WMT – into the high 60’s?
Posted on December 26, 2015 Leave a Comment
$WMT hit the support area and has been climbing. certainly appears the high 60’s could be in play? Please see below.
hope you had a great Festivus w/ family and friends.
spend some time working thru this post from the bottom up …
rock on, ok?
Bart
Just a heads up … were “there” or “close” w/ regards to potential WMT support.
Here’s the picture of $WMT in 2013 – sure looked, at the time, we were finishing 5 waves and the circle area was the target area for a “potential” top.
$WMT moving into the highs – Nov 2013
Target was hit and yesterday the move rally began. Hard to believe it’s roughly 2 years ago that this pattern was ID’d and it took that long for it to start to make the “news” so to speak. Anyway, now that the chaos and news is getting ahold of it, believe a look at a potential long swing trade in the mid to low 50’s is reasonable.
Here’s the daily chart … note the square root target of 56 lands right on the .382 retracement from the all time low. I like that … watch that 55-56 level.
Just another math thing … 90/1.618 = 56. Another reason to like the level.
Here’s the weekly 1/8th projection method …
55-56 sure seems like it’s key WHICH MEANS IF IT FAILS THEN WE GOT SOMETHING REALLY WRONG AT THE CIRCLE K.
B
long bond BUY pattern
Posted on December 23, 2015 Leave a Comment
patterns work and sometimes they don’t work.
nice BUY pattern on the long bond and the ETF TLT.
watch this one closely …
the Great British Pound and “the” line …
Posted on December 23, 2015 Leave a Comment
here’s a Monthly chart of the GBP vs USD since the float started in 1972. (Wish I had more data)
what I’m trying to “find” is the genesis of the LINE that caused the highlighted area of support .. it might be horizontal, or diagonal or vertical. I don’t know. So, am going to work real time and find the line ..
why? because this chart simply doesn’t look good, at all. and the last time I did this exercise, it was for crude oil. once the trend line broke, collapse. here’s the link: https://bartscharts.com/2014/05/22/where-did-that-crude-oil-support-trend-line-come-from/
here’s the chart:
so, it might be a couple minutes (you won’t know that) but just picture me w/ a triangle, a mouse and a protractor. cheers …
well that didn’t take long … no kidding, just looked at the chart, said “let’s start w/ the initial impulse move” and bam … there it was.
all we have to pay attention to is the first bold blue arrow coming down into the initial impulse move low from 1972 and the bold dashed purple line which is a simple 90 degree angle off that low. from there we drew our first red 45 degree angle and now we have the GEOMETRIC STRUCTURE OF THE POUND AND CAN DRAW ALL THE SQUARES NECESSARY TO CAPTURE THE MOVES. I know you don’t want to believe it … but just start from the all time high in 1972 and follow price action and you’ll see EVERY MAJOR TURN was at one of these trend lines.
now, how do we make money? note the area that is circled. that is PRESENT time and that’s all that matters … see the lower dashed purple line? If I were a betting man that likes to have probability in his favor (I am) then I would bet that the pound is going to go down and seek that line. IF we break below that line THEN we will have the first hint that the general HORIZONTAL support that has held since the 80’s is going to be tested. IF we break that … this puppy could collapse.
now, I realize this is a LONG TERM Pound chart but it’s telling us something ….in the chart below I want you to pay attention to two things:
- simply note the horizontal blue dashed line: that has held since 1986. I like to use open/closes for these type of horizontal support areas and you can see where the “wicks” tried to get below but were defeated. This is a big time horizontal line of support.
- RSI – thanks Connie Browne
- top dashed green line is RSI resistance zone in a BULL market, bottom green line is RSI support zone in a BULL market
- top red dashed line is RSI resistance zone in a BEAR market, bottom red line is RSI support zone in a BEAR market.
NOTE, IN 2009 WE BROKE BELOW THE RSI HORIZONTAL SUPPORT ZONE AND RALLIED UP TO THE BEAR MARKET RESISTANCE ZONE. THAT IS THE MARKET TELLING US THE POUND IS GOING TO TRY AND TAKE OUT THAT BLUE LINE …
It’s coming …. use this bounce to position accordingly.
Instead of doing the obligatory Happy Holidays so to not offend anyone, I’m going to say Happy Winter Solstice. That’s the reason behind the season anyway ….
Cheers!
Bart
KMI … bada bing bong boom
Posted on December 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
12/21/2015 – should get a strong rally now. target is TBD but if it’s corrective we’ll see 3 waves up. will watch …
funny isn’t it? no idea what they really do or WHY they were getting crushed and sold off big time … but do kind of know patterns. saw 14.21 as a potential pattern completing. this one appears to have worked. we’ll come back an visit in 14 days as price is time …
cheers. no idea if it’s going to work but it respected our level today.
the internet and social media is amazing. we are ALL connected …
we found each other thru health care and … he’s an avid trader.
so from time to time we meet on Skype and talk Health Care (hint hint – radical innovation is occurring) and the market. I’ve “seen” bits and pieces of KMI on my Twitter feed and everything but when someone like Joe asks me to check it out (He’s a “health care” guru) I take it seriously.
so, he’s also a budding PATTERN recognition trader (I’m bringing him away from the dark side of fundamentals (I jest)) and he asked me to break KMI down in what I SEE and not believe.
