6 weeks later, still up against the PATTERN levels. I do think this will be resolving, soon. Which way – not even going to try and guess!
Last post on the Markets: https://bartscharts.com/2024/12/17/markets-december-17-2024/
6 weeks later …
The big one to watch is the PATTERN FAILURE on the European Banks.
Banks/Financials are still key.
Patterns appearing all over the place …the only ones that count are the BANKS/FINANCIALS. They will lead us up and lead us down … bank on it … (get that?)
Let’s make this simple.
I’m watching a few things:
Last – might want to go load up on some coffee. Coffee futures are rolling thru a long term projection.
Bring on the Charts!
forgot to label, the chart below is Copper Futures
Markets are topping or have topped. Caution is warranted …
Folks, next set of targets, across the board, are here … the prior pattern targets all failed so who knows what is going to happen next. It’s just patterns folks.
CAUTION certainly warranted here …maybe take profits w/ a weekly/monthly signal reversal candle?
Love ratio analysis and also love using the PATTERNS w/ it …
Here’s the S&P 500 / VIX ratio.
Note the resistance area we are at or maybe a little higher. Also, take note how high the ratio is compared to, say, 2007? WOW.
My musical note log projection got SMOKED today and so did the PATTERNS. I’m not there yet, mostly because the broader market really didn’t participate .. the DOW and R2000 but the other indices were barely up.
I’m about to throw my “short” strategy in the trash can … another up day like today on WED will have me take out the eraser.
No worries, the PATTERNS aren’t perfect … but man did this one sure look like a GREAT set up. We’ll see …
On the daily chart, below, we can clearly see 5 waves up completing … guess the questions is as follows:
Is this a BIG 5th wave completing OR is it the first wave of 5 waves?
Nobody really every knows.
Extremely important pattern appearing on the S&P 500 / ES tonight. As I was cruising the charts I noticed this SELL PATTERN on the cash S&P 500:
The reason this is so important is the most recent high is “supposed” to be the second wave / b-wave high and we “should” be going down … failing this pattern STILL gives weigh to the higher target shown and we have that BIG GAP to fill so it’s not a “sure thing” for the bulls but I live and die by the PATTERNS and this one is a nice one … if you see (not labeled) the 3 wave move to the recent high that we are shorting fits ‘nicely’ into a 2nd wave and, again, we “should” be going down in/around here and pretty much, now …
why now? let’s go to the ES
I like the “concept” of square outs as it’s pretty simple … price equals time. so xyz many points down converts to days and then you use calendar days (in this case) to project a future “square out” of price and time.
in this case, the market fell 283.75 points and, moving a decimal (trust me we can do that – go read or follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant – he’ll explain it. Too long to do here … anyway that becomes 28.3 calendar days and, from tomorrow 09/15/2023 if you go back that many days you get the low at 4350 on 08/18/2023. A “square out” takes place on the E-mini tomorrow and it’s up against a BIG resistance zone – sure looks like a short too me? Doesn’t it?
VERY important level approaching in/around 4500 and hen 4525-4550. Frankly, these levels are the last gasp hope for the bears.
Note, the time worked out very nicely but the PRICE was not hit and we’ve held support. Doesn’t look to inconceivable that the targets above won’t get attacked in the coming days?
Last post on S&P 500: https://bartscharts.com/2023/03/21/dollar-and-stocks-march-22-2023/
All eyes remain on the USD. we have a large target looming a little lower.
That being said, we are approaching a very critical time from a cyclic perspective. We have also completed a “valid” SELL pattern on the SPX. So, we either start down early this week or we blast thru the pattern higher into more targets.
Either way, I DO NOT think that the market is done going down. We have more waves lower … the timing will be dependent on the US DOLLAR and the PATTERNS present.
Perspective … we made a higher low today. Let’ that sink in …
Now, my stance is to remain bearish and I do believe we are in the very early stages of a smashing wave 3 and, add fuel to the fire, it’s a “3rd of a 3rd” wave down. Wonderful …
Near term, the market DID NOT go up to our target up around 3956 but it did smack right into the trendline giving us the polarity principle.
Two scenarios:
