the “Willie Willie” ,Derivatives and Deutsche Bank

October 01, 2016 – UPDATE on DB

yes, over a year ago, the storm clouds were brewing around $DB.  there were some nice patterns present for the DB move on Friday.  no conspiracy theories here BUT somebody BIG came in an bought DB.  the “news” was heightened, the CNBC talking head pundits made it a story and THAT folks makes it time to cover. Once “markets in turmoil” CNBC or some chucklehead w/ an MBA from Harvard starts opining about it the move is done for now ..

so where are we?  Well, if you look at the charts below you’ll see that 1) the EURO, the DAX and DB all moved together … makes sense as they both are flirting w/ disaster.

here’s a post I did for the gang over @seeitmarket: http://www.seeitmarket.com/german-dax-chart-says-pullback-then-final-thrust-higher-14248/

the clearest picture I have, right now, is on the GERMAN DAX.  Below you’ll find a GARTLEY SELL pattern and it’s a beauty!

so, let’s do the IF THEN game ..

IF this PATTERN works

THEN the

DAX and the EURO and DB should

start another leg down and it could get very ugly.

IF this PATTERN fails

THEN the

count for @seeitmarket is correct and the DAX will go to new highs and, for now, we

have kicked the can down the road.

the ‘line of death’ so to speak is the area denoted sell pattern OR perhaps a little higher at the .786.

STAY TUNED

 

Please, come to my help but Merkel said she won’t “bail out DB” …ummmmm, yeah right.

they all bottomed in/around the same time and off they went … go figure, right?

so, the clearest picture is the GERMAN DAX sell PATTERN above – that will tell us a lot of where we are.

have a good weekend and Beat Air Force!

B

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One of the things REQUIRED before flying was to check the weather.  Makes sense, hugh?

One day, we checked the weather and, well, there was a “Willie Willie” or weather warning for our local area for when we were going to be landing.  News flash, don’t go flying…..BUT (always the “but” rebuttal) we HAD TO GET A JET “profile checked” before going to the boat.  So, we looked at each other and said the proverbial words –

 

“doesn’t look like this WW is going to develop as forecasted.”

that was “always” the defense of idiots who launched into bad weather ….

Guess what, it was one hell of storm, we landed w/ a tornado touching down around 8 miles from our location BUT (the proverbial BUT) the jet flew out to the aircraft carrier the next day.

“idiots, party of two your table is ready”

“we’re here and will take our seat”

folks, we have another “Willie Willie” on the horizon and it’s financial in nature.  Here’s the “weather radar picture” of the storm approaching – Deutsche Bank.

hate to mention the fundamentals, but all of this has happened in the past 6 months:

– Deutsche co-CEOs announce “resignation” nine months before their contracts expire
–  CEO Anshu Jain was given more power to reorganise the bank
– Deutsche have been engaged in money laundering, tax evasion, derivative and manipulation scandals
– Deutsche is world’s largest  holder of financial weapons of mass destruction (FWMD)
– Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position almost 15 times as large as Germany’s GDP

here’s what the “Oracle of Omaha” thinks about Derivatives:

there are 1.4 QUADRILLION DERIVATIVES OUTSTANDING …..

So, YOU make the FINANCIAL DECISION to go “flying” into a “Willie Willie” or not and YOU can also “play it safe” and NOT go “flying” into something that looks pretty bad …

REMEMBER SINCE 2009 NONE OF THE “DOOM AND GLOOM” FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN CORRECT BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A “WEATHER MAN/WOMAN” GET’S IT RIGHT AND YOUR SOCKS GET KNOCKED OFF BY ONE HELL OF A STORM!

As for me … the recent 6 months have given us plenty of warning that a storm is definitely brewing and, perhaps, is going to develop as forecasted.

Now, for the “if-then”

IF

$DB breaks another level of support (20/share)

THEN

IS

the worlds largest derivative holder bankrupt?

IF

this is the case

THEN

things could/will get pretty ugly, pretty fast

SO

keep your powder dry and

PERHAPS

NOT

take off into a forecasted (read probable) storm that is forecasted. the forecasters of “doom-gloom” haven’t gotten it right, yet.

folks, notice that no jets are flying off the deck this night. sometimes they “develop as forecasted” and “sometimes they don’t” …it’s all probability