coming into tomorrow we are pretty much there….2/12/2016
Posted on February 11, 2016 2 Comments
note the $NYA chart below ….
- blue arrows represent the largest corrective move since 2009
- in the 2007-2008 financial panic this measured move held the market at bay for almost two months
- can you imagine the talking head pundits on CNBC BS’ing about that for two months … blah blah blah.
- we also see the dashed black arrows projection to the exact level as the measured move
- we have weekly bullish divergence present on the RSI
- plus, we are a couple ticks shy of the XLP / NYA ratio in an arena of overbought more than 2009.
so, if were going up … sure looks like it’s about time for that to happen.
here we go …
PATTERNS do FAIL ..
Posted on February 11, 2016 Leave a Comment
here’s the great thing about pattern recognition … you don’t make “great calls” or “fundamentalize anything” you just simply find a pattern and – sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t.
Crude – didn’t but remember, we did have that unopened gap below the pattern .. but it didn’t.
TSLA – didn’t and it took off running.
so as you continue to build your ability w/ in pattern recognmition – use a stop and realize that it is not YOU who failed but the PATTERN.
Keeps you in the game, mentally …something that is always a work in progress for me.
B
Ripley’s Believe it or not …
Posted on February 10, 2016 Leave a Comment
“The third-quarter and nine-months revenues not only illustrate the balance Lehman Brothers has achieved among its equity, fixed income and investment banking businesses, but also show the financial and strategic potential of new businesses the firm has been building, including private equity and high-net-worth activities,” Richard Fuld, former CEO of the former LEH
“You can tell them that Deutsche Bank remains absolutely rock-solid, given our strong capital and risk position. On Monday, we took advantage of this strength to reassure the market of our capacity and commitment to pay coupons to investors who hold our Additional Tier 1 capital. This type of instrument has been the subject of recent market concern.” John Cryan, Co-CEO of Deutsche Bank
just a little higher till pattern completes .. and we surpassed 2009 lows for the RSI
Posted on February 9, 2016 2 Comments
was talking to a money manager at my son’s basketball practice tonight and he was talking all kind of nonsense about some fundamental stuff … I just pulled out my Iphone and showed him @bartscharts and said “here, read this.”
thus far, this ratio has been SPOT ON w/ providing market inflection points … its shows “risk on” and “risk off” flow of funds and in times of risk off the big guys go to shitter paper, toothpaste, canned goods and blah blah blah ….so, on this weekly chart, you’ll see a SELL PATTERN on the ratio which IF IT HOLDS is good for equities. personally, not doing a darn thing till that pattern is hit …
the probability that the ratio sells off (along w/ equities going higher) is increased due to the face that since the XLP came into existence, the RSI has never been this high …so, stay tuned but don’t go long equities till this pattern is hit …
B
ain’t nobody LONG the Aussie vs USD .. perhaps you should think about it?
Posted on February 7, 2016 Leave a Comment
AUSSIE
- monster cycle hitting this month from 1986 on Aussie.
- take note of the “measured moves in price” coming tino the 1986 and 2001 low .. they are the same footprint
- very oversold w/ bullish divergence
GASOLINE FUTURES
- note, 5 waves down on natural gas
- .9438 symmetry
- 1.27 extension
- 1.27 wave 1 = wave 5
- monster bullish divergence …
XLP / $NYA need upper target to be hit AND a sign of accumulation …
Posted on February 6, 2016 Leave a Comment
- note – we are forming a “doji” candlestick pattern – “uncertainty” on a monthly basis, yet the higher target remains a little higher.
- broke out of two monthly trend lines and have paused
- RSI approaching extreme overbought levels of the 2008-2009 panic.
UNTIL WE HIT THE UPPER TARGET – FOR ME – we are in no mans land.
Now, let me draw your eye to the circled part of the chart. Note, all the BIG WICKS. It took 6 months for this to carve out a top which tells me that as the market was going down back in 2008-2009 the institutions started “accumulating” and then the market took off. Not sure what will happen this time, but, again, would remain defensive till this upper target is hit OR we get a monthly close (a monthly) back below BOTH the purple and red upper channel trend lines.
the next move in $TLT is “probably” DOWN …
Posted on February 1, 2016 Leave a Comment
folks, it’s ALL probability and as a pattern recognition trader that’s all you worry about. When a pattern appears it’s simply a probability it’s going to work OR not … that simple.
so, take a look at TLT …
- first note – we have a very clear 5 waves down. that’s either the beginning of the a trend OR a heads up that there is going to be at least another 5 wave move down (a C wave so to speak)
- if you do a search on this website you’ll find that we ‘called’ the BUY at 114 and we targeted 126 (while it was at 114) as the next target.
- since then we sold off but have found a pretty nice base at 118-119.
- this formed the blue triangle SELL pattern and it hit a little higher than 126 (by a buck) but is STILL in the realm of valid pattern parameters.
- also note, the TIME we went up AB is also equal to the TIME we went up in BC.
- SOMETHING SHOULD BE HAPPENING IN THE FIXED INCOME WORLD — SOON.
- now, if we blow thru this target then we’ll seek 131-133 and that is where the rubber will meet the road, so to speak….that’s an extremely harmonic (think music and square roots) pattern.
- the red arrows show what the PATTERNS are saying. if we blow thru the 131-133 level THEN it’s off to the races and the PATTERN failed. NOT US …
this has absolutely NOTHING to do w/ ANYTHING FUNDAMENTAL so please don’t email me telling me what it’s about or anything like that .. it’s a pattern folks, nothing more than that.
enjoy ….
B
