Japanese Yen Advance
Posted on October 10, 2013 1 Comment
I have been following this pattern closely … after an amazing move upward, we have been consolidating in what looks like a multi-month triangle. From a counting perspective it does fit the characteristics of a 4th wave so we’ll have to watch it closely for signs of the triangle being complete. At this point, right now, I don’t know. The symmetry of the ratio’s of the legs is “close” to the rules (they are supposed to be .618 of each leg) and the most latest low of yesterday finished a very nice buy pattern. For now I will sit on my hands … but the move is coming for weakness of the JPY versus the USD.
long term count
daily chart of triangle ratio’s and potentiality
other targets
pattern complete
60 min chart as of 0400 10/10/2013 … pullback coming to buy (?)
Staples Strength vs the S&P
Posted on October 7, 2013 1 Comment
if you wan to catch up I recommend reading the following two posts:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/22/the-upcoming-week-of-922-for-the-sp/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/25/the-ratio-of-staples-to-the-sp-xlp-spx-trust-me-its-important/
this AM, our pattern that we have been following has completed. what does that mean? the pattern either works or it doesn’t … if it works then our thesis is that the staples (as a sector of the overall market) will start to outperform on a relative strength basis (no not the oscillator) the general market. when this has occurred in the past, it has very nicely timed inflections points to the down side in the market ….
Long term monthly w/ bullish stair steps present
stay tuned … the symmetry of the BUY pattern in PRICE and TIME is very powerful that this level should hold.
the WMT greeter and inflection points
Posted on October 6, 2013 1 Comment
ratio analysis compares the relative strength of one security versus another. if the numerator is stronger then the ratio will go up and vice versa. what I try to look for are meaningful ratio’s that plot fear and greed and can warn us of potential inflection points in the market.
I am going to make an assumption that “everyone” loves Walmart ($WMT) and it’s place as a fabled American institution is a fact. Our thesis today is during BULL markets it will “not be as strong” as the overall market (the ratio of WMT/SPX will go DOWN) and during times of fear or volatility it will “be stronger” than the overall market (the ratio of WMT/SPX will go UP).
the chart below does a pretty good job of showing this assumption is valid.
the blue line is the SPX. the candles are the ratio of WMT/SPX. the dashed purple vertical lines are placed on the chart to show the inflection points at tops and bottoms.
note, in 2000 (high), 2003 (low), 2007 (high), 2009 (low) the ratio has 1) moved w/ almost the same velocity and 2) inflected almost exactly inverse as the S&P. HOWEVER from 04/2011-08/2012 the ratio actually trended with the overall market. (this is denoted by the blue arrow going up during this time frame) then, the ratio “went back to normal” and started going back down and the market continued up. an interesting divergence,,,,
ratio of WMT/SPX compared to the SPX
the power of pattern recognition is it works on everything. so, we can look for patterns w/in this ratio to show potential inflections and then wrap it into an overall look at different sectors w/in the SPX to make a reasonable guess at moves to come. also, the longer the time frame of the chart, the more powerful the potential pattern becomes.
the chart below shows a clear 5 wave move ending and a pattern to be completing just a little lower. this signals that IF (the big IF) the pattern holds and the ratio finds support and begins to move UP then we “should” see a corresponding move down in the overall market.
buy pattern coming into play a little lower
stay tuned and say hi to the next greeter you see and also tell them thanks for the market information!
Bart
Gold Silver Index – a guide for the yellow brick road?
Posted on October 3, 2013 1 Comment
To catch up to speed please view the following posts:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/07/good-as-gold-part-1-of-2/
https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/08/good-as-gold-part-2-of-2/
the gold silver index is correcting (or continuing lower) to very important levels – 88.69-89.36 or 86 or 84.21. We never know which level is going to hold or not … that being said, our continued outlook is to be bearish the metals from the perspective of Silver and Gold. I am still holding out for one more leg down …
watch these levels on the gold silver index as if they are taking out, then we have a good idea (probably) that Gold and Silver will also move to our long standing lower targets.
keep your powder dry …
Bart
Gold Silver Index approaching very KEY levels
Dollar Index done OR correcting or a little lower?
Posted on October 1, 2013 1 Comment
to get up to speed you can view my first post on the importance of the dollar: https://bartscharts.com/2013/08/20/the-usd-index/
so … if you have been reading/following I’m trying to get short the POUND or the EURO vs the Dollar. The dollar is a huge deal and w/ the EURO making up 60% of the index, it’s good to monitor. The POUND will shuck and jive but it only makes up around 11% of the index so you can’t be EXACT w/ it. The other major component is the JPY YEN at 14%.
metals and oil got hit — but note the strength of the “Oil Services Index” (that’s probably where the BUY program is running as there isn’t really any buying going on …)
so, looking for that low in the dollar to be carved out HERE or a little lower ….
stay tuned and keep your powder dry …
3 major patterns into a daily .786 retracement
IMPORTANT SELL PATTERN on the dollar .. if this holds it will open lower target IF it fails then good case for a dollar low (?)
big picture of the Dollar
TSLA, Patterns and dogfighting an F-14 in afterburner (check fuel!)
