Asian Open – Fed cuts rates to zero and possible mirror image foldback NYSE Index

here’s last weeks post on the Asian Open and the YEN. level worked pretty well and we rallied pretty much all week. the USD vs YEN should stay below the 108.46 level and/or 109.866. if (the big if) this sell signal works then it ‘should’ put pressure on the equities:

even w/ the FED cutting rates take note of the key (intraday sell signal) on the bonds … intraday/15 minute chart. we have higher targets but this is the ‘first’ sell signal from the lows back on 3/13.

here’s the potential mirror image foldback I’m monitoring on the NYSE Index. Pretty symmetrical pattern. note the key trend line … that’s a BIG DEAL.

Targets for support (hope – a strategy)

support here or soon “should” be expected …

Here’s the link to the ‘targets a plenty’ – https://bartscharts.com/2020/01/25/targets-a-plenty/

there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …

if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!

if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.

take er’ easy – Bart

Intraday BUY ratio = sell equities

…using ratio analysis we can support risk on/ risk off strategies. in this case we use the Staples ETF (XLP) versus the NYSE Index

here’s an intraday look at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio … 30 minute chart. a near ‘perfect’ BUY PATTERN.

with a buy pattern, that will signify ‘risk off’ for the big guys and therefore a sell equities.

if (the big if) this pattern fails then the likelihood of a continue advance is high …

monitoring the NYSE Inex

my last two posts concerning the NYSE Index and the relative strength of the index (ratio analysis) are here:

just providing an update as it looks like the NYSE Index is about to start a ‘corrective’ leg down … then, ultimately, I will be looking for the BUY PATTERN lower (will try to update if/when it comes) and then an attack on the long term target that I keep showing …

below is the XLP / NYA (relative strength using ratio analysis) – note it is going UP which means staples (on a relative basis) are out performing the overall market = risk off mindset. so stay cautious until we finish this fifth wave up …

NYSE Index Targets

Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.

So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.

New York Stock Exchange Index – $NYA

the NYSE Index has a TON of stocks in it and is a very good gauge of the overall health of the market.  As you can see there is still a much bigger target (almost perfect – an AB-CD and 1.618 extension on top of each other ON A MONTHLY) out there in/around 14217. But note the blue measured moves … they have been very consistent in causing resistance … so, we might be in for another bigger dump if you look at the daily.

strength should get this puppy moving up to the target mentioned above around the 14,200’s so watch this index closely in the coming days and weeks.

have a great LABOR DAY weekend and enjoy your life …

Bart

 

Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again

09/17/2017 – well, as you know, the SELL PATTERN on the NYSE Index got smoked ..NOTE the gap UP RIGHT AT THE PATTERN LEVEL. that’s a failed pattern …

now, the XIV has hit the target zone but I’ve updated it based on the most recent action. It has NOT made a new high and is still in the zone for a SELL XIV or “BUY” Volatility.  Stay tuned ….

If you go the XLP / $NYA chart you can see a little lower on that ratio could push the XIV up and into the next zone for the sell.  All best are off if we daily close above “wrong above here” or, if you want just a little more risk above the hold high on the XIV.

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09/04/2017 –  as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal.  If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower.  that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.

we have:

  • dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
  • we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
  • if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV

probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.

also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.

Happy Labor Day.

Bart

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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever.  We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play.  No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country.  Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.

that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.

we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93.  why did it stop there?

when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.

additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.

we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…

So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.

 


 

07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs.  Sheesh!  But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …

Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception.  Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.

NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …

this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:

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Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED and UPDATED again and UPDATED again

09/04/2017 –  as you can see by the chart below the XIV is forming a ‘classic’ sell signal.  If you look closely (not labeled here) we can see a 5 wave count down. w/ this rally, we should expect another wave lower.  that’s what ‘should’ happen BUT you never know.

we have:

  • dashed red arrows showing equal rallies completed on Friday
  • we have a PATTERN that shows 86.26-86.88 as completing a the sell PATTERN
  • if we blow thru there then the 91.22 area is next and anything above 94 (daily close?) tells me we are going higher in the XIV

probability, therefore risk control, calls for another sell-off to occur in the XIV and, albeit, soon.

also, note the SAME fractal pattern is present on the $NYSE Index.

Happy Labor Day.

Bart

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07/30/2017 – we are entering August w/ volatility AT THE ALL TIME low – ever.  We also have some pretty cool eclipses coming into play.  No kidding, this eclipse is going to be the first one since the inception of the United States that it only goes all the way across our country.  Some serious energy is going to be hitting the continental US.

that being said, you can see we were looking at 88-90 ish as potential targets for the XIV but also noted the ‘big candle’ warranted caution for a top/resistance.

we plowed thru those two targets and now have a weekly doji sitting around 93.  why did it stop there?

when going to targets I always like to go long term log and also use percentage projections. as you can see if we do a .618ab=cd on the percentage distance it hit the high exactly.

additionally we are also hitting some long term log resistance lines – NOTE I bracketed the gap to come up w/ a zone of resistance.

we have some negative divergence but I really want to keep an eye on that rising dashed green trend line on the RSI …that’s pretty much been running the show…

So, I’m still in the mindset that a correction is coming … mindful to wait for an SRC before jumping in on the LONG VIX or short XIV opportunity.

