the emotions are controlled but elevated and then you hear the “fights on, tapes on” and you know it’s time to get er’ done …
not often used, but very very effective, is the term “GATE” and that means FULL THROTTLE and MAX OUT on the direction of the threat to ENGAGE and KILL
“Cobra’s GATE Barber 180/15/35K/track 360/FAST
COBRA: that’s your call sign for the mission
GATE: full throttle get max knots!
Barber: that is a “code name” for the reference point
180/15/35k/track 360 FAST
a predetermined geographic point positions the threat 15 miles south at 35K flying north at 1.5 IMN ….
heads up, some body is ready to pick a fight ….
you are pushed back into your seat as the full thrust and energy propels your fighter and you feel the THRUST kick in and, guess what, you have 4 really really hungry fighters looking for a fight ….
unless you have been there, well, you just can’t imagine the POWER and ADRENALINE rush … it’s pretty amazing.
here’s the rub …
the more you do it, the more you realize how much you have to CONTROL the initial euphoria, intensity, aggressiveness and REMOVE emotion from the 4 fighters that are, literally, streaking thru the sky at 1.5 IMN to KILL.…
after many many hours of the above I am more concerned w/ watching the formation, the gas, the weapons, the weather, the threat and CONTINUOUSLY evaluate if you are winning or losing.
Fast forward to the YEN vs the DOLLAR ….
IF this analysis is correct THEN look at this BUY PATTERN for the $$$ vs the YEN…
“Cobra 11, GATE, BUY DOLLAR vs the JPY and ABORT if it gets below 96.80 and ride it ….”
PS — the pilot of that plane is the Godfather of my 3rd daughter …… get er’ done
“once you decide to deploy capital, in any market, realize that you are entering a cage w/ gorilla’s and OBTW they are juggling dynamite”
Joe Dinappoli (www.fibtrader.com)
STUDENT: Larry what is a good month of trading? (www.tradingtutor.com)
MENTOR: “looking at your P&L and seeing $.01 or 1 cent”
I deploy capital in one of the hardest markets in the world … the SPOT FX market.
I can only manage risk.
I have posted 3 prior “real time” blogs around trying to SHORT the Great British Pound vs the US Dollar and the wonderful pumpkin soup that I have eaten based on ANALYSIS … another true confession time, I have not deployed capital and have sustained ZERO losses since AUG 2013. Yes, I have not captured this pretty major move UP because I am dedicated to the short side so I am WAITING in CASH to deploy capital. Judge me or judge me not – the “look and feel” after spending 10,000 hours + on the charts – read the TIPPING POINT – has just let me allow the market to come to me and that is the beauty and the chain of a discretionary investor.
The above paragraph is the testimony to why I am blogging …perhaps someone will read this and 1) learn and 2) realize that the only thing we can control is the amount of losses we will sustain.
I am entrusted w/ other peoples capital and, quite frankly, I consider it the holy of holy’s. So, when the decision to deploy capital presents itself I simply ask myself “have I done everything I can to manage the risk…?” If YES deploy, if NO then don’t. See the chart below …
true confession time … some of you might know and some of you might not know that I spent my first 11 years out of college w/ the privilege and honor to serve in the United States Navy. I flew jets, saw the world and knew absolutely NOTHING about the economy. In fact, here’s the confession time, I have NEVER TAKEN AN ECON or BUSINESS COURSE in my life. I was a “mathematician” at the Naval Academy simply because 1) it wasn’t engineering, 2) I didn’t have to write papers, 3) I didn’t have to take a language and 4) there was no labs. Swear to my dying days that was my thought process … and, guess what, I graduated w/ a BS in Math (note irony of BS portion) AND w/ the rocking GPA of 2.08 in my major. 2.0 and go ….my Pops used to get on me (so to speak) and I always told him — “Pops, right now, a 2.6 is a 4.0 to me so PLEASE use that grading scale!”
why is this germane to this post, tonight? Well, I was taught/shown and devoured anything and everything that had to w/ charts because, well, I thought that is all there is ….
why is that germane … because I am long over trying to convince anyone that this stuff works. do the work, prove it to yourself or not but in the end it really doesn’t matter, does it? I firmly believe the market is musical and chart patterns that vibrate to the numbers which can be found in music. That’s my edge, take it or leave it …
so, tonight, when I heard the talking head pundits on a financial tv show start slobbering over the DJTA I thought “well, I haven’t looked at that puppy in a while so go take a look …”
- always start from the beginning (or w/ the best most historical data)
- the all time low was 10/29/1896 – interesting we are 8 days from 10/29 in 2013.
- from that point I went forward in time and looked to see if this was a good “node” and it certainly proved to be ….! (yeah math)
- from the 2000 top into the low in 2003 we have a PERFECT 50 percent retrace from that low of 49.59
- if we use the low at 49.59 and PROJECT from 1896-2000 we NAIL the MAJOR resistance in/around 5500 ish on the DJTA.
