the joys of the puzzle …
a couple days ago I posted about the US Dollar missing my lower target and the potentiality of a bottom and even saw a “nice” inverse head and shoulders that IF it broke thru would be a bullish signal. it didn’t and, now, looks like my lower target is going to be attacked. quite frankly, I’m glad … for over 2.5 months i have steadfastly WAITED and deployed NO CAPITAL. Always, thinking, “I missed it” or “why the heck did it do that” or any number of ugly “little voices” that appear. my mentors have banged into my thick head to ONLY invest at PRECISE levels because then and only then can we manage the risk. I’ve taken that to the extreme and, quite frankly, it’s my Achilles’s heal from an PM perspective. making no apologies. I think the tendency to try and “nats ass” levels is based on the HOURS upon HOURS that I spent in the Navy precisely aligning attack vectors for putting a 2000 lb pound in the center of a window from 35,000 ft at 1.2 IMN. old habits are hard to break ….
the other reason is because of a chart like below:
if you take the time to STUDY the chart (and why not if your reading my post – thanks by the way) you’ll see the EXACT, again, EXACT measured moves at the low in 1992-1995 hit. so, in the context of WAITING 2.5 months for this opportunity to present itself, it’s really nothing in the context of 3 years. YES, there is and was a lot of money to be made day in and day out trading the swings. but you know what … I don’t like doing that. it doesn’t fit MY STYLE so I like to put the pieces of the puzzle together and deploy capital. So, this AM, let’s take a look at the pattern coming in on the US DOLLAR INDEX.