.  For a review, here is the pattern on the All Ordinaries:

All Ordinaries SELL PATTERN
All Ordinaries SELL PATTERN

here’s the importance of the AUDJPY and the All Ordinaries …

AUD vs USD and All Ordinaries
AUD vs USD and All Ordinaries

so we have a SELL PATTERN on the All Ordinaries so that “should” cause the YEN to strengthen against the AUSSIE .. ONE PERCENT OPPOSITE OF THE INTERVENTION WHICH TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY!  as you well know, I know NOTHING about the fundamentals behind this move.  And I don’t care … but IF the All Ordinaries SELL works THEN historically speaking the PATTERNS and CHARTS tell us the YEN will strengthen against the Aussie …here’s the charts:

ADUJPY note same PATTERN
ADUJPY note same PATTERN

look at this MIRROR IMAGE foldback …

mirror image foldback
mirror image foldback

 

mirror image foldback point 2009
mirror image foldback point 2009

here’s the PATTERN, again, on the AUDJPY …

AUDJPY pattern
AUDJPY pattern
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