Need to watch the KBW here … take note of the two levels below which represent “gap support.” As long as KBW stays above these two support zones (expect the first to give away) then we are good to go …the BIG gap support is the key for me. That “should” hold if we are still very bullish …just because we lose it doesn’t mean the insanity of the “top of all ages” and “blah blah blah” is here. No, if you’ve been following this blog we’ve expected this level to be resistance for the equities …
As you have heard me say before – banks / financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Don’t get confused w/ the ‘arrows’ on the chart – they are “measured moves” and they are the harmony that causes the market to bounce around …
KEEP AN EYE ON KBW and the Banks/Financials … this SELL PATTERN on KBW has hit and has held.
Last, apologize for missing this SELL PATTERN – I simply had not looked at the KBW in a while and not until today.
Need to get thru topside resistance for they YEN and about 2-3% higher we have big resistance …
One of the best things I learned going thru the CMT process was the use of Ratio Analysis to look for relative strength.
If you’ve been following me you know I enjoy the ratio XLP (Staples) / NYA (NY Stock Exchange Index)
Here’s the theory:
In times of RISK ON (bullish) – the institutions rotate out of “safety” and into more riskier names. When the world gets crazy they need to go somewhere ..right? Go to toothpaste, toiler paper, soup, etc. STAPLES …
In times of RISK OFF (bearish) – the institutions rotate into “safety” and out of riskier names.
BULLISH – the ratio goes DOWN.
BEAIRSH – the ratio goes UP.
Now, in the midst of this continual bullish mania, where has this ratio gone? Nowhere … hmmmm.
Now, just 2.5-3% lower is a THE measured move that represents the biggest correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. We also have a .618 monthly price projection at that same level. This SHOULD act as support which SHOULD cause stocks to pullback. Pullback could be BIG.
Is this 2.5-3% lower stand alone … nope. What makes this VERY interesting is we have a 1.618 price projection from the all time low on the NYA … 2.5-3% higher.
We also need to watch the banks and financials … KRE, XLF and the Banking Index are all hitting BIG resistance.
The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.
As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.
Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.
Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:
The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:
On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.
If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.
Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.
Where are you Mr. KRE?
The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.
The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.
I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.
We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?
Larry showed this over the weekend:
when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:
A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.
When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.
The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.
There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …
NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.
Here’s LLY parabolic:
Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:
The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.
If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.
I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.
ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …
IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.
IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.
Banks/Financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Decision time Banks/Financials …
Also, take a look at XLF … completed, not only a Gartley SELL but it also has an embedded BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN w/in the Gartley. IF XLF gets above the upper zone of the red rectangle – off to the races but it has to get thru a LOT of resistance, first.
Here are three VERY NICE SELL Patterns across 3 securities that represent a majority of the banks/financials that are out there. The PATTERNS are saying sell and, if you look at XLF below, the PATTERNS are only 2-4% away so it’s not that inconceivable that they could go up and tag those targets.
Look – folks WE WANT THEM TO GO UP AND COMPLETE the patterns because then we will have, what I consider a GREAT leading indicator to help us position on the short or long side – FAILED PATTERNS.
IF these patterns hold and work then the banks/financials start down which, invariably, will hit the equities. IF they FAIL then the banks/financials surge higher and the probability that this market melts up gains some higher probability.
So, watch these patterns, very closely. They will give us a good idea on where we are … in some of the briefs I do out there I ALWAYS talk about failed patterns, because they do fail, but these failures, in the market we are in now, are very powerful and indicative of what is “really” going on …
Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm
Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?
Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.
WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.
The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.
for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …
below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.
the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.
pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:
Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds
Well folks, we are at a pretty big fork in the road. The SELL PATTERN on the SPX is “close” and pretty much hit and then the XLF went up and tagged the lower end of the sell zone … gapped up and then closed at the lower end. One can see a couple small laborious machinations up and down before the SPX target is hit so we can sneak into the upper half of the sell zone before really calling the PATTERN complete and the selling to begin – or not.
If this pattern fails, it might to be early to back up the truck, but the melt up will certainly continue …
But, don’t get too excited for that to happen. SOME STIFF RESISTANCE/SELL PATTERNS PRESENT in XLF aka FINANCIALS.
Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.
Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …
Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!
Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.
I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …
How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?
I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.
IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.
IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.
34-35.66 on the XLF.
One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.
This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.
Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?
Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/
Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.
But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:
