Tag: eurjpy

YEN – March 03, 2025

Yen getting ready to roll …?

the YEN – strength? – July 13, 2024

The YEN, across the board, respected the PATTERNS and strength for the YEN has happened across the board.

It’s fallen out of the ‘hype cycle’ since last July … I think its about to get in the news again.

Going to go a little esoteric on you but I want us all to understand the potential move that is going to occur.

BLUF: high probability of a year+ (?) move in the YEN – strength.

But, let’s take a step back to the magical 1.618.

The USDJPY topped at 161.8 or 1.618.

The all time high on the USDCAD? 1.618. Yup, no kidding.

So, as I was looking at the two charts I thought – that’s a very important number. What really caught my eye was the harmony and moves after the high at 1.618. Both fell, then came back right up into the .841-.886 retracement level.

Then, I though, I wonder if the SAME planetary vibration is present. See for yourself folks – Jupiter Helio squared the high – both times.

Now, put your eyes on the EURJPY – it’s the SAME picture that the USDCAD had (almost exactly) and that, folks, makes the probability of a big YEN MOVE coming, higher. Remember, it’s just a pattern … watch the cliff of the EURJPY peeps ….!!!

Check this out folks …

WOAH …

Where are we …

Patterns appearing all over the place …the only ones that count are the BANKS/FINANCIALS. They will lead us up and lead us down … bank on it … (get that?)

Let’s make this simple.

I’m watching a few things:

  • Banks/Financials – they always lead us UP and they always lead us DOWN. They are approaching major targets. BUT WAIT – the European Financials just BLEW THREW 2 projections and a retracement level. (see below) – are they going to vacuum the banks/financials in the US w/ them … if they do, we ain’t going down folks. HOWEVER, if the banks/financials start down, then you might think of getting VERY conservative. We’ll find out in a few days or so, I suspect.
  • XLP/NYA – held for now. That’s ‘bearish’ for stocks but if we lose that 13 year support line then these stocks could take off higher. DO NOT BE LONG THE STOCKS WHEN THE PATTERN COMPLETES LOWER ..for now, see what this important ratio does.
  • I’m also watching the strength in Junk Bonds – junk bonds go up – it’s game on folks and they have yet to break down.
  • At the end of this post, take note of the Japanese Yen … sure looks like it wants to get stronger and remember the last time THAT happened?

Last – might want to go load up on some coffee. Coffee futures are rolling thru a long term projection.

Bring on the Charts!

forgot to label, the chart below is Copper Futures

The YEN – October 13, 2024

The Yen hasn’t budged and crept a little higher towards the sell patterns. I imagine this week will be judgement day.

Last update on the Yen complex: The Yen – October 4, 2024.

Just over a week ago, I posted about the cautionary signals and multiple sell patterns forming in the Yen against the major currencies and a commodity-based currency (the Australian Dollar).

None of these patterns were triggered.

There’s a lack of momentum in the Yen market right now; typically, a trending market in the Spot FX space would have activated these patterns easily. Interesting development…

My point is, although we’re still climbing the wall of worry to reach new all-time highs in the equity markets, I think these Yen patterns against the majors need to fail. If they don’t, and the Yen strengthens across the board, it could become challenging for global equity markets to sustain their upward trajectory.”

And, here is the XLF and KBW Banking Index …

XLF is about to smack into MAJOR resistance. I’ve labeled em’ for your edification but the important one for me is the 4.236*AB = CD as that can usually signify the ‘end of a move’ as MSJ taught me. That has confluence w/ the 1.618 extension. Pay attention to that level …

KBW ‘popped’ from a triangle which usually (not a rule, just a nice to know of EWT) happens at the end of a 5th wave. A little higher is another projection/retracement level. This one isn’t a ‘no brainer’ but it has closed above the resistance which had held for a LONG time. Is it a trap? Guess we’ll have to wait and see …

NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) is about 3% from the next major target. No kidding, this is the biggest outlier for me as the 1×1 trendline from the all time low didn’t even cause a blip …

So there you have it. Yes, we very well could be exploding parabolically into new highs for the next couple of years. Yup … but, I’m not all in the boat, yet. Let’s smoke some YEN PATTERNS first and then, I’ll be a believer.

For now, I’m cautious.

The Yen – October 4, 2024

Here comes the Yen … its been VERY quiet over there so why not add a little volatility to the mix? SELL PATTERNS (Yen Strength) on the horizon.

Well, some weeks ago, the Yen is what cooked the entire thing off and don’t you think its time we add a little gas to the fire or are things hot enough? Well … guess what, PATTERNS again appearing across the board w/ the probability bet being YEN STRENGTH and the last time that occurred, we all knew what happened….

A picture paints a thousand words.

IF they “work” THEN the YEN strengthens and there might be some funds trapped again?

IF they “fail” THEN the YEN weakens and the band plays on and, frankly, we could be going parabolically higher. Which if your long is a GREAT ride, I have done it once in my life w/ Bitcoin and it was so HARD to cut the position at the top …but I did and for maybe one day I was like ” I need to get back in” but then it thumped down hard and I took my money out of bitcoin … like to chart it, but not trading that these days. Anyway, we could be going higher and a lot longer than people might think. GREAT … BUT … when it does crack, and it will, it will be a reckoning. I’d much rather have a good ole pullback are couple ‘scary the sky is falling CNBC measured move to BUY’ so, guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Here comes Mr Yen.

One last thing – the ONLY PATTERN which is not a PERFECT SELL is the USD vs JPY. Go figure … it’s still popping up into big resistance but all the other cross pairs – near perfect SELL PATTERNS. Probability says, they ‘should’ work …

Perhaps, hang on folks …

Bart

the YEN – strength? – July 13, 2024

All the YEN crosses are approaching or have hit major resistance.

The Yen, across the board is hitting MAJOR LONG TERM TARGETS. While, ultimately, I believe the YEN will weaken more over the long run, the patterns are saying this YEN weakness should be hitting major resistance. Across the board – they are all hitting.

Math we like … EUR vs JPY

believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …

I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …

in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.

I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.

Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.

let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …

oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….

good weekend to you – Bart