Tag: gbpjpy

Where are we …

Patterns appearing all over the place …the only ones that count are the BANKS/FINANCIALS. They will lead us up and lead us down … bank on it … (get that?)

Let’s make this simple.

I’m watching a few things:

  • Banks/Financials – they always lead us UP and they always lead us DOWN. They are approaching major targets. BUT WAIT – the European Financials just BLEW THREW 2 projections and a retracement level. (see below) – are they going to vacuum the banks/financials in the US w/ them … if they do, we ain’t going down folks. HOWEVER, if the banks/financials start down, then you might think of getting VERY conservative. We’ll find out in a few days or so, I suspect.
  • XLP/NYA – held for now. That’s ‘bearish’ for stocks but if we lose that 13 year support line then these stocks could take off higher. DO NOT BE LONG THE STOCKS WHEN THE PATTERN COMPLETES LOWER ..for now, see what this important ratio does.
  • I’m also watching the strength in Junk Bonds – junk bonds go up – it’s game on folks and they have yet to break down.
  • At the end of this post, take note of the Japanese Yen … sure looks like it wants to get stronger and remember the last time THAT happened?

Last – might want to go load up on some coffee. Coffee futures are rolling thru a long term projection.

Bring on the Charts!

forgot to label, the chart below is Copper Futures

The YEN – October 13, 2024

The Yen hasn’t budged and crept a little higher towards the sell patterns. I imagine this week will be judgement day.

Last update on the Yen complex: The Yen – October 4, 2024.

Just over a week ago, I posted about the cautionary signals and multiple sell patterns forming in the Yen against the major currencies and a commodity-based currency (the Australian Dollar).

None of these patterns were triggered.

There’s a lack of momentum in the Yen market right now; typically, a trending market in the Spot FX space would have activated these patterns easily. Interesting development…

My point is, although we’re still climbing the wall of worry to reach new all-time highs in the equity markets, I think these Yen patterns against the majors need to fail. If they don’t, and the Yen strengthens across the board, it could become challenging for global equity markets to sustain their upward trajectory.”

And, here is the XLF and KBW Banking Index …

XLF is about to smack into MAJOR resistance. I’ve labeled em’ for your edification but the important one for me is the 4.236*AB = CD as that can usually signify the ‘end of a move’ as MSJ taught me. That has confluence w/ the 1.618 extension. Pay attention to that level …

KBW ‘popped’ from a triangle which usually (not a rule, just a nice to know of EWT) happens at the end of a 5th wave. A little higher is another projection/retracement level. This one isn’t a ‘no brainer’ but it has closed above the resistance which had held for a LONG time. Is it a trap? Guess we’ll have to wait and see …

NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) is about 3% from the next major target. No kidding, this is the biggest outlier for me as the 1×1 trendline from the all time low didn’t even cause a blip …

So there you have it. Yes, we very well could be exploding parabolically into new highs for the next couple of years. Yup … but, I’m not all in the boat, yet. Let’s smoke some YEN PATTERNS first and then, I’ll be a believer.

For now, I’m cautious.

The Yen – October 4, 2024

Here comes the Yen … its been VERY quiet over there so why not add a little volatility to the mix? SELL PATTERNS (Yen Strength) on the horizon.

Well, some weeks ago, the Yen is what cooked the entire thing off and don’t you think its time we add a little gas to the fire or are things hot enough? Well … guess what, PATTERNS again appearing across the board w/ the probability bet being YEN STRENGTH and the last time that occurred, we all knew what happened….

A picture paints a thousand words.

IF they “work” THEN the YEN strengthens and there might be some funds trapped again?

IF they “fail” THEN the YEN weakens and the band plays on and, frankly, we could be going parabolically higher. Which if your long is a GREAT ride, I have done it once in my life w/ Bitcoin and it was so HARD to cut the position at the top …but I did and for maybe one day I was like ” I need to get back in” but then it thumped down hard and I took my money out of bitcoin … like to chart it, but not trading that these days. Anyway, we could be going higher and a lot longer than people might think. GREAT … BUT … when it does crack, and it will, it will be a reckoning. I’d much rather have a good ole pullback are couple ‘scary the sky is falling CNBC measured move to BUY’ so, guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

Here comes Mr Yen.

One last thing – the ONLY PATTERN which is not a PERFECT SELL is the USD vs JPY. Go figure … it’s still popping up into big resistance but all the other cross pairs – near perfect SELL PATTERNS. Probability says, they ‘should’ work …

Perhaps, hang on folks …

Bart

the YEN – strength? – July 13, 2024

All the YEN crosses are approaching or have hit major resistance.

The Yen, across the board is hitting MAJOR LONG TERM TARGETS. While, ultimately, I believe the YEN will weaken more over the long run, the patterns are saying this YEN weakness should be hitting major resistance. Across the board – they are all hitting.