most important chart to end 2014 .. revisited in December 2015
Posted on December 9, 2015 Leave a Comment
Folks, pay attention here … I know I can’t make this my “most important chart of 2016” like I did last year for 2015 but the dollar is on the move again versus the Chinese Yuan.
this is a big deal folks …
I felt pretty strongly about this one back at the tip of the year. I still do … here’s what I know – FX is the name of the game. Again, you can watch, talk and also make a lot of money trading the $YELP, $GPRO, $GOOGL, $AAPL, etc of the world but the REAL market is the currency market … this past year we have had a very real race to debase. and, quite frankly, it ain’t good folks.
This move by the Chinese was 1) expected and 2) ranks up there as a very big deal … nothing to really watch now, believe they are committed to depreciating their currency also.
One has to ask .. why is the worlds second largest economy taking these measures? Well, of course it’s because all is well and the global economy is doing GREAT! Or, could it be a global sovereign debt crisis and a house of cards?
Folks, there is a major global move occurring in the biggest market in the world – the FX market.
Not only is the YEN,RUBBLE and EURO simply crashing the Chinese Yuan continues to weaken against the USD. This is a big deal and should be watched closely. We’ve been blogging about it for a while (https://bartscharts.com//?s=yuan )
Appears, for now, our pattern has worked and the $$$ has again started to rise …
New York Stock Exchange Index BUY patterns coming into play
Posted on December 9, 2015 Leave a Comment
I know the DJIA, S&P, Russell and all of that is important.
but, for me, to get a really good look at everything – I use the New York Stock Exchange Index.
why?
“The NYSE Composite is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange, including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings. Over 2,000 stocks are covered in the index, of which over 1,600 are from United States corporations and over 360 are foreign listings; however foreign companies are very prevalent among the largest companies in the index: of the 100 companies in the index having the largest market capitalization (and thus the largest impact on the index), more than half (55) are non-U.S. issues.[1] This includes corporations in each of the ten industries listed in the Industry Classification Benchmark. It uses free-float market cap weighting.”
It’s big and it just gives a good feel for the overall market.
It’s coming into a VERY key area of support shown below. IF YOUR A BULL THEN THIS IS THE AREA TO GET LONG (with a stop) and if the level fails then something is not right. Don’t try to rationalize it, have a plan. We’ve had an amazing 6 year bull run. And, as a PATTERN recognition swing trader, the rules state to BUY the first PATTERN that comes along. Well, since August, this is the “cleanest” buy PATTERN to come along.
Also, as readers of this blog you’ll realize that sometimes the patterns are PERFECT and SPOT ON. At other times, they slip thru some levels but ultimately continue on their way.
Where is the bull thesis wrong? Right now, those August lows are the key to this puppy continuing on ….
also, below is the XLP / $SPX ratio … it’s put in a series of higher lows (bullish ratio – bearish equities) and is banging, right now, up to a high-high trend line … WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
so … the selling that has occurred has been expected to simply finish the pattern. we are getting right into the areas where the patterns are completing.
watch these levels on the $NYA … if were going higher, they should hold. if not, well, hunker down for the time being and we’ll expand our time horizon and look bigger picture.
cheers
B
for my good friend Joe … $KMI
Posted on December 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
the internet and social media is amazing. we are ALL connected …
we found each other thru health care and … he’s an avid trader.
so from time to time we meet on Skype and talk Health Care (hint hint – radical innovation is occurring) and the market. I’ve “seen” bits and pieces of KMI on my Twitter feed and everything but when someone like Joe asks me to check it out (He’s a “health care” guru) I take it seriously.
so, he’s also a budding PATTERN recognition trader (I’m bringing him away from the dark side of fundamentals (I jest)) and he asked me to break KMI down in what I SEE and not believe.
- it comes down to PROJECT (basic AB=CD suffices), EXTEND (extend retracements off IMPORTANT lows), RETRACE and IF/WHEN all the numbers come together you decide to take the investment opportunity OR not.
- throw a momentum oscillator on there – and if you have divergence in the direction of the pattern – it helps.
don’t know what the heck is going on w/ KMI but we do have some “music/math/geometry” coming into play …
PROJECT
AB=CD – the basics of measured moves.
EXTEND
find – to the best of your ability- the KEY highs/lows of a march either UP or DOWN. Your eye will train to it … but this “key low” is easy to see – EXTEND off that low using sacred geometry, music, Fibonacci. guess what, the numbers come in around 14. Note, where the 1.618 extension comes in … put your STOP, if trying to go long, below there
RETRACE
we can’t really retrace because we have blown thru the lows after the IPO.
