Interest Rates … playing w/ the gang over @seeitmarket
Posted on November 9, 2015 1 Comment
Post on Fed Fund Futures from this weekend … interesting and important:
B
keep an eye on this PATTERN
Posted on November 9, 2015 Leave a Comment
to reiterate, the key w/ patterns is the fact they give you a line in the sand to make determinations of trends, possible inflection points and overall strength/weakness of the market.
in this case, we have the $NYA (the largest index) doing the EXACT same thing it did in 2008. so, I like to keep it simple – IF the pattern works again THEN we should see weakness and IF it fails (breaks out to the upside) we have a ways to go. Here’s the pattern …
cheers!
Bart
Technician’s Toolbox: Measured Moves …
Posted on November 8, 2015 Leave a Comment
Measured moves are 1) the easiest and 2) one of the most important techniques in the technicians toolbox.
They represent the “sum” of buyers and sellers and – on long term charts – extremely accurate at marking inflections points and risk controlled entry points. Let’s face it, besides the retail portion (me and you) are going to enter and exit all the time. But the big institutional money, they move the market. And, they leave footprints … measured moves.
I don’t like to go back in time and the do the “could of would of should of” but I just want to show some charts w/ measured moves …
Take a peak at the KIWI vs USD:
if you note the blue arrow you’ll see that this stopped the market EXACTLY in 2009 … there was no retracement (typical that is) or anything like that … go to the longest charts possible and you’ll find these measured moves. USE THEM … also note, the blue arrow has harmonic components to the crash from 1972-1985. 1.732 (square root of 3) and 2x blue arrow nailed the measured moves down … almost perfectly.
here’s one more – the dollar index. (hint hint, check this one out)
EVERY MOVE SINCE THE 2008 LOW HAS BEEN A MEASURED MOVE REPLICA ….
so, hopefully I have your attention. do yourself a favor, before you put on indicator chaos (I used to also) clear the chart of all indicators and just look at price and time. find these key measured moves and either jot them down or annotate them on your chart and THEN put the indicators that you use back on the chart. you’ll be glad you did ….
that brings us to the Australian Dollar.
Usually, when you have a measured move lying on a FIB and Square of Nine target it’s awesome. Not such thing for the Aussie and if you’ve been following my blog you’ll see I was looking to LONG AUD vs USD. Why? Here’s the chart:
We had a .618/.786 overlap w/ in 50+ pips, a very powerful measured move (blue arrow) and a low to high trend line all coming in … the darn thing hasn’t budged and, in fact, it’s closed for 3 months below the .618 retracement from the all time low. W E A K … no pattern to BUY ever appeared but a sell pattern did and I missed it .. I was too bias about trying to get long. Ugh. Anyway, when something like this doesn’t cause a BIG MOVE then the market is fundamentally really weak. So what should we do? Well, break out the measured moves and doing some basic time work …
Here’s the time work .. note it looks like we have a cycle low coming in March 2016:
what’s could the price be? Well, I think it’s going to be a measured move …
so, back to the drawing board .. this one is going to be interesting. Also, note what this means for oil, natural gas, gasoline futures, etc.
Bart
Meanwhile ….China, DB, Junk Bonds
Posted on November 8, 2015 Leave a Comment
GoPro
Shake Shack
Yahoo
hate to say it …but, um, who cares?
There are some MONSTER currency moves going on right now … watching China like a hawk. Is is starting down again against the USD?
Pay attention to this, THEN look at the “other” stuff …
DB – largest holder of derivatives “alive” for now …nice 5 waves down into the .786. Expect a rally into high 20’s then back down again …?
JNK … nice bounce from the 35 pattern. hit .786 of last swing and starting back down … hmmm? all good, all quiet on the Western Front, nothing to see here folks move along? Watch this one – closely.
USD vs JPY at a key PATTERN level
Posted on November 8, 2015 Leave a Comment
IF the USD vs JPY blows thru this PATTERN (sell) THEN the equity market continues higher … IF the PATTERN works THEN expect weakness and/or general churning for the equity market in the coming weeks.
would like to see an up move into the 123.30-123.50 level and then sell off. Right now, stops will be right above 124.25. Above there, pattern is null and void.
GOLD – bullish watch 1075-1076
Posted on November 6, 2015 Leave a Comment
OK, don’t shoot me … but I’m going to continue w/ the 3 waves down into a new low is in face a “B” wave and therefore the current move is wave 2 of C. AS LONG AS THE LOW of 1073 holds then this scenario is in play …
also note, in an expanded flat, 1.618*a = c is right on the 1.27 extension and ABOVE 1073.
So, 1075-1076 is the KEY level.
$FB post earnings ..
Posted on November 5, 2015 Leave a Comment
Here’s the chart that I quickly uploaded to StockTwits from my e-signal feed BEFORE $FB announced earnings. (by the way, Howard, AWESOME functionality .. so easy to use and to do. NICE)
now, I know I’m going to get tons of hate mail tonight … look, I get that they had an AMAZING earnings release. but, work w/ me, I understand none of that … honestly, I really don’t understand it. I’ve work my way thru the market as pure play pattern recognition dude. sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong BUT ALWAYS know where the pattern has failed.
you can see the PATTERN called for $FB to tag 108-110. Guess what? It did! And?
