Sunday night … rocking and rolling

as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..

additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …

having fun w/ 1776 and the confessions of a QE Junky

I love Business Development in any industry and any product or service …it’s actually extremely strategic and w/ a well focused and actionable set of benchmarks or criteria can usually guarantee  success.  This AM I have been working on a proposal for a company to make a major LOB move into a new arena.  After spending some brains cells and finger strength typing I took a break for lunch …

While eating my cold spaghetti (I never heat up the next day spaghetti) there in front of me was the following news (breaking OBTW):

the Skyscraper Index in full affect?
the Skyscraper Index in full affect?

I remember studying socioeconomic indicators during the CMT and also remember the same type of “announcement” in 2007. So, I went to the authority for everything – Wikipedia – and found:

Pretty interesting, to say the least … some say it’s true, some say it’s not.  I don’t know u’all but I do find it pretty fun to conjecture …

Everyone thought the market was pretty sinister when we found support at 666 on the cash SPX.  And, now, well don’t you know that Freedom Plaza is 1776 feet tall, 1776 was a pretty important date in the US History and, the cash S&P closed w/ in one point at 1775.  OK, give me slippage and just touch 1776 to make it official – but close enough for government work?

now, come on and work w/ me wouldn’t that be a hoot if 1775 (1776) was the all time high?


so we get the BREAKING NEWS of the tallest skyscaper and then in the WSJ we have the following:

Take time to read the article … here’s some quotes for digestion:

  • The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I’ve come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.
  • In its almost 100-year history, the Fed had never bought one mortgage bond. Now my program was buying so many each day through active, unscripted trading that we constantly risked driving bond prices too high and crashing global confidence in key financial markets. We were working feverishly to preserve the impression that the Fed knew what it was doing.
  • Where are we today? The Fed keeps buying roughly $85 billion in bonds a month, chronically delaying so much as a minor QE taper. Over five years, its bond purchases have come to more than $4 trillion. Amazingly, in a supposedly free-market nation, QE has become the largest financial-markets intervention by any government in world history.
  • Having racked up hundreds of billions of dollars in opaque Fed subsidies, U.S. banks have seen their collective stock price triple since March 2009. The biggest ones have only become more of a cartel: 0.2% of them now control more than 70% of the U.S. bank assets.
  • As for the rest of America, good luck. Because QE was relentlessly pumping money into the financial markets during the past five years, it killed the urgency for Washington to confront a real crisis: that of a structurally unsound U.S. economy.

tick tick tick tick – – OMG everyone under the desk …


PS – Mr. Huszar, you are forgiven.  Quick question, can you give me a hint of when they are going to stop intervening? Would help the case for a short or do we not have free flowing markets anymore?  Just curious …

stay tuned the BUY on WMT/S&P is complete or perhaps a little lower

the pattern we have been looking at on the WMT/S&P relative strength comparison is complete ..

stay tuned, there are some tectonic plates shifting ….

Pattern complete in around here or perhaps just a little lower
Pattern complete in around here or perhaps just a little lower

Part 2 of Part 1-V on the S&P

Part 1 was a look around the world at different equity indices based on ETF’s:

of note is the Global Equity ETF (ACWI) and the SELL pattern that is appearing as we showed in our last “around the world” update shown below. Overall, nothing to crazy but the analysis appears to have been correct.  Summary: NONE of the “around the world” indices have come even close to making new highs from the 2007-2008 time frame.

ACWI Butterfly Sell Pattern
ACWI Butterfly Sell Pattern

Part 2 was the banks and too big to fail:

The targets w/in the 21-22 area are approaching … the XLF is close to being a sell if not already one.

XLF update
XLF update

Part 3 took a look at technology:

Palladium has an extremely nice sell pattern and multiple patterns were hit or are about to hit …NASDAQ futures have an extremely strong target and sell pattern coming in right here, right now

NAZZIE Futures Continuous Contract
NAZZIE Futures Continuous Contract

Part IV was energy

this is the one sector that isn’t showing a clear SELL signal – yet.  As you can see below w/ the XLE a case can be made for another 10% higher or it needs to start down now…energy could be the one sector that holds this puppy up for now.

Energy, a case could be made for continued strength thereby delaying the move down in the S&P
Energy, a case could be made for continued strength thereby delaying the move down in the S&P

and finally, part V was the look at ratio’s and sector rotation:

the pattern has completed perfectly and even w/ the S&P making new highs, this pattern has held …. this is bearish for the overall equity market.

a turn in this ratio has been present at EVERY major inflection point since 2000.  a BUY in the ratio is a SELL in equities
a turn in this ratio has been present at EVERY major inflection point since 2000. a BUY in the ratio is a SELL in equities



ACWI, XLF, NAZZIE, SELL pattern complete/completing.

XLP/SPX ratio showing a beautiful BUY (SELL equities) pattern …

US DOLLAR low in here or perhaps a little lower

ENERGY needs to be watched like a hawk….

Do you really want to be long this market?  The only way I would stay LONG is if all the above fails and, quite frankly, that could happen.  So, watch ENERGY and DOLLAR strength for first clues.



DAILY S&P CASH sell patterns appearing
DAILY S&P CASH sell patterns appearing





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