- from the high in 2007 to the 2009 low … .618 retracement (EXACT)
- finally, using the 1896-2007 leg and projecting UP we get a zone of 7500-7650.
when I started this study of the DJTA I did not know any of these numbers or projections or moves would be present. it does not surprise me at all, but do you really think as the market was crashing down in 2009 that EVERYONE knew the .618 retracement level from 10/29/1896 was at that 2100 level?
DJTA – please go up to the 7500 level ….
measured moves are powerful tools and on long term charts they are very useful for forecasting price moves. take a look at the chart below … the BLUE arrows are the lengths of the bull moves in the IWM. appears the current move will converge nicely in/around 113-114. Then, since we are all working w/ probabilities, what do you think the probability is that we find stiff/major/topping (?) resistance in around that area…? if that doesn’t stop it then watch 120-121 … either way we have the POTENTIAL for, at a minimum a 6th month correction?
last thing is some very easy time study … note the TIME it took for the first blue arrow to go up…now look at the TIME of this move that began at 34.
we have a convergence of PRICE and TIME in and around here … just saying.
counting waves is hard … you have to develop your eye and you have to figure out when to trust a count or just let it go and “hope” (a strategy) that the count will show itself. I particularly like counts on long term monthly type of charts. simply, all the noise is filtered out and you can get a good look/feel for the overall macro trend in place.
take a look at BIDU …from a counting perspective it’s simply a wonderful picture. just recently we took out that high of wave 3 so the minimum expectation has been met but there is some serious strength so perhaps we go up and tag the 180’s-200’s. here’s what I do know … that count is something Ray Charles could see! (nothing against Mr. Charles – his music and soul changed the world)
so caveat emptor w/ BIDU and isn’t interesting to see BIDU in the last stages of it’s count as the NASDAQ is going up and tagging the targets we are watching closely … things that make you go hmmmmm
classic or not that certainly proved to NOT be a head and shoulders neckline but a launching pad for a SATURN 5 and kaboom it exploded. as you can imagine the short well, took it on the chin to say the least: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05PKG_pWsVY !
Howard (Founder/CEO of Stocktwits) commented “as for me, I’ll stay long.” WELL PLAYED …
as for me, I’m licking the open chest wound and trying to put it all in context…
- that one day accelerated price action to such a degree that in one day it EXCEEDED the entire MONTHLY price action since GOOG’s IPO. Seriously…?
- the NASDAQ 100 has SO MANY parabolic charts it’s downright scary … have we not learned our lesson?
- the NASDAQ 100 continuous futures contract is right at major resistance / SELL pattern area
- Palladium has a very nice daily sell pattern about to complete (nice correlation in technology stocks and the palladium metal)
- our 925 level held for 6 months and then, kaboom, it exploded ..hugh?
- so, if at first you don’t excede, try try again (?)
- here’s my next set of targets w/ regard to GOOG
fixed income has bounced rather nicely and now the big question is “are we going to go to new highs?”
1.5 years ago, as fixed income flirted w/ the all time highs for 5 months we correctly saw multiple correlations that put the sell pattern present in context …
from there, the bonds fell pretty hard into the lows that were hit a couple months ago:
this happened BEFORE the infamous FED meeting last month and I held my stance that the Buy Bonds (Sell Yield) was the side of the trade to be on:
now, the question is will the bonds seek new highs suppressing yield to a great degree? there is a count that favors this action, but honestly, I don’t know ..just have to realize that the correction that has occurred in fixed income is almost precisely in line w/ the “normal” corrections that have occurred in the context of this 30 year BULL market. things are truly about to get very very interesting ….
Part 1 was a look around the world at different equity indices based on ETF’s:
of note is the Global Equity ETF (ACWI) and the SELL pattern that is appearing as we showed in our last “around the world” update shown below. Overall, nothing to crazy but the analysis appears to have been correct. Summary: NONE of the “around the world” indices have come even close to making new highs from the 2007-2008 time frame.
Part 2 was the banks and too big to fail:
The targets w/in the 21-22 area are approaching … the XLF is close to being a sell if not already one.
Part 3 took a look at technology:
Palladium has an extremely nice sell pattern and multiple patterns were hit or are about to hit …NASDAQ futures have an extremely strong target and sell pattern coming in right here, right now
Part IV was energy
this is the one sector that isn’t showing a clear SELL signal – yet. As you can see below w/ the XLE a case can be made for another 10% higher or it needs to start down now…energy could be the one sector that holds this puppy up for now.
and finally, part V was the look at ratio’s and sector rotation:
the pattern has completed perfectly and even w/ the S&P making new highs, this pattern has held …. this is bearish for the overall equity market.
ACWI, XLF, NAZZIE, SELL pattern complete/completing.
XLP/SPX ratio showing a beautiful BUY (SELL equities) pattern …
US DOLLAR low in here or perhaps a little lower
ENERGY needs to be watched like a hawk….
Do you really want to be long this market? The only way I would stay LONG is if all the above fails and, quite frankly, that could happen. So, watch ENERGY and DOLLAR strength for first clues.