DB Oblivion …redux 03/11/2020

03/11/2020

the epicenter of the Corona Virus is China.

the epicenter of the REPO crisis is DB. DB breaking to new lows is NOT A GOOD THING. ding ding … here comes the REPO train and we DO NOT want to be on it …

you can follow the saga of DB here: https://bartscharts.com//?s=db

what a mess … reminds me of the title to this movie …

Image result for oblivion movie

DB (Deutsche Bank) House of Cards?

05/29/2018 – if you search ‘DB’ on my site you’ll see I’ve been watching this company for the past couple years.  Why?  Well, they are the largest holder of derivatives in the world and have so many ‘tangling alliances’ w/ the major global banks that they contain some serious systemic risk.

folks, this is getting really ugly … the probability of a contagion in Europe is growing larger every day.

watch the global flow of funds in the coming days … the ‘big money’ is going to have to go somewhere and, quite frankly, a big old position in the DOW 30 isn’t necessarily a bad thing is it?  Yes, were going to get some global equity hits over the coming days weeks but ultimately, watch VOLUME and look for measured moves … but, for now and perhaps the foreseeable future stay out of Europe.

will update as we continue along …sheesh, the Eurozone is a hot mess.

Bart

DB .. KEY BUY PATTERN in work … like I said at the Chart Summit “not sure which work and which don’t” (pattern)

Deutsche Bank – they hold the largest amount of systemic risk in the global banking environment.

As discussed at the Chart Summit I love failed patterns.  We have a BUY PATTERN appearing below on DB … if it holds, breathe a sigh of relief and a move upward ‘should’ occur and that ‘should’ relieve pressure on the system.

If it fails THEN that really isn’t good for the global economy.  At all …

So, put DB on your watch list and see if the 13-15 level holds … if we break thru these levels to the downside, watch out as it’s going to get very interesting.

As always, thanks for visiting the site.

Bart

the “Willie Willie” ,Derivatives and Deutsche Bank

120923_kicking_the_can_t618-1

October 01, 2016 – UPDATE on DB

yes, over a year ago, the storm clouds were brewing around $DB.  there were some nice patterns present for the DB move on Friday.  no conspiracy theories here BUT somebody BIG came in an bought DB.  the “news” was heightened, the CNBC talking head pundits made it a story and THAT folks makes it time to cover. Once “markets in turmoil” CNBC or some chucklehead w/ an MBA from Harvard starts opining about it the move is done for now ..

so where are we?  Well, if you look at the charts below you’ll see that 1) the EURO, the DAX and DB all moved together … makes sense as they both are flirting w/ disaster.

molly-hatchet-flirtin-with-disaster

here’s a post I did for the gang over @seeitmarket: http://www.seeitmarket.com/german-dax-chart-says-pullback-then-final-thrust-higher-14248/

the clearest picture I have, right now, is on the GERMAN DAX.  Below you’ll find a GARTLEY SELL pattern and it’s a beauty!

so, let’s do the IF THEN game ..

IF this PATTERN works

THEN the

DAX and the EURO and DB should

start another leg down and it could get very ugly.

IF this PATTERN fails

THEN the

count for @seeitmarket is correct and the DAX will go to new highs and, for now, we

have kicked the can down the road.

the ‘line of death’ so to speak is the area denoted sell pattern OR perhaps a little higher at the .786.

STAY TUNED

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Please, come to my help but Merkel said she won’t “bail out DB” …ummmmm, yeah right.

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they all bottomed in/around the same time and off they went … go figure, right?

so, the clearest picture is the GERMAN DAX sell PATTERN above – that will tell us a lot of where we are.

have a good weekend and Beat Air Force!

B



One of the things REQUIRED before flying was to check the weather.  Makes sense, hugh?

One day, we checked the weather and, well, there was a “Willie Willie” or weather warning for our local area for when we were going to be landing.  News flash, don’t go flying…..BUT (always the “but” rebuttal) we HAD TO GET A JET “profile checked” before going to the boat.  So, we looked at each other and said the proverbial words –

TorWarn

 

“doesn’t look like this WW is going to develop as forecasted.”

that was “always” the defense of idiots who launched into bad weather ….

Guess what, it was one hell of storm, we landed w/ a tornado touching down around 8 miles from our location BUT (the proverbial BUT) the jet flew out to the aircraft carrier the next day.

“idiots, party of two your table is ready”

“we’re here and will take our seat”

folks, we have another “Willie Willie” on the horizon and it’s financial in nature.  Here’s the “weather radar picture” of the storm approaching – Deutsche Bank.

