Tag: xlp/nya

Ratio’s – December 14, 2025

Many things have pointed to a market at current levels to expect signifigant resistance. Some has held, some hasn’t and, to be honest, I’m literally throwing up my hands and saying “just give me a pattern” … the ole XLP/NYA.

I didn’t know what to call this post, so I just put the date.

Over the weekend, I read everything from “we have another 4-5 years in this bull run” to an Elliott Wave label of a Grand Super Cycle III and my good friend and mentor Larry (trading daily for the past 50+ years) talk about a monster top here or inbound.

I

DO

NOT

KNOW

Just looking for a pattern … the CLEANEST PATTERN I SEE IS MY OLD TRUSTY XLP/NYA.

First, take a peak at this ‘static’ cycle – it was near perfect for about 15 years and then, w/ the recent cycle, it has failed. Hmmmmm ….

So, one would think w/ the measured move, the ‘timing’ and the patterns that we would have seen a more pronounced sell off. We did for a little bit but it still didn’t appear to be the ‘real pattern’ – that was lower.

Over the past year it’s been pretty frustrating, at least for me, in that I had a ‘bearish’ bias since the patterns that were completing was from years ago and sometimes 100’s of years ago. Why not at least expect a nice thump … well, some of the patterns have held, others worked in didn’t, some got smoked and some are still out there ….

This pattern, a little bit below is MASSIVE in it’s ramifications. From a simple ‘chart’ perspective it’s the first MONTHLY ABCD BUY PATTERN that is simply near perfect.

So, for my BULLS out there, you want this pattern to fail and if you can take all the gyrations that appears to be happening in the market I would hold your longs until the “short stocks” level.

And, for the BEARS, it certainly looks like the play to keep your sanity is to WAIT for the “short stocks” level to be hit on the ratio. Then, you have a well defined zone to understand your risk. We could be starting down hard … some think so. As discussed earlier, I have no idea. Nope … but, that level is SO BIG and we have so many ‘bearish’ fundies coming into play …

I sense a nice top is here or coming ….

Is the ratio going to break down – July 09, 2025

Looks like the ratio is going to break support. WAITING for a firm weekly close below …

As discussed previously, I’m hawking the XLP/NYA ratio. Noticed, yesterday, that even w/ the market flat/slightly down the ratio was trending lower. Sure looks like it wants to break support and go down to the pattern completion level at the .786. That’s bullish …

However, take note of the time cycles … it’s forecasting a ‘low’ in the ratio now – August.

To show the importance of this ratio, I put the NYSE Index (NYA) on top of the XLP/NYA ‘static time’ cycles and you can see that – while not perfect (remember this is a monthly chart and we could have some slippage in the overlay) it’s not a stretch to say that when the ratio has bottomed, the market has topped or topped soon thereafter w/ a month or so.

This market ‘could’ explode higher when we lose this support … all I know is we have 18 years of some pretty accurate ‘static cycles’ shown.

I’ll stay the course … need a WEEKLY close below the “15 year support zone” before initiating a long position.

I’ve been having a lot of fun over at https://www.stockmarkettv.com/ – check out some of the most recent posts: https://www.stockmarkettv.com/james-bartelloni

PS – no reason for the wave picture, I just felt like it would be a cool snap to put as a featured image.

XLP/NYA and IWM – April 08, 2025

The ratio foretold, nicely, some support, for now. IWM is looking SUPER bearish.

This ratio is so key …

We banged into two converging trend lines – resistance – that caused the ‘ratio’ to go down which led to ‘equities’ finding some support. Pretty ugly rally, if you ask me BUT we now know why we found the support.

If/when (certainly does seem like it) the upper trend line gets taken out to the upside, then the selling will more than likely continue (intensify?) up to the blue zone.

There we have 4 nice attributes to build a wall of resistance … I suspect that will hold. Not sure if this is IT and we go to new highs or it’s a bounce…. I think we’ll know if/when it occurs.

When we end up bouncing/find the low, I’ll take a peak at my trusty dusty (it is) 14 period RSI and see if we have broken any ‘bear’ or ‘bull’ zones … on long term charts, the market will tell you. Ms. Brown taught us that in her book and it’s a part of CMT II.

I’ll be looking on the hourly to see if/when support comes in for the ratio … expect this to be corrective and, therefore, swings will be crazy.

Honestly, just set your stops and take the rest of the week off …

The reason I hesitate to say BUY for new highs or BUY but it’s just a bounce is because I really have no clue …there are arguments (too many of them if you ask me) from both the bulls and bears. All I know is some LONG TERM targets were hit and, therefore, it should surprise us to see a 30-40 percent correction because that is what they done on most major CORRECTIONS.

Now, that being said, I want to post this chart of the IWM as this is the count I have been going w/ for a few years. (Still doesn’t mean its right, LOL!)