Some recommend using “zero price”- which works- but I don’t think it’s necessary in this case. so let’s do some square root targets and you’ll find that 1.5 trips around the wheel is around 13.50 and you’ll also see with some basic TIME cycle analysis we are working on a 90 week cycle.
folks we hit that cycle this week …
so, as a PATTERN recognition investor:
- we have a bunch of math coming in around 13-14
- we have a time cycle coming THIS WEEK and have found support .. so, risk a 1 or 2 and go for it?
- what makes me “beg of caution” … STRAIGHT DOWN and when that happens patterns usually fail.
it’s all probability …but 13-14 looks “OK” to nibble on a long w/ a close stop? yes/no?
B
YIKES – mea culpe
Posted on December 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
here’s the UPDATED Loonie chart … nothing has really changed.
we have the bearish divergence BUT not being in LOG form the targets have opened up.
so, would work the targets w/in the Oil complex that I have blogged about to get LONG LOONIE. Have highlighted potential levels .. will update later in the week as this has the potential to be a good one.
M Y B US T ….
cheers ..
YIKES – I made a “rookie” mistake –
Posted on December 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
folks, mea culpe on the LOONIE chart from this AM. I did the entire monthly work on the LOG SCALE.
I was looking to short the USD vs LOONIE in around/here but it just wasn’t computing. I firmly believe in intermarket TA and w/ the OSX and Crude getting crushed this just didn’t make sense? How could all these measured moves and numbers be coming together IF I didn’t have the same patterns coming w/ the oil complex. T I L T …
I have VERY powerful targets on crude in/around 25-27 and they correspond to the OSX lower so … I made a mistake and was wrong.
Will update the Loonie tonight … don’t short around here.
Mea Culpe …
Bart
Yikes … look at this set up.
Posted on December 7, 2015 Leave a Comment
It’s ONLY probability ….but look at this set up coming in the USD vs LOONIE (Canadian Dollar)
It’s a pretty wide window, but we have a TON of “stuff” coming into play …
This will have big ramifications for the Oil Complex.
What do we have?
- Measured Moves
- blue vertical line is the LARGEST move UP in the history of this currency since 1971
- dashed purple line is a measured move prior to the high at 1.618 (yes that was the high)
- dashed orange line is the “last” measured move up before the high
- .618 retracement from the all time high
- AB=CD from the all time low
- MONTHLY bearish divergence
Here’s the weekly:
What do we have?
- a well defined macro 5 wave count
- 1= 5 (red arrows)
- 3 to 4 =- 1.618-1.7632 extension into target zone
- WEEKLY bearish divergence
Here’s the daily:
What do we have?
- 5 wave daily count up into target zone
- (1) = (5) (dashed black lines)
- bearish divergence
so, all this means is IF this level fails to the upside you can expect the Crude Oil Complex to fail big and the Loonie to get smoked.
we’ve got some nice thrust into the target zone so let’s see what happens.
HOWEVER, if this level holds we might have a pretty big set up going LONG LOONIE in the coming days.
B
USD vs CHF (Swissy)
Posted on December 5, 2015 Leave a Comment
Long Term Monthly Log:
- note, it has not “officially” broken out (USD) versus the Swissy from the 1971 high
- note, the chart below is a LOG chart
- we also have resistance from 2005
- RSI – in a bear market, the RSI will oscillate around 20-30 and 55-65. Those levels are shown in red below.
- Besides a brief pop above the zone, in 1985, this market has contained and respected the “bear market” zones.
- however, pay attention to the support that was found in/around 2014-2015? that MONSTER MOVE down respected the BULL MARKET support zone. (Green)
- SO, IN CONCLUSION, we are at a pivotal time for USD vs CHF.
- we’ve tested, twice, the upper bear market resistance zones.
- if it breaks thru, then, more than likely, it will seek the green resistance above.
USD vs CHF – weekly
- pretty big candle going down, but as a USD bull, I’m going to look at taking a crack around the .382.
folks, this one is going to be interesting …
Bart
Soybeans
Posted on December 5, 2015 Leave a Comment
Soybean update.
the target was lower than originally planned but it appears the node from August 1970 is holding.
I expect up from here.
