so … who is eating who?

last post on current market conditions: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/

if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.

1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.

2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….

3/ so lets do that ….

  • the PATTERNS have failed
  • Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
  • NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
  • Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
  • XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …

so what do we do ..

me?

sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….

until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..

the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.

IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?

YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …

chart of the year ….
nothing “truly” goes down till the banks go down … pretty big target approaching …

Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes it eats you …

love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.

so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.

what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …

but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.

also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …

we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …

all probability …

Important Correlation

chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.

the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)

note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?

Asian Open – Fed cuts rates to zero and possible mirror image foldback NYSE Index

here’s last weeks post on the Asian Open and the YEN. level worked pretty well and we rallied pretty much all week. the USD vs YEN should stay below the 108.46 level and/or 109.866. if (the big if) this sell signal works then it ‘should’ put pressure on the equities:

even w/ the FED cutting rates take note of the key (intraday sell signal) on the bonds … intraday/15 minute chart. we have higher targets but this is the ‘first’ sell signal from the lows back on 3/13.

here’s the potential mirror image foldback I’m monitoring on the NYSE Index. Pretty symmetrical pattern. note the key trend line … that’s a BIG DEAL.

Targets for support (hope – a strategy)

support here or soon “should” be expected …

Here’s the link to the ‘targets a plenty’ – https://bartscharts.com/2020/01/25/targets-a-plenty/

there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …

if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!

if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.

take er’ easy – Bart

Intraday BUY ratio = sell equities

…using ratio analysis we can support risk on/ risk off strategies. in this case we use the Staples ETF (XLP) versus the NYSE Index

here’s an intraday look at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio … 30 minute chart. a near ‘perfect’ BUY PATTERN.

with a buy pattern, that will signify ‘risk off’ for the big guys and therefore a sell equities.

if (the big if) this pattern fails then the likelihood of a continue advance is high …

monitoring the NYSE Inex

my last two posts concerning the NYSE Index and the relative strength of the index (ratio analysis) are here:

just providing an update as it looks like the NYSE Index is about to start a ‘corrective’ leg down … then, ultimately, I will be looking for the BUY PATTERN lower (will try to update if/when it comes) and then an attack on the long term target that I keep showing …

below is the XLP / NYA (relative strength using ratio analysis) – note it is going UP which means staples (on a relative basis) are out performing the overall market = risk off mindset. so stay cautious until we finish this fifth wave up …

NYSE Index Targets

Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.

So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.

New York Stock Exchange Index – $NYA

the NYSE Index has a TON of stocks in it and is a very good gauge of the overall health of the market.  As you can see there is still a much bigger target (almost perfect – an AB-CD and 1.618 extension on top of each other ON A MONTHLY) out there in/around 14217. But note the blue measured moves … they have been very consistent in causing resistance … so, we might be in for another bigger dump if you look at the daily.

strength should get this puppy moving up to the target mentioned above around the 14,200’s so watch this index closely in the coming days and weeks.

have a great LABOR DAY weekend and enjoy your life …

Bart