- it comes down to PROJECT (basic AB=CD suffices), EXTEND (extend retracements off IMPORTANT lows), RETRACE and IF/WHEN all the numbers come together you decide to take the investment opportunity OR not.
- throw a momentum oscillator on there – and if you have divergence in the direction of the pattern – it helps.
don’t know what the heck is going on w/ KMI but we do have some “music/math/geometry” coming into play …
PROJECT
AB=CD – the basics of measured moves.
EXTEND
find – to the best of your ability- the KEY highs/lows of a march either UP or DOWN. Your eye will train to it … but this “key low” is easy to see – EXTEND off that low using sacred geometry, music, Fibonacci. guess what, the numbers come in around 14. Note, where the 1.618 extension comes in … put your STOP, if trying to go long, below there
RETRACE
we can’t really retrace because we have blown thru the lows after the IPO.
Some recommend using “zero price”- which works- but I don’t think it’s necessary in this case. so let’s do some square root targets and you’ll find that 1.5 trips around the wheel is around 13.50 and you’ll also see with some basic TIME cycle analysis we are working on a 90 week cycle.
folks we hit that cycle this week …
so, as a PATTERN recognition investor:
- we have a bunch of math coming in around 13-14
- we have a time cycle coming THIS WEEK and have found support .. so, risk a 1 or 2 and go for it?
- what makes me “beg of caution” … STRAIGHT DOWN and when that happens patterns usually fail.
it’s all probability …but 13-14 looks “OK” to nibble on a long w/ a close stop? yes/no?
B
continuing to work a long Loonie potential- more
Posted on December 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
am looking at the relative strength of the XLE versus components of the S&P that make up more than 10% of the S&P.
sure looks like the RELATIVE STRENGTH of XLE is about to start outperforming the larger components of the S&P based on patterns.
of course, the patterns can always fail and the drift of the energy sector into oblivion continues .. patterns suggest a pause, bounce or strong up move coming.
means to keep on the lookout for that LOONIE buy ….
$PCLN update 12/20
Posted on December 20, 2015 Leave a Comment
12/20/2015: update to PCLN.
one can see that this has been an amazing rocket ship.
one can also see below that I was “seeing” a top coming in and tried the mirror image foldback, which from a price perspective DID NOT work. then, you can see that I was “seeing” a butterfly pattern and that missed the target area by a few bucks.
so, in summary, let’s watch the key low to high trend line shown in the chart below. also note the TIME symmetry around the foldback points. I missed that below, but that actually lends some credence to a potential big top.
this one has been tough .. but, then again, when you go from 3 dollars to 1450+ it’s going to take some time to digest.
anyway, for those who asked me, hope this helps w/ the gameplan for $PCLN.
Folks, this mirror image got smoked. Much like the mirror image for Natural Gas … the mirror images fail at the inflection points and $PCLN has rolled thru the pattern. ERASE … ERASE…ERASE.
Where are we now?
Well, if we look at the candles you’ll see the 2nd largest monthly candle since the IPO occurred last month (OCT) So, we have 1484 coming in but it sure looks like momentum and thrust will carry it to the 1600 level. I’m going to spend some time on this one over the next couple days …
here’s the MONTHLY picture …
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
continuing to work the LONG LOONIE opportunity …
Posted on December 19, 2015 Leave a Comment
folks, this one is setting up to be a doozie …
if you search my site for $OSX you’ll see we have been following this correlation w/ the LOONIE and USD for a while. What’s the OSX telling us? well, it sure looks to be bottoming – soon.
here ya go …
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since the beginning of the float and going all the way back to 1972, the USD vs LOONIE has completed two measured moves. The blue and the dashed purple arrows. they are almost the same but the purple is a little longer ….
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note, the measured move goes right up into the 1.27 extension and the .707 retrace.
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1.45-1.46 could also do it BUT that goes way beyond the last measured move.
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we should find resistance and pattern completing in/around here for this to work
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the OSX is highly correlated w/ the LOONIE vs USD.
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we are very close to a pattern completing that would lead us to BUY the OSX
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.786 retracement
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1.27 extension
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.618 ab=cd projection from all time high
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TIME – we are 89 months from the all time high
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TIME – some basic cycle work shows January as a potential low
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TIME – note, ALL of the IMPORTANT LOWS since 1974 have occurred in December
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bullish divergence which, for me, is a big deal on a Monthly
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the relative strength of one security to another is done by simply dividing them … if the NUMERATOR is “stronger” then the chart goes up and vice versa.
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the key w/ this ratio is the PERFECT SELL GARTLEY PATTERN which occurred right at the low of the USD vs LOONIE.
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now, we have
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measured move blue arrow coming in here to a little bit lower
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H+S projection (taking apex to neckline and projecting) lands right on the .786
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.786 retracement
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1.27 extension right on .786
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AB=CD (dashed purple arrow) a little lower
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bullish divergence
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THESIS: this is coming into a BUY zone which will cause the LOONIE to strengthen
Bart's Charts 