$WFM …
Posted on November 3, 2015 Leave a Comment
I enjoy listening to JC Parets (@allstarcharts) (www.allstarcharts.com ) as he’s entertaining as hell and also knows his stuff. I blame him for getting me blogging and haven’t looked back since …he’s introduced me to blogging, google hang out, twitter and now periscope. today, was doing some emails and “periscope” popped up that he was cruising the charts so I simply hit the app and was immediately logged onto his computer screen where he was pushing some charts around.
one of the charts – Whole Foods. Besides something about overhead supply, divergence, moving averages and stuff like that I called up the chart on a monthly and saw a PERFECT BUY PATTERN.
- note the blue arrows – projects into 27.94
- but more importantly, note that they are equal in PRICE and TIME right in/around here.
- note the extensions (sitting on the 1.27 extension right now)
- 1.4142 extension hits right on the .618 retrace (that’s good) at 27.16-27.21
- last, look at the dashed orange line .. it’s a measured move which represents the largest corrective move since the all times lows in the early 1990’s
So, sure looks like it “should not” go thru 27 so it presents a nice risk reward.
how about some math?
- (square root 65.58-2)^2 = 37.18
- (square root 65.58-4)^2 = 16.79 (right on the .786)
- (square root 65.58-3)^2 = 25.99
so, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level but a lot of math is coming into play in/around 26-27.
thanks JC!
Bart
Natural Gas – another look
Posted on November 1, 2015 6 Comments
folks, the foldback failed .. it sure was a pretty set up down at the very very low price. I’ve thrown a count up there and not too confident of the first part (the left portion) but what I do feel very confident about is the subdivisions of the current wave – which I have labeled 5. The current move into the lows is certainly looking like a 3 and this move up (which is pretty strong by the way) is a 4 so we “should” have one more low in NAT GAS before a big counter trend rally.
$DIS (Disney) short set up
Posted on November 1, 2015 Leave a Comment
I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Note, the Adams Pitchfork. I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …
Bart
Meanwhile, ABX is hanging in there …
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
can see a mintor 5 wave move up from current levels. IF this is BULLISH THEN we should not break the lows at 6.00.
go to the site and “search” ABX .. you’ll see I’ve watching the 6-7 level closely for a while.
need some THRUST and MOMENTUM to get this thing going ELSE it’s dead.
Bart
ABX
SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion. However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio. There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end. With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short. Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below. HAPPY HUNTING ….
Bart
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009
one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?
first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line
I don’t see much of a correlation …..
How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES? THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?
now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX. SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …
Is the ratio hitting some targets? Ummmm, yes.
so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO. Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.
Bart
Parabolic Velocity ….and $MO
Posted on October 29, 2015 Leave a Comment
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
Bart
why I don’t think were out of the woods yet …$NYA
Posted on October 28, 2015 Leave a Comment
so, I follow the $NYA.
it consists of everything and YES it did open/close above the pattern in/around10415 we now have another level approaching which is a bearish sell pattern. (see highlighted blue rectangle) IF we get thru there w/ a daily close THEN I’ll throw in the towel w/ regards to another leg down.
Gold – pattern worked
Silver – pattern worked
GPRO – pattern got smoked today
GOOGL – pattern worked
PCLN – looks like pattern has failed (but i do see a 3 drives to a top – enough is enough already)
Aussie Dollar – never got in it …
Coffee is working but didn’t stop at the pattern but well w/in risk parameters
X went thru pattern but is back above it – again well w/in our risk parameters.
dollar working well .. (EURO short)
again, watch this pattern on the $NYA.
the current market conditions and the AUDJPY – update
Posted on October 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
10/21/2015 – I’ve been asked what I think of the market of late …I’ve answered I have no idea. I see some patterns that suggest YEN strength across multiple currency pairs – and no it isn’t the USD vs JPY. That’s ugly. EURJPY, GBPJPY and my favorite AUDJPY appear they are willing to crack to YEN strength …. they “should” all go which means USD vs JPY which means pressure on equities.
here’s an update to the AUDJPY pattern. Folks, everything about this is so precise and harmonic – it’s one of my favorites. why? simply, I have a greater than 50% chance that the form, proportion and harmony are correct. Sure “looks and feels” that we have completed a daily/weekly wave 4 – almost perfectly in PRICE and TIME and therefore if we break the “KEY KEY SUPPORT” as shown, chances are we are in the beginning stages of 1000+ pip move. If your a currency trader – be ready to rumble.
- NOTE THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE AUDJPY AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX ($NYA)
Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
ROCK ON, OK?
BART
folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market. just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.
but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014. Yes, almost a year ago.
first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES. Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.
anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:
here’s the result:
Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY. Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s. Since then it’s been highly correlated.
So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over? Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t have a clue. However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.
so here we go …
IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.
IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.
NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves. It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance. Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price. We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.
thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
rock on, ok?
B
Why Not …? US STEEL update …
Posted on October 20, 2015 Leave a Comment
10/20/2015
well I’ll be darned … the dog might bark. Sell Pattern forthcoming … trade what you see, not what you believe.
NO ONE BELIEVES X will rally but how many SEE a PERFECT BUY PATTERN….
X is a dog … but, if you look at the picture painted, why not? Get out below 10 and run w/ it?
I saw the breakout earlier this year and thought we had a run going but it failed, big time into the lows shown.
but taking a step back and looking at it … that counts sure appears tempting to risk a couple to get 10? 5;1?
Bart's Charts 