Posted on October 1, 2013 Leave a Comment
when there are more BUYERS the stock goes UP when there are more SELLERS the stock goes down. PERIOD … notice I didn’t mention anything about anything else because, quite frankly, NOTHING else matters. It could be the smartest MBA in Finance or CFA or the geekiest CMT on the planet using all kinds of technical indicators to show divergence, bollinger band breakout, moving average indicator w/ RSI or blah f’ing blah …. just find your edge, believe in your edge and invest w/ your edge. in the end, we are playing cowboy and indians shooting mouse clicks at each other. put your cowboy hat on or your indian out fit and go at it …
I love this quote from the Bible Luke 12:7: “Indeed, the very hairs of your head are all numbered.”
why? well, on a chart that is all we have until we start bastardizing them w/ all kinds of useless lagging indicators. We have a NUMBER for PRICE and a NUMBER for TIME.
so, we have PEOPLE (machines) who are buying and PEOPLE (machines) who are selling. (Machines can’t help be affected by the greed of the person who coded it) those people are governed by EMOTION and EMOTIONS go UP and they go DOWN. So, IF (the big IF) EMOTIONS fuel a move and NUMBERS are graphically showing the move then we can put the two together and develop patterns that show EXTREMES in emotional behavior. this is the nature of parabolic moves.
“calling” or “picking” tops has proven to be tough if not impossible … HOWEVER finding areas of potential tops/bottoms helps and then a STRATEGY to potentially take advantage of the inflection is a gameplan. (see Sugar post for an example)
the Greeks knew it, the Egyptians knew it and it’s the old “yin yang” coming right at ya … EXPLOSIONS up and down lead to corresponding moves in the opposite direction. It’s proven time and time again … parabolic moves are followed by devastating corrective moves.
see this post: https://bartscharts.com/2013/08/20/sir-issac-newton-and-aapl-fell-from-the-tree/
Now to $TSLA … this thing isn’t parabolic, it’s a ROCKET SHIP…good on them, holy smokes and KABOOM this thing has gone into orbit. as a market musician coloring pictures and going to 3rd grade geometry. that scares me like anything else out there …
here are some potential targets, but this move is OVER and what’s another 10% in the intervening 50+% correction that will be forthcoming.
my first signal would be a MONTHLY signal reversal candle. NOTE IT HAS NEVER GIVEN ONE SO UNTIL YOU GET ONE KEEP RIDING THE ROCKET SHIP.
But, like fighting 1v1 in a high performance fighter the real threat becomes FUEL after a while. you can’t stay in after burner forever … you’ll run out of gas and flame out, just like this high flyer.
parabolic advances of the NAZZIE, Home Builders, Financials and Cyclicals
the rocket ship
working the geometry to find the gravity center
some targets and observations
FIGHTS ON — note his wings are back against an F-16 at the merge — not good!
Great British Pound Update III and pumpkin soup
Posted on September 30, 2013 1 Comment
when I was flying and someone might have had a particularly bad night landing at the ship or performed the mission badly, invariably, someone would say “well at least your not eating pumpkin soup!” the Vietnam POW’s (God Bless Them All) had as one of their main meals the wonderful bowl of pumpkin soup…
so, perhaps I am eating pumpkin soup w/ regard to my analysis of the Great British Pound. I have NOT deployed capital even though I went to “pull the trigger” a couple times. the 200+pip move engineered by the FED on QE day warned to stay away. as noted, the original target was BLOWN THRU and then found some resistance in teh 1.6140-1.6177 area. I have included the ratio’s responsible for this (in my mind)
now, what to do … I can see a target in the 1.6331 area that I will now be hawking. we have exploded almost straight up since July w/ intervening orderly corrections. the trend line making the bottom of the multi-year triangle has now been opened and closed above (bullish) and, as of this AM, it’s still showing signs of strength.
my gameplan: wait for a sell pattern to appear on a lower, intra day timeframe ELSE wait for upper target in the 1.6300’s to be attacked. If that level is taken out I will go back to the drawing board and call my e
update to GBP vs the USD
ntire analysis of the pound over the past 1.5 years as WRONG. 😦
FACEBOOK ….
Posted on September 29, 2013 2 Comments
as hard as I try … it’s simply hard to not get caught up in the emotion/hope and chaos of the IPO. WE ARE ALL HUMAN!