 


 

07/16/2017 – NEWS FLASH Volatility is historically low (insert sarcasm here) .. as you can below on the first chart the XIV (inverse VIX) has simply CRUSHED any semblance of patterns as it screams to new highs.  Sheesh!  But, the more parabolic it becomes the more likely it will parabolically collapse. I’m not saying the market is going to crash all I’m saying is PARABOLIC take off’s NEVER end well. So, ride it while you can …

Below, calling out a very nice 3 drive to a top w/ price and time symmetry and, additionally, the XIV is smacking into 1.618/1.68179 projections from the date of inception.  Man, if it smacks into this level and keeps rolling it’s going to be Space-X rocket.

NOTE: if your thinking the VIX is going to spike (XIV to go down) watch out – the candle going into this level is pretty large and bullish …

this chart below is the WEEKLY blown up to capture the most recent price action:

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why 11254 is SO important to the $NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index). (the ONLY reason)

12/24/2016 – as you can see below, using some ‘basic’ math and having a ‘basic’ understanding of the importance of NUMBERS to this entire ‘vibrational thing’ leads to some amazingly accurate inflection points.  11,254 has been respected as resistance below and the MATH behind it is explained in the chart uploaded below.

also, you can see that the resistance shown around July ‘held’ for a couple of months and then was defeated.  this leads to a very nice 3 drives to a top right up to that 11,254 level.  if you choose to do the math, you’ll see that it was 15,411 days since the all time low from 1974.  do some further math and you’ll find some very interesting correlations … I’ll leave it at that.

what does all this mean? simply, it’s a PIVOT area and a BIG ONE.  347.77 FREQUENCY is causing a lot of stuff to happen … above here, well were off to the races.  below here, perhaps a nice pullback.

honestly, have no idea what’s going to happen BUT do know that 11,254 is a big FREQUENCY target and we’ll just leave it at that …

stay tuned …

Bart

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07/23/2016 – posting this again because the MATH and the NUMBERS and the VIBRATIONS are so important.  I don’t want to go into a “war and peace” diatribe regarding “WHY” this high in the NYSE was/is so important.  But, I do want you take notice ….

  • note the all time low …10/4/1974.  That NUMBER which is actually a VIBRATION … sorry, going to go down a rabbit hole for a moment
    • the ancients used words to equal numbers which equaled music.  essentially, when we SPEAK our dialect we are actually emitting a sound which plays a tune that is harmonious or not to you.  so, in order for the words we SEE as we read and THINK they assigned numerical equivalents .. 26+26 = 52. 52 weeks in a year .. yes/no?
  • so, that LOW at 347.77 was the SEED for the rest of the move into the high on May 21, 2015.
    • below you will find how – using LOGS (which are cool) we are able to calculate the EXACT HIGH on the NYSE …yes, go read it, it’s the EXACT high.
  • Why is this important? Well, the NYSE index is a huge deal … it’s not manipulated and it’s encompasses most everything in that is traded (5000+ securities). so, take note of the chart below … we’ve  hung out for 7 days at the .786 but HAVE NOT REALLY CLOSED BELOW IT. THAT IS BULLISH …
  • I also see 1,2,3,4,5 waves completing – which is also BULLISH. It warns of a corrective pullback but the TREND is still UP and 1,2,34,5 waves UP means it wants to go higher after a pullback.

so, in summary, there are many bullish aspects of what’s going on right now … but as long as the NYSE stays below 11254 I have to remain cautious.  If we blow thru there .. game on!  then, perhaps the DOW tries to go seek the END OF THE OCTAVE at 22,346 as explained here:

I’ve seen the planetary aspects that my friends/mentors have been sending me and I also know the Bradley model turned DOWN HARD on Friday into late fall.  Just use stops and let the math work …

Bart

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I’ve been asked, why do you use long term log charts so much …? Frankly, I think they are the MOST important tool in a chartists tool box.

When a mathematical property (LOGS, ANTI-LOGS, EXPONENTS) are responsible for the British Foot System, Stonehenge and the Great Pyramids I take notice …

In a prior post we discussed that “decimal points” are just “things” and when using vibrations (i.e. the market) we can move/adjust the decimal point.  Take for instance the all time low on the NYSE Index at 347.77.

  • PI = 3.142
  • 3.142 = 31.42
  • 31.42*347.77 = 10926.93 (see light blue dashed line)

Of note, the amazing Martin Armstrong called for his ECM model to turn October 01, 2015.  I suspect if might have something to do w/ PI and the decimal shift. You see the fateful top in 1929 was September 03rd.  10/01/2015 was 31,439 days ago OR 3.1429.

If we go back to your long term LOG charts you’ll see the power of connecting lows via trend lines (those are key cycles) but what we can also do is PROJECT price targets and time targets.

Today, we’ll just focus on PRICE.

  • All time low: 347.77
  • Log (the LN key on calculator) 347.77 = 5.85154
  • 347.77 = 3.477
  • 5.585154+3.477 = 9.32854
  • anti-log 9.32854 = 11254

Is that the EXACT high? Um, yeah, pretty much but – IS IT THE HIGH? I don’t know but what I do know is everything is tied together and it’s all math …

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have a good weekend …