USD Index – close to a BIG move UP?

if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….

below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart

the time and price symmetry of the latest high on the USD Index

since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.

notice the dashed black and blue arrows, they are exact measured moves and then note the long term cycle that is hitting this month

2 hour intraday chart showing wave relationships that could get us down into the target zone .. used equality of wave 1 and 1.618 wave 1 to project.

Let the market tell you – EURO quick look

CLIFF NOTES:

  • follow the black dotted line to see where the major level has been for the Euro.
  • Then, follow the orange line.
  • Additionally, note a nice little cycle coming in at 778 days.  We are off by a week, but that’s OK and – quite frankly – the reason is a little too esoteric for this discussion.  we are still in the time zone for a bounce.
  • Note, from the beginning of the BULL market that started in 2000 we have used the “standard” 1×1, 1×2 and 2×1 angles but the KEY is we have oriented them to the plane of the move up that began the bull market. Follow the bouncing ball and we’ll see that the 2×1 caught the July 2012 move and now we are approaching the .618 retrace and the trend line.
  • Bottom line: EURO bounce coming based on 1) structure, 2) “basic” and “advanced” time cycles, 3) trend line from the beginning of the bull market in 2000 4).618 retracement  5) the 1/8 increment of the signal reversal candle down completes a little lower and 6) we are developing bullish divergence.
  • WAIT to 1) short the upcoming bounce or 2) let the market tell you a bottom is in place and then buy the first pullback that should have a 3 wave structure . (NOTE the only correction so far has been a flat.  by the law of alternation, we will have a triangle or ziz-zag appear.  so WAIT for the bottom…

 

EURO vs USD weekly
EURO vs USD weekly

 

EURO vs USD Daily
EURO vs USD Daily

EURO vs USD 30 minute
EURO vs USD 30 minute

EURO vs USD update

CLIFF NOTES: the EURO bottomed on June 05,2014.  It’s been correcting for 18 (long days).  The most recent correction that occurred (intra day) on Friday was, just that, a corrective move in what I believe is the last leg of a “long” flat correction.  Targets in/around 1.3700 are a good place to get into a short.  Additionally, we could still POP up to 1.3800 so need to continue to monitor and be patient.

In any event the 1.39930 is KEY to the thesis that our 3 wave 1.5 year correction (labeled below as W-X-Y) is complete and we are on the verge of a major move lower in the EURO vs USD.

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