- ab=cd in price and time (this is a sell pattern)
- butterfly sell pattern (this is bearish)
- potential island reversal (this is bearish)
- shooting star daily candle formation (this is bearish)
now for the IF-THEN .. IF we break (daily close below 104 THEN this could be a big top for $FB.
CONCLUSION: sell patterns are complete. IF FB continues higher w/ thrust and momentum then it is extremely BULLISH. But, if we start selling off … then might look to take some profits based on your risk tolerance.
OK, I just ducked at all of the hate objects that were thrown my way … calling it like I SEE it and not believe it ….
cheers!
Bart
FB before earnings …
FB post earnings … sell patterns are complete.
when the big boys eat soup volatility rises …. BOINK
Posted on November 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
11/4 – BOINK. target hit …
support here means “institutions” are getting conservative. Hmmmmm, something to watch. Here’s the comparison w/ the $NYA. Note how they are INVERSE. When the blue line ($NYA) is going UP the ratio goes down and when the ratio goes UP the $NYA goes down. We’ve hit big time support on the ratio … again, I expect a pullback/churn from these levels.
October 18 2015: note, the CPB/NYA ratio has been straight down but it running into potential support a little lower. The thesis is during times of “risk off” institutions roll into the staples and stuff like toilet paper, toothpaste, food, soup, etc. has stronger relative strength. Keep an eye on this next week as support for the ratio “should” work it’s way into more volatility and be bearish for the overall equity picture.
Below the two dashed lines is a post that I did 2 years ago – almost to the day. Pretty amazing …some would call it synchronistic. I’ll just leave it at that …
Personally, I enjoy my Saturday and Sunday morning’s w/ a cup of coffee. Nothing going on, put a little Pandora on the headset and just “chill” and enjoy the amazing fall weather in VA. Little Bird said – “hey Bart, how about CPB soup?” So I took a look and – BAM – I was surprised.
If you go all the way back 2 years ago you’ll see that we had a nice pattern forming and it hit – to a tee at 48.
The market pulled back about 10 bucks and then started to march back up … a slow grind but it did go up.
As you can see above 52 and it was considered a failed pattern.
This week we went up and touched that level and, while I can see a 5 wave count up into this area and seeing an a-b-c type of correction what REALLY made me go hmmm is, of course the relative strength of CPB compared to the NYA. Why? STAPLES BABY …. a couple posts ago I mentioned we should be watching the XLP / $SPX for strength to signal more market weakness. Soup is a staple – period.
So, couple things of note:
- CPB is strong compared to the overall market.
- It has closed, on a weekly basis, the trend channel defined by the blue dashed line.
- there is a 5 wave count into the 52 area so warrant caution here if going to play on the long side.
- the short side is also a play, but would wait for the 48 level to be broken to the downside on a weekly close.
here’s what really has me interested in the RELATIVE STRENGTH OF CPB vs NYA
Points of Interest
- from the 1980’s CPB “outperformed” (the ratio went up) the overall market.
- the ratio TOPPED in 1997. the overall market didn’t top until 2000.
- but when the market did, eventually, top, the relative strength of CPB / NYA bottomed exactly the same time
- think about it for a moment .. the ratio CRASHED going into the top in 2000. Folks, that’s irrational exuberance. throw caution to the wind and get in, get in, get in and then ….ouch.
- while not as dramatic, the same thing occurred in the 2007-2009 period.
- the ratio bottomed as the market topped.
- presently, we do have some strength taking off and we have closed above the black dashed trend line.
- is that a signal that a strong move in the ratio is coming? Potentially, so monitor closely and do not be lulled to sleep. Strength in this ratio is not good for the overall health of the equity market.
one last folks … let’s not try to “fundamentalize” this last chart. that’s for the really smart people .. but take a look at the CPB/NYA ratio and the VIX. It’s a near perfect match.
When the institutions start eating soup … expect volatility to rise.
swings on this puppy have been extremely nice ….charts below.
just follow the bouncing ball …
nice BUY pattern emerged at level forecast …
long term pattern came into play. good pattern/good defined risk …
level being hit ….
note, now we have completed the equality of swings and the level held at/around 41.
watch the lower level on CPB … if we break it, selling could really come in ….
Parabolic Velocity ….and $MO an update ….
Posted on November 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
11/4 – update. again, I don’t even know what the Altria Group Inc. does … but I do know that parabolic velocity can only hit a certain Ps=0. What the hell does that mean? Well it’s the VN diagram when fighting a high performance fighter. You see at ANY given time in a fight you have a certain airspeed, altitude and G that will give you a turn radius and turn rate. In order to NOT give up energy you wanted your sustained rate of turn/radius to stay constant …. if your going to rip the g’s on and get a really powerful turn RADIUS going then your going to give up energy…. so you better be right OR your going to have to UNLOAD and get energy back and that will make you arc like an albatross. Get it .. Ps=0 might not be the best turn rate or radius but you know that your not giving up any ENERGY.
MO … tons and tons of VELOCITY but guess what? to get that HIGH of a price and go parabolic “it” had to be all in and a certain point you ain’t got “no moe thrust” and it stops and falls.
is this the top? I have no idea, but having been in many many 2 circle and 1 circle fights you learn to SEE how your enemy is doing/reacting and this puppy ($MO) gave it ALL. It’s time to UNLOAD (go down) and get some more knots (ENERGY) up to make another run …
watching this one, a move down into high 40’s not out of the question …
first stop SHOULD BE the top of that read trend line …
Bart
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
Bart
Bart's Charts 