fixed income has bounced rather nicely and now the big question is “are we going to go to new highs?”
1.5 years ago, as fixed income flirted w/ the all time highs for 5 months we correctly saw multiple correlations that put the sell pattern present in context …
from there, the bonds fell pretty hard into the lows that were hit a couple months ago:
this happened BEFORE the infamous FED meeting last month and I held my stance that the Buy Bonds (Sell Yield) was the side of the trade to be on:
now, the question is will the bonds seek new highs suppressing yield to a great degree? there is a count that favors this action, but honestly, I don’t know ..just have to realize that the correction that has occurred in fixed income is almost precisely in line w/ the “normal” corrections that have occurred in the context of this 30 year BULL market. things are truly about to get very very interesting ….
Part 1 was a look around the world at different equity indices based on ETF’s:
of note is the Global Equity ETF (ACWI) and the SELL pattern that is appearing as we showed in our last “around the world” update shown below. Overall, nothing to crazy but the analysis appears to have been correct. Summary: NONE of the “around the world” indices have come even close to making new highs from the 2007-2008 time frame.
Part 2 was the banks and too big to fail:
The targets w/in the 21-22 area are approaching … the XLF is close to being a sell if not already one.
Part 3 took a look at technology:
Palladium has an extremely nice sell pattern and multiple patterns were hit or are about to hit …NASDAQ futures have an extremely strong target and sell pattern coming in right here, right now
Part IV was energy
this is the one sector that isn’t showing a clear SELL signal – yet. As you can see below w/ the XLE a case can be made for another 10% higher or it needs to start down now…energy could be the one sector that holds this puppy up for now.
and finally, part V was the look at ratio’s and sector rotation:
the pattern has completed perfectly and even w/ the S&P making new highs, this pattern has held …. this is bearish for the overall equity market.
ACWI, XLF, NAZZIE, SELL pattern complete/completing.
XLP/SPX ratio showing a beautiful BUY (SELL equities) pattern …
US DOLLAR low in here or perhaps a little lower
ENERGY needs to be watched like a hawk….
Do you really want to be long this market? The only way I would stay LONG is if all the above fails and, quite frankly, that could happen. So, watch ENERGY and DOLLAR strength for first clues.
a couple days ago I posted about the US Dollar missing my lower target and the potentiality of a bottom and even saw a “nice” inverse head and shoulders that IF it broke thru would be a bullish signal. it didn’t and, now, looks like my lower target is going to be attacked. quite frankly, I’m glad … for over 2.5 months i have steadfastly WAITED and deployed NO CAPITAL. Always, thinking, “I missed it” or “why the heck did it do that” or any number of ugly “little voices” that appear. my mentors have banged into my thick head to ONLY invest at PRECISE levels because then and only then can we manage the risk. I’ve taken that to the extreme and, quite frankly, it’s my Achilles’s heal from an PM perspective. making no apologies. I think the tendency to try and “nats ass” levels is based on the HOURS upon HOURS that I spent in the Navy precisely aligning attack vectors for putting a 2000 lb pound in the center of a window from 35,000 ft at 1.2 IMN. old habits are hard to break ….
the other reason is because of a chart like below:
if you take the time to STUDY the chart (and why not if your reading my post – thanks by the way) you’ll see the EXACT, again, EXACT measured moves at the low in 1992-1995 hit. so, in the context of WAITING 2.5 months for this opportunity to present itself, it’s really nothing in the context of 3 years. YES, there is and was a lot of money to be made day in and day out trading the swings. but you know what … I don’t like doing that. it doesn’t fit MY STYLE so I like to put the pieces of the puzzle together and deploy capital. So, this AM, let’s take a look at the pattern coming in on the US DOLLAR INDEX.
