Tag: bkx

What to watch – September 21, 2025

Major patterns completing … expect big resistance, soon!

I think everyone can feel an upcoming correction or point of resistance approaching for the US equities market. There is a LOT going on … I can tell you, without reservation, that I have no idea which way we will go …

Intuitively I sense resistance approaching – why?

It all goes back to the circle, square and the triangle … 3 in 1 … square the circle … vesica piscis .. blah blah blah.

I really appreciated all the people texting me on 9/16/25 or 3/4/5 the ‘natural square’ date …yes, we all learned Pythagorean Theorem and something about the hypotenuse and blah blah blah. Remember? What we WERE NOT taught was the Pythagorean Theorem is actually one of the foundational building blocks for everything. Yeah, you read that right. So, I wanted to text them back “thanks for the reminder of the mathematical foundations of this mathematical 3D matrix of consciousness” so, instead, I texted back something like “ha, thanks!” What a great day! 🙂

So, back to the square … say the sides are all equal to Unit 1 (note, this has a TON to do with what is on the back of the US Dollar Bill. :)). To bisect this square we use a 45 degree angle (who’s side is now 1.4142 – the square root of 2 ;)).

That 45 degree angle, anytime, it’s touched will show a corresponding PRICE and TIME equivalency. Price on the vertical and Time on the horizontal. THAT should act as support or resistance, depending on the direction of price movement. In this case we are going UP, quite a lot frankly.

So, on the DJIA and the NYSE Index we have pretty big TIME/PRICE square outs. The DJIA from the all time low of 08/08/1896 at 28.48. Today, that was 47160 calendar days ago … so, if tomorrow PRICE goes up and smacks into 47161 EXPECT resistance. Again, doesn’t have to work, it could gap and go over it … it’s all probability.

The NYSE Index, from its inception and first day of trading on 01/03/1966 was 21811 days ago. So, tomorrow the price target will be 21812.

These two numbers represent TIME AND PRICE equality and, therefore, SHOULD act as resistance.

The other thing that I’ve been watching is the banks/financials. We have had these two LONG TERM targets for a while and, it does appear, they are being hit/close to being hit. IF the market is going to hit resistance THEN the financials and banks will be stopping in/around here and a pullback SHOULD ensue.

Folks, take a moment to peak at the KBW above … EVERY SINGLE SWING (purple measured moves) has been the same and, last Friday we closed right at the measured move price. There are targets higher, as shown, but boy are we close, right?

The XLF is getting into lofty territory …

Here’s the Global Dow:

I was looking at the YEN and decided to peak at the Nikkei 225 and holy smokes was this one a barn burner! A 75 year ABCD projection that hit on Friday …

Take the USD … sure looks like it is getting close to a MAJOR buy pattern:

And, last chart, Mr. Trusty Dusty XLP/NYA. We finally broke the 12+ year support zone (kind expected) and the market has taken off. Folks, here’s the BIGGEST PATTERN out there in my very humbled opinion. It’s a PERFECT BUY pattern on the XLP/NYA a little lower.

I can say w/ conviction, I DO NOT want to be long stocks when that level is hit as I expect it to be MAJOR support which corresponds to BIG RESISTANCE FOR EQUITIES.

So, we are so close to some BIG PATTERNS completing …

Good to be back – Bart

PS – might want to check this out. Pretty trippy … why would I put this here you might ask yourself? See above … the SAME GEOMETRY that we are talking about above is present in this sphere that is dated 12,000+ years ago. Wakey wakey eggs and bakey … 😉

The Markets – September 2, 2024

This upcoming week is a big week from a cycles perspective. Not as clear cut as it was in Mid-July but STILL a time for caution. WATCH THE YEN.

This has been some rebound and move higher – across the board.

We are coming into a VERY key week from a cycles perspective and that means we could start down around mid-week or we explode higher. I was bearish going into the highs I blogged about in mid-July w/ the YEN hitting major targets and the DOW JONES hitting the measured move targets. There was a LOT of major long term targets that were hit and the market reacted downward, pretty strongly. But, that has all dissipated.

On the NYA we have a LONG TERM 1.618 projection target about 6% higher. There is also a Geometrically Derived (center of the Vesica Pisces) target a little higher. This entire zone “should” be resistance.

