Tag: indu

THE SQUARE OUT – August 27, 2025

getting to big inflection point .. could go either way but looks like resistance ahead based on Europe (?)

In studying the markets, which for me have been 25 years studying nothing but sacred geometry, musical theory, Pythagorean theory, kaballah, astrology, astronomy – basically consciousness – one might understand the sheer synchronicity of approaching resistance on the NYSE Index (NYA).

When you look at geometry, the SQUARE (90-23.4 = 666 – the tilt of our planet …hmmm ) is of utmost important. So, when we take a square w/ unit 1 on all it’s sides and put a 45 degree line on it we now have the Square Root of 2 or 1.4142. A KEY number sprinkled throughout creation – remember, even the very hairs on your head are numbered – so this 45 degree angle from its origin point when hit represents the perfect balance. In this case of a chart, that is when price equals time. It’s perfect …

The charts below represent, precisely, an equal number of calendar days moved horizontally by the number of days moved vertically. The 45 degree angle.

The NYA, since inception is close to having price equals time. It might never get there and, frankly, it could blow thru it and all this hoo bah is nonsense, so lets just check it out. As the immortal Big Lebowski said, “well, that’s your opinion man…”

and then we have this, courtesy of Mr. Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15038207/France-faces-catastrophic-2-85TRILLION-debt-explosion-meltdown-minister-warns-country-heading-IMF-bailout-Emmanuel-Macrons-government-verge-collapse.html

And then, this beauty w/in the KBW Banking Index …

Looks like were close, doesn’t it?

But, what’s been trusty as heck … the old XLP / NYA … and w/ a few days left in the month certainly appears that this will be a monthly close below the monster 10+ year support and is bullish for stocks.

This one is going to be interesting … this is going to be a big one folks. We either pause for a nice little dump OR we explode to the upside. Just remember that EVERYTHING is connected (I mean it and I could blog all night about that) but I’m talking about the banking system so, says we haves a couple countries that can’t continue w/ the craziness of their debt problems (hmmmm) so they go to the IMF to do what … print more USD? Hmmm, not sure how to do that …maybe not too smart, nobody wants USD so how about Bitcoin – that makes sense but let’s do our own CBDC’s and the banks go ‘ night night.’

Who knows folks …

Markets Part II

6 weeks later, still up against the PATTERN levels. I do think this will be resolving, soon. Which way – not even going to try and guess!

Last post on the Markets: https://bartscharts.com/2024/12/17/markets-december-17-2024/

6 weeks later …

The big one to watch is the PATTERN FAILURE on the European Banks.

Banks/Financials are still key.

Where are we …

Patterns appearing all over the place …the only ones that count are the BANKS/FINANCIALS. They will lead us up and lead us down … bank on it … (get that?)

Let’s make this simple.

I’m watching a few things:

  • Banks/Financials – they always lead us UP and they always lead us DOWN. They are approaching major targets. BUT WAIT – the European Financials just BLEW THREW 2 projections and a retracement level. (see below) – are they going to vacuum the banks/financials in the US w/ them … if they do, we ain’t going down folks. HOWEVER, if the banks/financials start down, then you might think of getting VERY conservative. We’ll find out in a few days or so, I suspect.
  • XLP/NYA – held for now. That’s ‘bearish’ for stocks but if we lose that 13 year support line then these stocks could take off higher. DO NOT BE LONG THE STOCKS WHEN THE PATTERN COMPLETES LOWER ..for now, see what this important ratio does.
  • I’m also watching the strength in Junk Bonds – junk bonds go up – it’s game on folks and they have yet to break down.
  • At the end of this post, take note of the Japanese Yen … sure looks like it wants to get stronger and remember the last time THAT happened?

Last – might want to go load up on some coffee. Coffee futures are rolling thru a long term projection.

Bring on the Charts!

forgot to label, the chart below is Copper Futures

Markets – December 17, 2024

Markets are topping or have topped. Caution is warranted …

Folks, next set of targets, across the board, are here … the prior pattern targets all failed so who knows what is going to happen next. It’s just patterns folks.

CAUTION certainly warranted here …maybe take profits w/ a weekly/monthly signal reversal candle?

DJIA – July 15, 2024

DJIA has topped or is topping a little higher.

Last post on DJIA: https://bartscharts.com/2023/12/18/dow-jones-industrial-average-december-18-2023/

Folks, if you want to see why 40,655 isn’t a random number then take a peak at the link above. I was taught this technique by my mentor and friend, Michael Jenkins, and it’s basically using logs – the actual numbers – for projections. In the case above, I noticed something interesting w/ “musical note E” as its projection was present – almost to the point – at the highs in 1987 and 2007. Yeah, no kidding, take a look.

Hence – 40, 655 is a key level and take a note, just a little higher is my favorite technique – Mr. Measured Move.

Now, want to see something amazing? Take a peak to the left side of the chart and you’ll see the harmonics of EVERY MAJOR move in the DJIA. Amazing.

So, just a little higher than the level above, is the measured move and then, when we go down to the daily, you’ll see an almost perfect three drives to a top – right at our level! Can’t make this crap up peeps, can you?

So, that red zone is my target area.

Of course, I don’t have to remind you that at times all this work gets smoked and run over like a freight train. Hence, you never know folks.

One last, thru a little numerology in there … no kidding as I was typing it just came to me to “check out” the current high w/ the all time low.

1.4142 = square root of 2.

28.48*1414.2 = 40, 283

And, let’s not forget this amazing trend line (hint hint from the all time low) that we are batting up against. Yes, I know I truncated the high in the late 1920’s. The reason I did that is because it fits nicely the rest of the price chart. It “looks good” to me.

The .382 of the entire darn run from 28.48 is – basically – 25,000. I’ll take it and, in the big scheme of things might seem like a big correction, but it really isn’t it. Depending on the environment going around, that might be a superb BUY to get into this insane run.

Who knows, but for now, I’m thinking we hit the breaks for a bit.

The Markets – March 24, 2024

The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.

As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.

Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.

Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:

On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.

If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.

Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.

Where are you Mr. KRE?

The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.

The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.

I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.

We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?

Larry showed this over the weekend:

when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:

A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.

When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.

The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.

There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …

NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.

Here’s LLY parabolic:

Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:

The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.

If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.

I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.

ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …

IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.

IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.

MANAGE THE RISK … that’s all we can do.

Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes it eats you …

love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.

so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.

what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …

but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.

also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …

we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …

all probability …

DJIA 3 drives to a top pattern Monday 11/30/20

the two charts below are showing 2 three drives to a top pattern … the timing shows Monday 11/30 as the key date.

this chart is a 15 minute chart and showing the “three drives within a three drives” … kind of like Inception “dream w/in a dream w/in a dream” I guess ….

there are some higher targets but I would consider a daily close BELOW the gap area shown to be important for the bull case.

28.48 and the DOW

if you do a search around music on this blog you’ll see a pretty long post about using music and logs to calculate targets. a chart from that blog is here:

until tonight did I think about the correction this year and it’s harmony w/ 28.48. well, shucks, it perfectly nailed the .382 from that all time low. we will see some iteration of 28.48 at the final high – whenever that may be because TIME will always EQUAL PRICE at the final high or low.

long long way to go to 40K and it won’t occur in a straight line BUT hopefully some of us will be around when it hits that upper target ….