And away it went … one of the ‘best’ things I learned when starting to count (I’m still a work in progress w/ it) is look for form, balance and harmony. See how Wave 2 and Wave 4 just look right …?

So, if this count is correct (it’s guided me nicely for a while) then the Russell is cooked – night night – call it a qual. And to that, I say, WOW. Hope (a strategy) I’m wrong because -is it too crazy to be guilty by association – what does that say about the rest of the market? Is this a BIG BIG TOP?

XLP/NYA April 3, 2025

The XLP/NYA ratio is approaching KEY resistance. If this resistance holds, then the market (s) should find support …

Well, looks like the market broke …LOL.

For support, our first target has appeared nicely.

Watch this level on the XLP/NYA … probably tomorrow or Monday the way things have been going.

Also, don’t forget about the 1×1 trendline from the all time low on the NYA … if bullish, this should offer some support …

More targets, albeit lower, are appearing …

I sense/believe (therefore probably wrong) that this rally will be a chance to fade and short again.

While I’m aware, obviously, of the tariffs I’m not paying attention to any of it. The patterns warned us all the way back in December.

Folks, we have two nice projections into what SHOULD be support … hate to say it, IF these patterns fail, then this could REALLY accelerate to the downside. Stay vigilant …

XLP / NYA – December 4, 2024

XLP/NYA ratio approaching KEY support

We’ve discussed the ratio many times …

It hit a VERY nice PRICE AND TIME target and rallied nicely. Recently, as the stock market continues its relentless advance, it has pulled back as expected.

Now, we are close to VERY important support for the ratio … IF we find support and the ratio starts back up THEN we are in the beginning phases of the “risk on” phase as staples start to outperform, on a relative strength basis….

Pay attention … also, note the ‘basic’ static time cycle component …

Ratio Analysis – November 15, 2024

Big TIME and PRICE PATTERN completing/completed. Heads up to equities ..

For the market (US Equities) to continue higher, it will need to break the support level on the XLP/NYA.

Take note – it’s a PERFECT TIME AND PRICE correction equal to the last ‘largest’ corrective move.

As long as this holds, expect downside pressure on the equity market.

Ratio Analysis – October 21, 2023

Need to get thru topside resistance for they YEN and about 2-3% higher we have big resistance …

One of the best things I learned going thru the CMT process was the use of Ratio Analysis to look for relative strength.

If you’ve been following me you know I enjoy the ratio XLP (Staples) / NYA (NY Stock Exchange Index)

Here’s the theory:

In times of RISK ON (bullish) – the institutions rotate out of “safety” and into more riskier names. When the world gets crazy they need to go somewhere ..right? Go to toothpaste, toiler paper, soup, etc. STAPLES …

In times of RISK OFF (bearish) – the institutions rotate into “safety” and out of riskier names.

BULLISH – the ratio goes DOWN.

BEAIRSH – the ratio goes UP.

Now, in the midst of this continual bullish mania, where has this ratio gone? Nowhere … hmmmm.

Now, just 2.5-3% lower is a THE measured move that represents the biggest correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. We also have a .618 monthly price projection at that same level. This SHOULD act as support which SHOULD cause stocks to pullback. Pullback could be BIG.

Is this 2.5-3% lower stand alone … nope. What makes this VERY interesting is we have a 1.618 price projection from the all time low on the NYA … 2.5-3% higher.

We also need to watch the banks and financials … KRE, XLF and the Banking Index are all hitting BIG resistance.

NY Stock Exchange Index – September 22, 2024

The market relentlessly continues its push higher and higher and higher. Will this rocket ship ever run out of gas?

Folks,

have to admit, somewhat ‘surprised’ at the continued strength of the US equity indices.

the YEN ‘surprise’, the all time low square out on the NYA, the perfectly harmonic measured moves on the DJIA, etc. etc. etc. and the market just doesn’t seem to care.

so, we have ‘another’ major target on the NYA a little higher (about 4-6%) and that “SHOULD” cause resistance but …who knows.

XLP / NYA – November 21, 2023

Well, well, well … it’s fun when “stuff” comes together like this. Are we exploding to new highs or are we having the “mother of all bear market bounces” (for the record: I HAVE NO IDEA) over the past couple weeks?

Guess what?

Mr. Trust XLP/NYA has completed or is about to complete a “perfect” or “near perfect” (all that means is the ratios and projections are lining up – has nothing to do w/ the probability of it working or not – we NEVER know) BUY PATTERN.

So, now we just go to our trust “if – then” gameplan:

IF the BUY PATTERN HOLDS on the ratio THEN stocks should be reversing or reverse soon and continue DOWN….

IF the BUY PATTERN FAILS on the ration THEN stocks should continue to climb higher and take out the old all time highs as a real – distinct – possibility.

And, dare I say, EXPLODE higher?