$HAL low risk BUY
Posted on February 19, 2016 Leave a Comment
MATH, nothing more nothing less
- measured move (blue arrows)
- .618 retrace from roughly the all time low at 1$/share
- WEEKLY cycle from 2008
- 3 drives to a bottom into .618 retracement
- bullish divergence
- wrong w/ daily close below recent lows
I do know that Dick Cheney had something to do with it …that’s all I know.
Bart
Kiwi and the tale of 6 ratio’s, polarity principle and 2 AB=CD’s – Bart’s Rule of Life for Pattern Recognition Traders #2
Posted on February 17, 2016 Leave a Comment
RULE OF LIFE #2: no matter what your system for entering the market (fundamental, technical, blend) make sure it’s the HOLY GRAIL. In that, it let’s you know where you are wrong 100% of the time.
2/17/2016 – folks, I try to be as transparent as I can on this blog. Let me reiterate – the PATTERNS DO FAIL. Is PATTERN RECOGNITION using sacred geometry, music, square roots and other math the HOLY GRAIL? YES, because they let you know EXACTLY where you are wrong. NOT, because you are “right” but letting you know when you are wrong.
you have to ask yourself “why” did the KIWI bounce right at the level we were able to derive – 100% mathematically? I took this trade and have made some money. that’s great … but the key is 1) I traded the plan and 2) knew exactly where I was wrong.
it has taken me a very LONG TIME to “try” to devoid myself of thinking every trade will work. In the book Outliers, author Malcolm Gladwell says that it takes roughly ten thousand hours of practice to achieve mastery in a field. Guess what – hate to admit it – I have 10,000 hours “mastering” PATTERNS but a fraction of that – until recently – has been about training my mind. In the end, 10,000 hours of chart work is overkill …
Some advice – figure out 1 simple thing that works for you in trading. Fundamental, Technical, a blend of both and prove to your self it works at least 50% of the time. Once done, STOP and do nothing else.
Now spend 9,999 hours training your mind to live in the world of probability .. chase away and bury self doubt, self criticism, hope, etc. and live in a state of grace, harmony and joy. THEN tackle the gorilla’s juggling dynamite in the cage – the market.
If you read this far, remind me to tell you about the 3.5 billion dollar (yes) lunch in the NYC … as my dear friend and mentor Larry said as he handed me the Certificate of Deposit – “Bart, that’s a lot of zeroes.”
Also, one last, thanks to Larry P for all his work w/ me and the friendship and mentorship on this journey … trust me, it ain’t an outcome.
Additionally, thanks to Bill M, you have taught me more than you know. I’m glad we disagree on pretty much everything in business. But do agree about God, Family, our Country, the Code w/ regard to wives and tequila.
Anyway, here’s the chart.
Bart
yes, please.
the ONLY reason YES is because I know where I’m wrong and can manage risk.
I’m RIGHT 100% of the time because I know where the PATTERN fails ….
NICE …
Bart
PS — could completely fail.
PS — watch Cotton and Milk for intermarket confirmations
Bart’s Rule of Life for Pattern Recognition Specialists …
Posted on February 16, 2016 Leave a Comment
Rule #1: Parabolic moves NEVER end well.
In learning pattern recognition thru geometry, music, sacred geometry and other “stuff” one of the things that always stuck out from the ancients who knew this stuff in a much more granular and spiritual way than we do now is that EVERYTHING need to be balanced … night/day, yin/yang, male/female, etc. etc. I mean, is it by chance that the EXACT measurements of the British Foot/Pound System, the exact dimensions of the radius of the earth and moon, Pi, the golden mean and blah blah blah are found in the Great Pyramid? Just one example …
No, it’s not a coincidence. So look at this post for more detail: https://bartscharts.com/2015/03/30/parabolic-moves-have-never-ended-well/
But the bottom line is parabolic blow off tops and parabolic crashes WILL need to counterbalance the EMOTIONS of the move. The emotions are manifested geometrically as parabolic blow offs and these emotions are manifested in vibrations and since they are emotional vibration energy they can be predicted by? Guess what .. math and geometry that we learned in 3rd grade. There I said it ….
so take $HRL. Wow what a move … I mean amazing BUT folks it’s gone parabolic and today it has the beginning of an island reversal which is VERY BEARISH.
So here’s a step by step process to “see” the geometry and make your gameplan accordingly. Yes, it could go another 5,10,15 percent BUT when it cracks it will crack hard to BALANCE the EXTREME BULLISHNESS EMOTION w/ a counter BEARISH MOVE. It’s that simple …
Bart
off she goes UP UP and AWAY
this is what a parabolic moves looks like on a long term LOG chart .. note the upper channel. Certainly appears to be a potential resistance point if today didn’t do it …
that’s a beauty …if was non-log. the above is what a parabolic move looks like and notice the RSI is the highest ever ….
Note the following charts are how you find the gravity center of what you are trading….
note here I used 2x ratio of the gravity center
using 2x the gravity center I now created the arc to “see” this move and then used ratios .886 (square root of 786), .9438 and 1.05946 equal octave scale of music to capture every point of support and resistance on the way up. We hit the upper arc and created and island reversal today. Perhaps that’s it? Perhaps not …
so here is the “island reversal” present on both the weekly and the daily time frames …if we close below 40 It could go to 20 very quickly.
Stay tuned …
Bart’s Pattern Recognition Rule #1 is PARABOLIC MOVES never end up good … this stock is parabolic. Caveat Emptor …
B
LET THIS SINK IN …
Posted on February 16, 2016 Leave a Comment
My good friend Larry Pesavento sent this over to me this AM …
Now, I know that Bernie Sanders, Shake Shack, Social Media and blah blah blah is all the rage but a chart like this will, one day, have to be reckoned with .. it’s as simple as that.
Do I know from a fundamental perspective what this means?
Haven’t got a clue … but here’s the bottom line, and let it sink in:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e0cb1c50-cee5-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html#axzz40LIPZzsz
Bart
Kiwi and the tale of 6 ratio’s, polarity principle and 2 AB=CD’s
Posted on February 16, 2016 Leave a Comment
yes, please.
the ONLY reason YES is because I know where I’m wrong and can manage risk.
I’m RIGHT 100% of the time because I know where the PATTERN fails ….
NICE …
Bart
PS — could completely fail.
PS — watch Cotton and Milk for intermarket confirmations
coming into tomorrow we are pretty much there….2/12/2016
Posted on February 11, 2016 2 Comments
note the $NYA chart below ….
- blue arrows represent the largest corrective move since 2009
- in the 2007-2008 financial panic this measured move held the market at bay for almost two months
- can you imagine the talking head pundits on CNBC BS’ing about that for two months … blah blah blah.
- we also see the dashed black arrows projection to the exact level as the measured move
- we have weekly bullish divergence present on the RSI
- plus, we are a couple ticks shy of the XLP / NYA ratio in an arena of overbought more than 2009.
so, if were going up … sure looks like it’s about time for that to happen.
here we go …
PATTERNS do FAIL ..
Posted on February 11, 2016 Leave a Comment
here’s the great thing about pattern recognition … you don’t make “great calls” or “fundamentalize anything” you just simply find a pattern and – sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t.
Crude – didn’t but remember, we did have that unopened gap below the pattern .. but it didn’t.
TSLA – didn’t and it took off running.
so as you continue to build your ability w/ in pattern recognmition – use a stop and realize that it is not YOU who failed but the PATTERN.
Keeps you in the game, mentally …something that is always a work in progress for me.
B
Bart's Charts 