Mastercard 5 waves up complete?
Posted on January 24, 2016 Leave a Comment
Mastercard – what a great business model. you swipe the card and they get paid ..nice.
that being said, sure looks like 5 waves complete w/ monster bearish divergence. note the blue median line. price has not closed below that on a monthly basis, if we do get that close, then this could accelerate to the downside.
also, thru some geometry on there … when using arcs, the 3 o’clock position is a time component and the top of the circle is price. see how the “time” component nailed the low? that gives you a heads up that the price (top of the circle) should be stiff resistance.
B
XLE ratio analysis worked well, this time
Posted on January 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
1/23/2016 – wanted to show these charts again. they are all ratio analysis of XLE (energy) versus the major components of the S&P. Ratio analysis w/ pattern recognition is very powerful.
all of these patterns hit, oil moved down to the 25-27 area, the OSX/NYA ratio worked and Oil popped and the Loonie got 500+ pips in two days.
not sure, honestly, if we have a trend change BUT it does appear that the energy sector has a trade worth bottom in place.
Bart
am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.
sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.
of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.
means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….
quite the set-up in $GILD
Posted on January 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
take a look at this one .. YES, it’s sure looking “heavy” and we do have the classic H+S pattern forming BUT …right below is a an amazing pattern.
no less than 6 rati0’s and an “AB=CD” projection … have to give it a shot.
USO hit 1.618 extension
Posted on January 23, 2016 Leave a Comment
also, note from the first impulse move down, you can draw all the trend lines w/ 45 degree angles. kind of cool …
1.618 extension target hit ….
classic Polarity …
Posted on January 22, 2016 Leave a Comment
Polarity: support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support. live it, learn it.
turn off the talking TV pundits, the endless Twitter feeds and defy human nature …
Posted on January 22, 2016 2 Comments
“defy human nature and do the work …”
Jim Twentyman
folks, the market is giving us a road map and, if we get our “heads out of the airplane” you can see it …
what’s the “best” road map, in my HUMBLED opinion? Ratio analysis using pattern recognition …the key w/ ratio analysis is it gives you the “big boys” road map.
XLP – staples. in times of “risk off” the institutions have to go somewhere, right? they go defensive – staples.
$NYA – a really really important index.
so, when the XLP starts to outperform on a relative basis, then the gig is up and the rotation is occurring.
here’s a more in depth blog about it: https://bartscharts.com/2015/06/27/revisiting-the-xlpspx-ratio-again-in-june-2015/
here’s the ratio, updated:
couple things:
- note the pattern a little higher (means more losses for stocks, OBTW). That’s a really really powerful SELL pattern which means Equities go up.
- note the pattern timed – almost exactly – EVERY high and low since 2000. I would suspect it would give us clues for longer periods BUT XLP inception was in 1998.
- note, at “market lows” there was a shit load of accumulation occurring or, in the case of the chart “distribution” at the highs.
- one last, as the market continued to breathe into the stratosphere one would think that the RATIO should have been falling out of the sky right? I mean it was so easy, so good BUT the market was telling you – right here on this chart that we were weak internally AND the big boys weren’t really playing were they? If they were full risk on then this ratio would be going down like it did 2002-2007. It didn’t .. in fact NOT ONE SWING LOW HAS BEEN BROKEN since 2007 ratio low. Think about that for a moment …
So, unless your a swing trader w/ a couple days holding period OR a day trader then I wouldn’t touch equities until this pattern completes.
hope this helps.
B
Loonie, time to get long …
Posted on January 22, 2016 Leave a Comment
I missed my entry at the .786. (was on travel)
That’s OK …what I’ll try to do is do a real time look at getting into the first retrace.
- Here’s the charts …
- Relative Strength of the $OSX / $NYA.
- note, the AB-CD is a little lower but believe we are in the zone for the PATTERN To be complete
- Crude
- on schedule, and look at the daily, almost perfectly on time
- USD vs LOONIE
- smacked exactly into the .786 and other ratio’s and has begun to strengthen …
- Relative Strength of the $OSX / $NYA.
Note: using intermarket and ratio analysis we were able to synchronize the “POTENTIAL” pivot in the Loonie, using Crude, relative strength of the OSX and then the patterns on the Loonie.
Stay tuned as this might get really interesting.
this entire thing is wrong w/ a daily closing above the .786.
I have my line in the sand, I like that.
B
yes, that was a 30 year trend line that has broken on the POUND vs USD!
Posted on January 17, 2016 Leave a Comment
I like the pattern going all the way down to the .886 at 1.3926
Bart's Charts 