Let’s face it … FACEBOOK has changed the game.
I spent last week at the Mid Atlantic Digital Marketing Summit and I was blown away by digital media and the incredible connected nature of our being – right here, right now. WOW … and, guess what, Facebook did it ….AWESOME!
so ( as a BEAR), when they went to IPO,I honestly thought they were like BLACK ROCK (BK) and thought … “this IPO will signal a top in the market.”
Well, as you my faithful readers know …it didn’t call a top in the market….
I was flooded w/ calls about “getting in the IPO of Facebook” and I told EVERYONE to “be patient, a buy will appear.”
So…this being BARTSCHARTS (thanks Kathy) here is the real time email traffic to my institutional clients:
Portfolio Manager
http://www.v50capital.com
703.431.9020
V50 Capital Management, LLC provides investment management and signal services for Commodities, Options and Forex investments. Note: Commodities, Options and Forex trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone; trading in these markets should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance either actual or hypothetical is not indicative of future performance.
V50 is NOT a registered securities adviser – the information/ opinion we provide in regards to Securities, Mutual Funds, ETFs and or Bonds (SEC regulated markets) is an uncompensated opinion; you are free to use this opinion in any manner you choose, and in no way affects the terms of service provided by V50 in regards to your managed Forex/ Commodities account.”
finding a pattern and placing it in the intermarket circle of life …
Posted on September 26, 2013 Leave a Comment
Update: looks like the level has held so pay attention to FXI in the coming days.
1/8th subdivisions of SRC appears to have worked
DEFINITION (BART’s) for the circle of life – fixed income, FX, equities (global and conus) and commodities and their symbiotic relationship.
in this case, we have a BUY pattern coming in a little lower on the AUSSIE vs the USD. The following three charts show how you can diligently walk thru finding a pattern by projection, extension and retracement. Here’s the flow in chart form:
retracements
extensions
projections
as you can see above, after a rather strong move up – after quite the beating – we have a normal/controlled and pretty unremarkable pull back in the AUSSIE vs the USD. I say all that because this can sometimes be a rare occurrence. My specialty is the SPOT FX market … I like to call it the wild wild west. That being said, the patterns do work in this 3-4 Trillion Dollar/Day market.
An opportunity is simply presenting itself to manage risk. NOTHING more and/or nothing less. The pattern works or it doesn’t. Our job is to find these type of patterns and determine, beforehand, how much we are willing to risk. Because, in this world of investing/trading the ONLY thing we can control is how much risk capital to deploy. After we have entered the market, we are playing w/ dynamite being thrown by caged gorilla’s and, guess what, we are in the cage…
now, seeing this very nice level, we can now put this into the context of the intermarket world … perhaps you are aware and/or perhaps not but the AUSSIE’s do a lot (OK, probably a majority) of their trade w/ CHINA. Now, take a look at the correlation of FXI (ETF for CHINA LARGE CAP) and AUSSIE vs USD. Pretty nice and, it’s safe to say, by looking at the chart below that nice swings occur when both of them find inflection points.
so, what can we surmise …
IF AUSSIE level holds and the AUSSIE goes UP vs the USD then the Chinese market should follow higher …
IF AUSSIE level FAILS and the AUSSIE goes DOWN vs the USD then the Chinese market should follow lower …
Aussie and the FXI plotted together …
advanced pattern recognition in the intermarket circle of life ….
rock on, always
B
the ratio of STAPLES to the S&P ($XLP / $SPX) – trust me, it’s important
Posted on September 25, 2013 1 Comment
if you have the time, please read this post: http://allstarcharts.com/are-staples-the-key-to-this-market/ . You’ll note that I incorrectly saw a triangle and expected the market to roll over once the break out occurred. that analysis was wrong … however, the market went UP when the ratio went down — exactly like it’s used to. We are now approaching another pattern point here … the chart below shows how critical the time component has been w/ these corrective moves and also the beautiful BUY pattern we have approaching — If this pattern works then we should see the equities go down as this pattern works … if not, then the trend UP in equities will continue. To review, here is the pattern we are watching:
BUY pattern on the ratio
since a picture paints a thousand words and, quite frankly, I’m beat tonight I’ll SHOW you why this ratio has proven to be so accurate in the past. bottom line, every MAJOR MOVE since 2000 has been inverse to the move of this ratio. it’s almost EXACT ….I’m just going back to a weekly chart. see the above link for the monthly look.
ratio w/ the SPX overlaid on top off it as the line
as a advanced pattern recognition trader dealing w/ probabilities I think this level on the ratio will tell us EXACTLY where we are …. stay tuned and monitor closely.
B
Bart's Charts 