Bart
Key level on Fed Fund futures destroyed today @seeitmarket
Posted on December 3, 2015 Leave a Comment
take notice of this one folks … been blogging about it a bunch here for a while. THE KEY LEVEL was smoked today. the probability of a generational low in interest rates just went up. let’s not get to crazy – yet. we have next week FOMC decision to deal w/ and then we’ll see where the big guys are positioning themselves.
however, today’s damage was pretty big and historic: http://www.seeitmarket.com/fed-funds-futures-smash-through-support-chart-15044/
here’s a link to the fed fund futures blogged about in the past:
- https://bartscharts.com/2015/09/05/rates/
- https://bartscharts.com/2015/11/09/interest-rates-playing-w-the-gang-over-seeitmarket/
- https://bartscharts.com/2015/08/10/is-it-live-or-is-it-memorex-what-is-going-on-w-fixed-income/
- https://bartscharts.com/2014/02/08/fixed-income-pattern-and-october-1987/
if you go thru these posts you’ll see how the important support zone had been holding and, today, it gave away.
happy reading and let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
Gold, an update
Posted on November 28, 2015 Leave a Comment
CONCLUSION: the 3 waves to a new low did NOT turn out to be a “B” wave w/ a big C UP to come. However, I’m still seeing Gold carving out a bottom HERE or a little lower in the coming days/weeks. charts to follow …
the C wave that did not come did show a continual 3 wave structure making new lows … that fits the scenario of an ending diagonal which is 5 waves in nature but each leg is 3 waves. that’s what appears to be happening as of the close today.
SPOT GOLD MONTHLY:
- note the blue shaded area to the bottom left of the chart
- that shows the fixed price back in 1913 at 20.67.
- That 20.67 “node” was the reason for the bounce at/around 1200 ending wave 3. a 50% retrace of the entire run in gold lies a little low 970. also, note the RSI.
- It’s the lowest it’s been in 14 years and as PRICE makes new lows, the RSI is holding it’s levels. that’s bullish divergence. it certainly could break that shelf and blow off to the bottom but, again, we have “nice” support in/around 947-970
- also, note the the thinner blue rectangle areas w/ resistance and support noted – polarity. the resistance held for 17 months.
SPOT GOLD WEEKLY
- put the count on that makes the most sense. the BIG caveat to this count was/ is the top at 1920 a 3 or a 5…. really doesn’t matter that much because we are on the right side of the move but it does and will have big picture ramifications. either way, I feel confident that a 5 wave move lower is about to end.
- one of the very powerful price projection target techniques is that of the fundamental frequency. we have that in the upper left corner below. You can see that the 1st FF Tgt was 1287 and that was responsible for the “shucking and jiving” we had at that level before finally breaking. the triangle formed using that level as the center . pretty cool hugh? the next target, that was hit today was 1053
- note, I used 1572 NOT the lower “wick target” at 1 because of the open/closes around that level. so, 1053 might be off a little but I used what i was SEEING for that target.
- one last, to balance and harmonize a move a lot of times wave 1 will equal wave 5 since 3 was so extended and powerful. Those orange arrows come right into the 946-970 level.
SPOT GOLD DAILY
I kept all of the work on the chart so you can work your way down from Monthly, Weekly to daily.
- pay attention to the wave that begins w/ the dashed purple (yellow shaded box) that says “start here”
- note the orange line – that is the representation of Wave 1 = Wave 5 and take us down to the 956 level.
- we appear to be carving out (Turkey reference) an ending diagonal. see page 36 of EWP.
- this is the same formation that we discussed about Coffee here: http://www.seeitmarket.com/coffee-futures-update-trading-price-targets-and-time-frames-14978/
- BUT AGAIN, the triangle 4 is a classic PATTERN so were in the 5th wave lower.
for now, pay attention to 1044-1053 and then 940-970.
one last chart …
- the entire “wave” structure that occurs is based on the initial impulse move.
- in this case, the blue arrow from the top at 1920 is the “rock that hits the water” and starts all of the waves.
- from there, we simply PROJECT the arcs outward using sacred geometry, musical notes, fibonacci, etc. and what we do is actually LOOK TO THE LEFT ON THE WAY UP.
- It’s basically “musical polarity” in that where the arcs caused support and resistance in the past should be areas of resistance and support in the future.
- also, the arcs usually have “measured moves” associated w/ them and at times the are the exact same move that occurred in the past happens in the future. shown below you’ll see another blue arrow that is associated w/ the 3rd expansion of the initial impulse.
- note the orange ellipses. those are area of support and resistance that the arcs caught on the way up and on the way down.
- can you trade off of this information? sometimes yes, but, what’s most important, is you can use the past to ascertain the rhythm and flow of the move.
cheers … Bart
Bart's Charts 