The entire read area is the big zone of resistance. So, while it is exciting to see the strength of the market (s) – they are banging into STIFF resistance.
So, CAVEAT EMPTOR, for now … let’s see them blow thru the above resistance before I really get on the bandwagon.
Then there is my “go to” – XLP / $NYA.
Yes, there are only 30 stocks compared to the 5000+ for the NYA, I’m looking for “institutional sentiment” by the ratio.
The thesis being IF this was truly RISK ON THEN this ratio would be falling hard. Note, it is not. In fact, it found support at the largest (pink) corrective move in the history of the ration (roughly 20+ years) and there was a “daily 3 drives” right at that level and, thus far, it’s showing strength.
Hence, the market should be finding resistance/going down … it’s not so something is amiss now isn’t it? Yes.
Either the ratio blows thru (to the downside) the .618 retracement and the .618 abcd and the largest measured move down ever (pink arrow) and, finally, a daily 3 drives then YES this is a very bullish market and the ratio will probably go lower causing the markets to explode even higher and target the lower level … then she tops.
Who knows? For now, I’m just waiting to see which way she blows and then try (operative word) to get a piece of it and not be greedy or emotional. Tough sometimes, isn’t it?
Then we can’t forget to mention the coolest/craziest square out that we’ll ever see in our lifetimes again – today is 18, 121 calendar days from the all time low in 1974. I took a look at the last time the trend line was hit and it took almost 5 months for the market to finally give away. So, perhaps we shuck and jive up hear up and down until she just gives? Certainly a possibility….
Take a look at the chart on the hourly. Note, the “exact” trend line could be off w/ slippage and the chart package but close enough. So, I just don’t see the market taking off like crazy w/ this square out happening – now. But, the market is always right, so maybe it doesn’t care about the biggest square out ever ? Perhaps not?
Geometry …from one vector radius or measured move. See it to believe it and then BELIEVE and then you will REALLY SEE it …
Slider’s been added to the mix.
Slider and Ponch and I all flew together when at the FRS. While I was “technically” their instructor, those two dudes were teaching all of us … it’s all coming back to me now. I now remember them always challenging “technical” aspects of different weapons systems w/ well thought and researched questions.
I don’t remember if I ever answered one correctly.
They are also two incredibly gifted and patriotic men … love these guys and, seriously, if you could see the content of our text threads. It’s a riot …digression complete.
Anyway, at almost 10 pm EST for Ponch he called me and I could tell he was “in the zone” … we talked “this” stuff and left w/ a concept of inflection points as we were relating it to when we flew low levels – 500 ft / 500 mph and Ponch was actually an F14 Airshow Crew so he got REALLY low and really fast. Man, those days were truly a blast. But, we talked about upcoming turn points and width of route and everything in between …
Around 10 minutes later I got this in text:
“@Bart  Slider made a connection back to  Reality switch technologies when we were talking FEP/Act Inf and E-M theory.Â
The turns points we talked about tonight are attractors. They are part of the world space landscape.
The world space landscape is consciousness, it is learning, not static. This means attractors move. No map can reflect the terrain. The terrain is the map.
Patterns you are uncovering contain attractors (turn points).
The gap between what your patterns reveal and actual reality is known as surprise (Boyd called this New Information and mismatches, it also goes by entropy). We seek to minimize surprise.
How do we minimize surprise? We predict where we expect to find attractors (turn points). “
So, my commitment is, as we continue to dive into this “stuff,” I’m going to document it … we are onto an idea and Ponch / Slider have the scent. I’m honestly just along for the Patterns. (they’ll dump me in a heart beat when the next pattern guy comes along … 🙂 )
You might want to tell your friends to follow along … why not? It’s free … LOL.
Anyhoo … as we look at the market, one of the things I told Ponch is IT DOESN’T MATTER which swing we pick when we start to create its geometry. The only thing is we want to capture a “swing.” A major high and a major low …
This is why I use long term monthly charts and try to capture as much or all of the chart data/history as possible. Why? Because these ARE the swings – everything else underneath them are – perfect – FRACTALS of the BIG SWINGS. Or, if you would like to look at it in another way, the monthly swings are the result of the first 1 minute or tick chart low to high (assuming most charts these days are going UP) which was the metaphorical rock hitting the water but w/ an expansive force that would be governed by what? The laws of waves, which abide by the laws of music which ultimately produce – the geometry we see w/in all of our reality.
So, below you will see the progression from a “random” swing that I chose and the expansions both back into the past and into the present and future that abide by the natural law governing – well -us all.
SURF.LIVE.
Why not try it yourself – it’s that easy. I mean, come on, if your reading this blog? 🙂
So, as you can see, that one blue vector caused the geometry shown in the above charts which are pretty amazing if you look how the EXACT same delta outside the arc that was support back in the past, replicated itself EXACTLY the same price amount as the past. And, if you just “expand” the arc by 2.o and let your eye study the last chart you will see the “mirror opposite” correction occurring opposite the circle and along the same arc and price total of the one in the past. Wow.
But when things REALLY get fascinating (because it does STILL fascinate me) is because when you put the “entire matrix framework” together you get an amazing picture. Why so amazing?
Think about it – these trendlines and intersections are causing future and past inflection points or angles of ascent and descent based on the GEOMETRY SET by the angular (price and time) VIBRATION of that “blue measured move” down ….
