ain’t nobody LONG the Aussie vs USD .. perhaps you should think about it?
Posted on February 7, 2016 Leave a Comment
AUSSIE
- monster cycle hitting this month from 1986 on Aussie.
- take note of the “measured moves in price” coming tino the 1986 and 2001 low .. they are the same footprint
- very oversold w/ bullish divergence
GASOLINE FUTURES
- note, 5 waves down on natural gas
- .9438 symmetry
- 1.27 extension
- 1.27 wave 1 = wave 5
- monster bullish divergence …
XLP / $NYA need upper target to be hit AND a sign of accumulation …
Posted on February 6, 2016 Leave a Comment
- note – we are forming a “doji” candlestick pattern – “uncertainty” on a monthly basis, yet the higher target remains a little higher.
- broke out of two monthly trend lines and have paused
- RSI approaching extreme overbought levels of the 2008-2009 panic.
UNTIL WE HIT THE UPPER TARGET – FOR ME – we are in no mans land.
Now, let me draw your eye to the circled part of the chart. Note, all the BIG WICKS. It took 6 months for this to carve out a top which tells me that as the market was going down back in 2008-2009 the institutions started “accumulating” and then the market took off. Not sure what will happen this time, but, again, would remain defensive till this upper target is hit OR we get a monthly close (a monthly) back below BOTH the purple and red upper channel trend lines.
the next move in $TLT is “probably” DOWN …
Posted on February 1, 2016 Leave a Comment
folks, it’s ALL probability and as a pattern recognition trader that’s all you worry about. When a pattern appears it’s simply a probability it’s going to work OR not … that simple.
so, take a look at TLT …
- first note – we have a very clear 5 waves down. that’s either the beginning of the a trend OR a heads up that there is going to be at least another 5 wave move down (a C wave so to speak)
- if you do a search on this website you’ll find that we ‘called’ the BUY at 114 and we targeted 126 (while it was at 114) as the next target.
- since then we sold off but have found a pretty nice base at 118-119.
- this formed the blue triangle SELL pattern and it hit a little higher than 126 (by a buck) but is STILL in the realm of valid pattern parameters.
- also note, the TIME we went up AB is also equal to the TIME we went up in BC.
- SOMETHING SHOULD BE HAPPENING IN THE FIXED INCOME WORLD — SOON.
- now, if we blow thru this target then we’ll seek 131-133 and that is where the rubber will meet the road, so to speak….that’s an extremely harmonic (think music and square roots) pattern.
- the red arrows show what the PATTERNS are saying. if we blow thru the 131-133 level THEN it’s off to the races and the PATTERN failed. NOT US …
this has absolutely NOTHING to do w/ ANYTHING FUNDAMENTAL so please don’t email me telling me what it’s about or anything like that .. it’s a pattern folks, nothing more than that.
enjoy ….
B
$TSLA
Posted on February 1, 2016 1 Comment
so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.
as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.
in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.
and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level? 3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….
- pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME. Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
- this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.
watch this level closely.
as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
$PCLN update 2/1/16
Posted on February 1, 2016 Leave a Comment
02/01/2016
as you can see below, the light blue trend line below was taken out. now we are approaching major support as shown by the polarity principle. some bid thrust/candles going into this level so this will be a key test in the coming days/weeks. if we lose this level, then expect 1.27 level to be attacked in the high 800’s.
12/20/2015: update to PCLN.
one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.
one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.
so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below. also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points. I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.
this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.
anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.
Folks, this mirror image got smoked. Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.
Where are we now?
Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level. I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …
here’s the MONTHLY picture …
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
WMT – into the high 60’s?
Posted on January 30, 2016 3 Comments
1/30/2016 – WMT propelling higher. 68 or 72 potential targets, or quite frankly, new highs? too early to tell but it has been extremely bullish.
if you want to follow along – scroll down to the bottom where we show patterns into the HIGH and then use geometry and patterns to find the 55-56 area as support.
THERE IS ZERO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS IN LOOKING AT THESE SWING HIGH AND LOW TARGETS.
Bart
$WMT hit the support area and has been climbing. certainly appears the high 60’s could be in play? Please see below.
hope you had a great Festivus w/ family and friends.
spend some time working thru this post from the bottom up …
rock on, ok?
Bart
Just a heads up … were “there” or “close” w/ regards to potential WMT support.
Here’s the picture of $WMT in 2013 – sure looked, at the time, we were finishing 5 waves and the circle area was the target area for a “potential” top.