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hate to mention the fundamentals, but all of this has happened in the past 6 months:

Deutsche co-CEOs announce “resignation” nine months before their contracts expire
–  CEO Anshu Jain was given more power to reorganise the bank
– Deutsche have been engaged in money laundering, tax evasion, derivative and manipulation scandals
Deutsche is world’s largest  holder of financial weapons of mass destruction (FWMD)
Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position almost 15 times as large as Germany’s GDP

here’s what the “Oracle of Omaha” thinks about Derivatives:

goldcore_chart1_08-06-15

there are 1.4 QUADRILLION DERIVATIVES OUTSTANDING …..

So, YOU make the FINANCIAL DECISION to go “flying” into a “Willie Willie” or not and YOU can also “play it safe” and NOT go “flying” into something that looks pretty bad …

REMEMBER SINCE 2009 NONE OF THE “DOOM AND GLOOM” FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN CORRECT BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A “WEATHER MAN/WOMAN” GET’S IT RIGHT AND YOUR SOCKS GET KNOCKED OFF BY ONE HELL OF A STORM!

As for me … the recent 6 months have given us plenty of warning that a storm is definitely brewing and, perhaps, is going to develop as forecasted.

Now, for the “if-then”

IF

$DB breaks another level of support (20/share)

THEN

IS

the worlds largest derivative holder bankrupt?

IF

this is the case

THEN

things could/will get pretty ugly, pretty fast

SO

keep your powder dry and

PERHAPS

NOT

take off into a forecasted (read probable) storm that is forecasted. the forecasters of “doom-gloom” haven’t gotten it right, yet.

folks, notice that no jets are flying off the deck this night. sometimes they “develop as forecasted” and “sometimes they don’t” …it’s all probability

Lightning-flashes-USS-Ike

don’t worry DB – Shake Shak, TWTR, FB, Chipotle will save you … ugh.

09/15/2016 – does anyone care that 1) DB is below the 2009 lows AND 2) it’s the largest holder of Derivatives (the financial time bombs) in the WORLD and 3) it’s the largest bank over in Europe which is tattering on financial collapste?

Nope, nobody really cares … TWTR, FB, TSLA, AMZN will save the world.  If you look at the picture below, imagine WHAT HAPPENS IF DB implodes.  See all those red arrows ….?  Well, they will affect these banks.

GSIB – Global Systematic INTERCONNECTED banks.

db-imf-1

 

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06/02/2016 – Triangles – look SO GREAT after they complete. when your in the middle of one (reference daily/weekly EURO vs USD) you get chopped up and frustrated till you erase your chart and then the c-d-e legs appear.  then it’s simply so hard to wait for “e” to complete but you have to …the move out of “e” is “usually” swift and strong … so, this triangle is so perfect in so many ways

  • trend line definition
  • the length of bc and cd are “usually” .618/.68179 (think music) of the proceeding wave
  • none of the moves are showing any major momentum or thrust ….

CONCLUSION: very near a daily triangle completing and then another dump on DB.  What the f&^% does this mean for the Euro-Zone and, well, let me just throw it out there .. the derivatives that DB is backing?  People lot smarter than me probably know.

Stand by ….

Bart

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Polarity on DB

06/02/2016 – Triangles – look SO GREAT after they complete. when your in the middle of one (reference daily/weekly EURO vs USD) you get chopped up and frustrated till you erase your chart and then the c-d-e legs appear.  then it’s simply so hard to wait for “e” to complete but you have to …the move out of “e” is “usually” swift and strong … so, this triangle is so perfect in so many ways

  • trend line definition
  • the length of bc and cd are “usually” .618/.68179 (think music) of the proceeding wave
  • none of the moves are showing any major momentum or thrust ….

CONCLUSION: very near a daily triangle completing and then another dump on DB.  What the f&^% does this mean for the Euro-Zone and, well, let me just throw it out there .. the derivatives that DB is backing?  People lot smarter than me probably know.

Stand by ….

Bart

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Ripley’s Believe it or not …

“The third-quarter and nine-months revenues not only illustrate the balance Lehman Brothers has achieved among its equity, fixed income and investment banking businesses, but also show the financial and strategic potential of new businesses the firm has been building, including private equity and high-net-worth activities,” Richard Fuld, former CEO of the former LEH

“You can tell them that Deutsche Bank remains absolutely rock-solid, given our strong capital and risk position. On Monday, we took advantage of this strength to reassure the market of our capacity and commitment to pay coupons to investors who hold our Additional Tier 1 capital. This type of instrument has been the subject of recent market concern.” John Cryan, Co-CEO of Deutsche Bank

giphy