my first post was almost two months ago and it concerned the US Dollar: http://bartscharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/august-20-2013-us-dollar.png and then it was updated: http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/01/dollar-index-done-or-correcting-or-a-little-lower/
we probed the lower level but never quite reached my area that I had been watching for two months as the place to attempt the long on the USD versus either the EURO or the POUND. this am, it is showing some pretty significant strength so this is in alignment w/ my analysis. now put the investment hat on and look for the best area to get long that will manage the risk. with the chaos in DC, this target a little lower could get hit on some surge/spike/rumor/ etc…we’ll just have to wait and see. lastly, look at the 4 hour inverse head and shoulders neckline that is being attacked. Sure looks like the dollar has bottomed …
this is BARTS CHARTS … if they go UP we have more buyers and if they go DOWN we have more sellers. Playing relaxing music and watching the chart instead of listening to the talking head pundits is just easier, don’t you think?
t easier, isn’t it?
here’s the previous Gold/Silver Index posts:
so, as you can see the geometry is sure starting to unfold for a “double bottom” type of scenario and then, potentially, higher. If you read my Gold posts
then you’ll see how I’m looking for one more move lower on the Gold to set up a very nice buying opportunity. you’ll also see the reason why the levels approaching on the Gold/Silver Index are so key. Stay tuned on the Gold/Silver index because the level it found support in is KEY .. if we break that to the downside via a daily close below that level, then the index and Gold could certainly take a smash. stay tuned …
I have been following this pattern closely … after an amazing move upward, we have been consolidating in what looks like a multi-month triangle. From a counting perspective it does fit the characteristics of a 4th wave so we’ll have to watch it closely for signs of the triangle being complete. At this point, right now, I don’t know. The symmetry of the ratio’s of the legs is “close” to the rules (they are supposed to be .618 of each leg) and the most latest low of yesterday finished a very nice buy pattern. For now I will sit on my hands … but the move is coming for weakness of the JPY versus the USD.
if you wan to catch up I recommend reading the following two posts:
this AM, our pattern that we have been following has completed. what does that mean? the pattern either works or it doesn’t … if it works then our thesis is that the staples (as a sector of the overall market) will start to outperform on a relative strength basis (no not the oscillator) the general market. when this has occurred in the past, it has very nicely timed inflections points to the down side in the market ….
stay tuned … the symmetry of the BUY pattern in PRICE and TIME is very powerful that this level should hold.
ratio analysis compares the relative strength of one security versus another. if the numerator is stronger then the ratio will go up and vice versa. what I try to look for are meaningful ratio’s that plot fear and greed and can warn us of potential inflection points in the market.
I am going to make an assumption that “everyone” loves Walmart ($WMT) and it’s place as a fabled American institution is a fact. Our thesis today is during BULL markets it will “not be as strong” as the overall market (the ratio of WMT/SPX will go DOWN) and during times of fear or volatility it will “be stronger” than the overall market (the ratio of WMT/SPX will go UP).
the chart below does a pretty good job of showing this assumption is valid.
the blue line is the SPX. the candles are the ratio of WMT/SPX. the dashed purple vertical lines are placed on the chart to show the inflection points at tops and bottoms.
note, in 2000 (high), 2003 (low), 2007 (high), 2009 (low) the ratio has 1) moved w/ almost the same velocity and 2) inflected almost exactly inverse as the S&P. HOWEVER from 04/2011-08/2012 the ratio actually trended with the overall market. (this is denoted by the blue arrow going up during this time frame) then, the ratio “went back to normal” and started going back down and the market continued up. an interesting divergence,,,,
the power of pattern recognition is it works on everything. so, we can look for patterns w/in this ratio to show potential inflections and then wrap it into an overall look at different sectors w/in the SPX to make a reasonable guess at moves to come. also, the longer the time frame of the chart, the more powerful the potential pattern becomes.
the chart below shows a clear 5 wave move ending and a pattern to be completing just a little lower. this signals that IF (the big IF) the pattern holds and the ratio finds support and begins to move UP then we “should” see a corresponding move down in the overall market.
stay tuned and say hi to the next greeter you see and also tell them thanks for the market information!
To catch up to speed please view the following posts:
the gold silver index is correcting (or continuing lower) to very important levels – 88.69-89.36 or 86 or 84.21. We never know which level is going to hold or not … that being said, our continued outlook is to be bearish the metals from the perspective of Silver and Gold. I am still holding out for one more leg down …
watch these levels on the gold silver index as if they are taking out, then we have a good idea (probably) that Gold and Silver will also move to our long standing lower targets.
keep your powder dry …