$WMT moving into the highs – Nov 2013
Target was hit and yesterday the move rally began. Hard to believe it’s roughly 2 years ago that this pattern was ID’d and it took that long for it to start to make the “news” so to speak. Anyway, now that the chaos and news is getting ahold of it, believe a look at a potential long swing trade in the mid to low 50’s is reasonable.
Here’s the daily chart … note the square root target of 56 lands right on the .382 retracement from the all time low. I like that … watch that 55-56 level.
Just another math thing … 90/1.618 = 56. Another reason to like the level.
Here’s the weekly 1/8th projection method …
55-56 sure seems like it’s key WHICH MEANS IF IT FAILS THEN WE GOT SOMETHING REALLY WRONG AT THE CIRCLE K.
B
my favorite ratio is still warning to stay defensive, for now ….
Posted on January 30, 2016 Leave a Comment
1/30/2016 – the market has rallied nicely off the most recent lows. HOWEVER, I’m getting into “correction over” or “bull trend resumes” until this target shown below (updated) is hit and then we get a weekly signal reversal candle. Take note – when the overall market is going UP this ratio should be going down. It isn’t … in my world, that means staples are still the play and that’s defensive. Stay tuned …
“defy human nature and do the work …”
Jim Twentyman
folks, the market is giving us a road map and, if we get our “heads out of the airplane” you can see it …
what’s the “best” road map, in my HUMBLED opinion? Ratio analysis using pattern recognition …the key w/ ratio analysis is it gives you the “big boys” road map.
XLP – staples. in times of “risk off” the institutions have to go somewhere, right? they go defensive – staples.
$NYA – a really really important index.
so, when the XLP starts to outperform on a relative basis, then the gig is up and the rotation is occurring.
here’s a more in depth blog about it: https://bartscharts.com/2015/06/27/revisiting-the-xlpspx-ratio-again-in-june-2015/
here’s the ratio, updated:
couple things:
- note the pattern a little higher (means more losses for stocks, OBTW). That’s a really really powerful SELL pattern which means Equities go up.
- note the pattern timed – almost exactly – EVERY high and low since 2000. I would suspect it would give us clues for longer periods BUT XLP inception was in 1998.
- note, at “market lows” there was a shit load of accumulation occurring or, in the case of the chart “distribution” at the highs.
- one last, as the market continued to breathe into the stratosphere one would think that the RATIO should have been falling out of the sky right? I mean it was so easy, so good BUT the market was telling you – right here on this chart that we were weak internally AND the big boys weren’t really playing were they? If they were full risk on then this ratio would be going down like it did 2002-2007. It didn’t .. in fact NOT ONE SWING LOW HAS BEEN BROKEN since 2007 ratio low. Think about that for a moment …
So, unless your a swing trader w/ a couple days holding period OR a day trader then I wouldn’t touch equities until this pattern completes.
hope this helps.
B
$ABX “should” give 13 bucks a try …
Posted on January 30, 2016 Leave a Comment
here’s a link to the $ABX work that has been done: https://bartscharts.com//?s=ABX
Bart
$FAZ … let’s get ready to rumble
Posted on January 25, 2016 Leave a Comment
Just did an update for Andy and the people over @seeitmarket on this post: http://www.seeitmarket.com/bank-stocks-near-make-break-point-2015-13986/ It was the first week of January 2015. Yep, over a year ago …
So, it appears the press still isn’t paying attention to them … $DB is getting smoked and looks like LEH before it went off the cliff.
check out this chart of $FAZ. It’s an inverse of the banking index and leveraged, big time. Also note in 2008 the price was 160,000.
so we have something very interesting occurring. we need to let the market come to us and show us what it wants to do … see the RSI? IF the banks are in trouble THEN the market will shift and attack the higher bullish rsi resistance zone around 80-90. If they are “ok” – for now – then we should find stiff resistance and the trend resumes. so, watch this closely because IF we go up and tag the upper zone, then we are in a “bull market” and the banks are going to get smoked …
stay tuned …
Loonie … an update
Posted on January 25, 2016 Leave a Comment
the loonie fell 700+ pips in 3 days. that’s a big move in the currency markets ..
so, where are we now .. appears we are in a rally that needs to get shorted (LOONIE strength)
here’s the charts I’m using …some really strong levels on the $OSX. not sure which one will be hit, yet.
Bart's Charts 