the current market conditions and the AUDJPY – update
03/13/2016 – UPDATE
I’ve received a bunch of requests trying to see if this is a new BEAR MARKET or a corrective move w/in the context of a BULL MARKET. so, in order to give it a shot I’m going to go to the AUDJPY. TILT …? Yes, the AUDJPY. Please see below and read about the strong correlation of the AUDJPY and the NYSE.
so, here’s the deal … the market corrects in a-b-c fashion. see the chart below – that’s the “alt” count shown. however, it also moves in 5 waves and that the count shown.
there are 3 rules – yes rules – which means don’t break them – for Elliott Wave. The one were are really following is WAVE 4 CAN NOT go past the end of WAVE 1. It’s that simple …
so, in the case of the AUDJPY, we need to stop right here and start back down to finish a 5 wave sequence. ELSE, the a-b-c correction is complete.
so here’s a thesis:
- IF the AUDJPY is to complete a 5 wave sequence down into targeted area THEN it needs to stop in/around here and NOT overlap the end of wave 1.
- this is BEARISH for equities
- IF the AUDJPY is complete w/ an a-b-c correction (the “alt” count shown) THEN it will blow thru the end of the wave labeled 1 and new highs to be seen.
- this is BULLISH for equities
obviously, I have NO IDEA which way this rolls … but I have some clear benchmarks to follow in the coming days and weeks.
does that help?
something to note …
- the HIGH in 2000 was the LOW in the AUDJPY and then a couple years later they synced-perfectly.
- as the NYSE was making new highs, the AUDJPY diverged (and completed the PERFECT PRICE pattern like 2007) and then the NYSE Index dropped …
- the most recent low (remember the XLP/NYA?) timed the NYSE low – perfectly.
so, pay attention to this one ….
10/21/2015 – I’ve been asked what I think of the market of late …I’ve answered I have no idea. I see some patterns that suggest YEN strength across multiple currency pairs – and no it isn’t the USD vs JPY. That’s ugly. EURJPY, GBPJPY and my favorite AUDJPY appear they are willing to crack to YEN strength …. they “should” all go which means USD vs JPY which means pressure on equities.
here’s an update to the AUDJPY pattern. Folks, everything about this is so precise and harmonic – it’s one of my favorites. why? simply, I have a greater than 50% chance that the form, proportion and harmony are correct. Sure “looks and feels” that we have completed a daily/weekly wave 4 – almost perfectly in PRICE and TIME and therefore if we break the “KEY KEY SUPPORT” as shown, chances are we are in the beginning stages of 1000+ pip move. If your a currency trader – be ready to rumble.
- NOTE THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE AUDJPY AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX ($NYA)
Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
ROCK ON, OK?
folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market. just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.
but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014. Yes, almost a year ago.
first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES. Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.
anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:
here’s the result:
Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY. Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s. Since then it’s been highly correlated.
So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over? Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t have a clue. However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.
so here we go …
IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.
IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.
NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves. It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance. Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price. We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.
thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
rock on, ok?