And what’s that vibration do – just like the entire universe – it becomes form.
Study this chart … replicate it. It’s meditative. Or at least is has become …
A vibration is set in this 2D representation of PRICES MOVING THRU TIME when a security COMPLETES a major long term swing. A swing determined by a major swing low to a major swing high (preferably the first on a long term chart) or vice versa.
The vibration becomes form governed by natural law. What? Well, in a 2D world the platonic solid for that is a CUBE.
Hence, it’s just squares peeps …hence the reason we draw them based on the angular (PRICE and TIME) displacement occuring in the 2d representation of this event occuring w/in this game called life …
Our job, at least mine? Find the patterns to simply manage risk. The same patterns which repeat – as fractals – specifically governed by the emotional vibration of the masses which are trading the same securities day after day … and that’s why the patterns work … because they are, work with me here, simply geometric representations of the frequency, accordingly, NUMBERS that the masses put off subconsciously into TIME AND SPACE (sound familiar) leaving footprints for us to exploit to MANAGE RISK. (That’s all it is) and, since human nature never changes – “there is nothing new under the sun” – the PATTERNS representing the masses vibrational emotions of fear and greed are geometrically created by the same math and music that governs us all …
Now, one last …
Go ahead and make sure you blow up the picture above and spend a little time meditatively staring at the “center point” (where the purple and orange square trend lines meet and start the blue corrective move down) and you’ll begin to, slowly see triangles, then the triangles go together and then you’ll see – yup – the pyramid. Hugh … imagine that.
But now, keep just lifting that “center point” up from there and you’ll see the pyramid nice and clearly. Now, blink, and overlay the Square of 9 numbers on top of this pyramid and – now – do you BELIEVE?
Because if you BELIEVE you will SEE how this all works …
The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.
As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.
Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.
Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:
The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:
On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.
If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.
Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.
Where are you Mr. KRE?
The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.
The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.
I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.
We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?
Larry showed this over the weekend:
when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:
A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.
When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.
The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.
There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …
NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.
Here’s LLY parabolic:
Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:
The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.
If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.
I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.
ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …
IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.
IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.
The concept of a “square out” is one of the most important in all of harmonic trading.
In this case, we believe that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … they are a NUMBER and they are intertwined. Say price makes a high (or low) of 50 … then 50 seconds, 50 hours, 50 days, 50 degrees of planetary motion (time), etc. etc. are spun out.
For the NYSE Index we have a BIG square out approaching.
The all time low on the NYSE Index was on 10/03/1974. That was, from tomorrow, 18050 calendar days ago.
18050-17728 (Friday’s close) = 322 points.
We are 322 points away from a HUGE square out of PRICE and TIME.
Take note of the last “big high” about 2 years ago … in that case, the market closed at 17,259 which so happened to be EXACTLY 17,259 calendars from the all time low. That is the significance of the red trendline – it’s the 45 degree angle and 1:1 or 1 point/day trendline. We REALLY want to NYSE Index to climb another 300 points to tag that red trend line … perhaps that happens mid-late next week.
Additionally, we have pretty large bearish divergence on the MONTHLY RSI and we have the same “fractal” pattern that existed in the move before the 2020 thump.
Then, just a little bit higher we have the measured moves which have been responsible for EVERY UP MOVE since the beginning of this index.
I sense/ believe, we are getting very close to a top (maybe THE top but I sense “A” top) ….
You’re probably aware the fear and greed sentiment indicators are thru the roof w/ extreme greed and then “Mr. Reliable” shows up … the “magazine cover indicator”
Last, here’s the geometry of the NYSE Index derived from the BIG MOVE off the low from 1974.
On this chart you will notice I put the “retracements” at the lows of 2002, 2009 and 2020 using the “node” of the all time low. The reason I do this is to check and see (Ronald Regan – TRUST but verify) if this is a significant node. As you can see, drawing the retracement grids using the all time low as near perfect.
2002 = .382 retracement
2009 = .618 retracement
2020 = .382 retracement.
This is a good number …how good?
Well, 350*51.50 = 18, 025 which so happens to be the exact angle of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Just saying …. 😉
That vector (blue arrow) represents the “rock hitting the water” and creates the harmony and music ….
And, of course, all this means is it could very well blow thru this level and take off parabolically.
Just like the last post on the Banks ( https://bartscharts.com/2023/07/01/xlf-financials-july-01-2023/ ) the NYSE Index – an index composed of all the stocks traded on the NYSE (~5000 securities) – is tipping it’s hand and showing a VERY important SELL PATTERN.
In this case, we have ABCD in PRICE and TIME.
If this market is bearish, this sell pattern will work …
If this market is bullish, this sell pattern will fail and the band will play on …
The PRICE AND TIME aspect of this PATTERN make this one VERY important …
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
well, we have a DAILY breakout above the channel that has been defining the ratio for pretty much all of 2021. is this a valid breakout or a gotcha? I’ll make an educated guess once we close this week out … looking for a WEEKLY close above the top of the channel w/ strength.
will be interesting to see what happens w/ the Palladium level ID’d on the post before this one … we are getting to a point where one of the PATTERNS will fail and that will give us a good idea of where we are …
chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.
the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)
note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?