If NVDA blows thru thru the .786, then another target looms a little higher.

The banks have been rallying – they are NOT near the all time highs and are approaching resistance.

The XLP/NYA ratio is close to MAJOR support and if we lose that ‘neckline’ of support you can see the BUY of the ratio down at the ABCD on the .786. If we lose this support on the ratio, then I find it hard to believe the market will go down. Watch this level closely.

Even JUNK BONDS have gotten into the game BUT , again, a large target looms a little higher.

Look at the size of this candle wick in the VIX. WOWZA …

Home builders are cruising – but take a looksy a little higher and we have a major target appearing.

Here’s another target a little higher on the S&P 500.

And last, but not least, we have the USDJPY. The YEN is the big canary in the coal mine. Just a little higher is the .618 price projection and .786 and then the ABCD higher.

In July, it looked pretty clear cut that resistance was being hit .. now, it’s NOT as clear but still begs of caution going into this week.

I’m looking for the targets on the JPY to be hit …that will tell us a lot about where we are.

The Markets – March 24, 2024

The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.

As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.

Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.

Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:

On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.

If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.

Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.

Where are you Mr. KRE?

The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.

The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.

I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.

We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?

Larry showed this over the weekend:

when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:

A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.

When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.

The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.

There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …

NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.

Here’s LLY parabolic:

Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:

The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.

If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.

I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.

ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …

IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.

IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.

MANAGE THE RISK … that’s all we can do.

Banks/Financials – January 7, 20224

Last post on Banks/Financials: https://bartscharts.com/2023/12/04/banks-financials-december-4-2023/

Update …

If you’re a BULL you want these patterns to FAIL.

If you’re a BEAR you want them to WORK.

Banks/Financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.

Decision time Banks/Financials …

Also, take a look at XLF … completed, not only a Gartley SELL but it also has an embedded BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN w/in the Gartley. IF XLF gets above the upper zone of the red rectangle – off to the races but it has to get thru a LOT of resistance, first.

Cheers – Bart

Banks/Financials – December 4, 2023

It’s all PATTERNS – at least for me.

Here are three VERY NICE SELL Patterns across 3 securities that represent a majority of the banks/financials that are out there. The PATTERNS are saying sell and, if you look at XLF below, the PATTERNS are only 2-4% away so it’s not that inconceivable that they could go up and tag those targets.

Look – folks WE WANT THEM TO GO UP AND COMPLETE the patterns because then we will have, what I consider a GREAT leading indicator to help us position on the short or long side – FAILED PATTERNS.

IF these patterns hold and work then the banks/financials start down which, invariably, will hit the equities. IF they FAIL then the banks/financials surge higher and the probability that this market melts up gains some higher probability.

So, watch these patterns, very closely. They will give us a good idea on where we are … in some of the briefs I do out there I ALWAYS talk about failed patterns, because they do fail, but these failures, in the market we are in now, are very powerful and indicative of what is “really” going on …

Cheers …

Banks/Financials – July 27, 2023

Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm

Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?

Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.

WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.

The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.

for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …

below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.

the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.

pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:

Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds

JPM – May 21, 2023

This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.

Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?

Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/

Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.

But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:

KRE Regional Banks ETF – May 12, 2023

Last post on KRE: https://bartscharts.com/2023/04/30/kre-regional-banks-etf-april-30-2023/

Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.

Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.

KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:

  • 58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
  • 1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
  • .707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
  • Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
  • Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
  • RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009

Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?

DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)

Here’s why:

So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).

What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.

Good weekend to all – B

Banks – March 26, 2023

Last post on the banks: https://bartscharts.com/2023/03/13/banks-march-13-2023-updated/

Folks … can’t objectively say what “it” is but something is afoot at the circle K …

Whatever it is or isn’t we do have a pretty good line in the sand.

The chart above is “log scale” … take a look at:

  • Measured move PERCENTAGE CORRECTION (red arrow)
  • Percentage ABCD (blue arrows)
  • Trend line
  • Multiple ratios …

Let’s call that level our line in sand. If we take the chart and make it “normal” scaling that level is important and maybe a little lower. Watch that .786 retracement level!

Goldman Sachs – March 11, 2023

Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.

That buy PATTERN is a classic.

ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.

Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)