Meanwhile, ABX is hanging in there …
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
can see a mintor 5 wave move up from current levels. IF this is BULLISH THEN we should not break the lows at 6.00.
go to the site and “search” ABX .. you’ll see I’ve watching the 6-7 level closely for a while.
need some THRUST and MOMENTUM to get this thing going ELSE it’s dead.
Bart
ABX
SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion. However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio. There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end. With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short. Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below. HAPPY HUNTING ….
Bart
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009
one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?
first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line
I don’t see much of a correlation …..
How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES? THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?
now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX. SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …
Is the ratio hitting some targets? Ummmm, yes.
so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO. Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.
Bart
Parabolic Velocity ….and $MO
Posted on October 29, 2015 Leave a Comment
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
Bart
why I don’t think were out of the woods yet …$NYA
Posted on October 28, 2015 Leave a Comment
so, I follow the $NYA.
it consists of everything and YES it did open/close above the pattern in/around10415 we now have another level approaching which is a bearish sell pattern. (see highlighted blue rectangle) IF we get thru there w/ a daily close THEN I’ll throw in the towel w/ regards to another leg down.
Gold – pattern worked
Silver – pattern worked
GPRO – pattern got smoked today
GOOGL – pattern worked
PCLN – looks like pattern has failed (but i do see a 3 drives to a top – enough is enough already)
Aussie Dollar – never got in it …
Coffee is working but didn’t stop at the pattern but well w/in risk parameters
X went thru pattern but is back above it – again well w/in our risk parameters.
dollar working well .. (EURO short)
again, watch this pattern on the $NYA.
the current market conditions and the AUDJPY – update
Posted on October 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
10/21/2015 – I’ve been asked what I think of the market of late …I’ve answered I have no idea. I see some patterns that suggest YEN strength across multiple currency pairs – and no it isn’t the USD vs JPY. That’s ugly. EURJPY, GBPJPY and my favorite AUDJPY appear they are willing to crack to YEN strength …. they “should” all go which means USD vs JPY which means pressure on equities.
here’s an update to the AUDJPY pattern. Folks, everything about this is so precise and harmonic – it’s one of my favorites. why? simply, I have a greater than 50% chance that the form, proportion and harmony are correct. Sure “looks and feels” that we have completed a daily/weekly wave 4 – almost perfectly in PRICE and TIME and therefore if we break the “KEY KEY SUPPORT” as shown, chances are we are in the beginning stages of 1000+ pip move. If your a currency trader – be ready to rumble.
- NOTE THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE AUDJPY AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX ($NYA)
Thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
ROCK ON, OK?
BART
folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market. just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.
but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014. Yes, almost a year ago.
first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES. Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.
anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:
here’s the result:
Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY. Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s. Since then it’s been highly correlated.
So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over? Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t have a clue. However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.
so here we go …
IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.
IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.
NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves. It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance. Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price. We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.
thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.
rock on, ok?
B
Why Not …? US STEEL update …
Posted on October 20, 2015 Leave a Comment
10/20/2015
well I’ll be darned … the dog might bark. Sell Pattern forthcoming … trade what you see, not what you believe.
NO ONE BELIEVES X will rally but how many SEE a PERFECT BUY PATTERN….
X is a dog … but, if you look at the picture painted, why not? Get out below 10 and run w/ it?
I saw the breakout earlier this year and thought we had a run going but it failed, big time into the lows shown.
but taking a step back and looking at it … that counts sure appears tempting to risk a couple to get 10? 5;1?
$PCLN sell pattern complete
Posted on October 20, 2015 Leave a Comment
IF the mirror image foldback is in play THEN this pattern needs to hold and start down. a move below 1360 would bolster conviction that the mirror image mentioned earlier is in play.
when the big boys eat soup volatility rises ….update
Posted on October 18, 2015 Leave a Comment
October 18 2015: note, the CPB/NYA ratio has been straight down but it running into potential support a little lower. The thesis is during times of “risk off” institutions roll into the staples and stuff like toilet paper, toothpaste, food, soup, etc. has stronger relative strength. Keep an eye on this next week as support for the ratio “should” work it’s way into more volatility and be bearish for the overall equity picture.
Below the two dashed lines is a post that I did 2 years ago – almost to the day. Pretty amazing …some would call it synchronistic. I’ll just leave it at that …
Personally, I enjoy my Saturday and Sunday morning’s w/ a cup of coffee. Nothing going on, put a little Pandora on the headset and just “chill” and enjoy the amazing fall weather in VA. Little Bird said – “hey Bart, how about CPB soup?” So I took a look and – BAM – I was surprised.
If you go all the way back 2 years ago you’ll see that we had a nice pattern forming and it hit – to a tee at 48.
The market pulled back about 10 bucks and then started to march back up … a slow grind but it did go up.
As you can see above 52 and it was considered a failed pattern.
This week we went up and touched that level and, while I can see a 5 wave count up into this area and seeing an a-b-c type of correction what REALLY made me go hmmm is, of course the relative strength of CPB compared to the NYA. Why? STAPLES BABY …. a couple posts ago I mentioned we should be watching the XLP / $SPX for strength to signal more market weakness. Soup is a staple – period.
So, couple things of note:
- CPB is strong compared to the overall market.
- It has closed, on a weekly basis, the trend channel defined by the blue dashed line.
- there is a 5 wave count into the 52 area so warrant caution here if going to play on the long side.
- the short side is also a play, but would wait for the 48 level to be broken to the downside on a weekly close.
here’s what really has me interested in the RELATIVE STRENGTH OF CPB vs NYA
Points of Interest
- from the 1980’s CPB “outperformed” (the ratio went up) the overall market.
- the ratio TOPPED in 1997. the overall market didn’t top until 2000.
- but when the market did, eventually, top, the relative strength of CPB / NYA bottomed exactly the same time
- think about it for a moment .. the ratio CRASHED going into the top in 2000. Folks, that’s irrational exuberance. throw caution to the wind and get in, get in, get in and then ….ouch.
- while not as dramatic, the same thing occurred in the 2007-2009 period.
- the ratio bottomed as the market topped.
- presently, we do have some strength taking off and we have closed above the black dashed trend line.
- is that a signal that a strong move in the ratio is coming? Potentially, so monitor closely and do not be lulled to sleep. Strength in this ratio is not good for the overall health of the equity market.
one last folks … let’s not try to “fundamentalize” this last chart. that’s for the really smart people .. but take a look at the CPB/NYA ratio and the VIX. It’s a near perfect match.
When the institutions start eating soup … expect volatility to rise.
swings on this puppy have been extremely nice ….charts below.
just follow the bouncing ball …
nice BUY pattern emerged at level forecast …
long term pattern came into play. good pattern/good defined risk …
level being hit ….
note, now we have completed the equality of swings and the level held at/around 41.
watch the lower level on CPB … if we break it, selling could really come in ….
Why Not …? US STEEL
Posted on October 16, 2015 Leave a Comment
X is a dog … but, if you look at the picture painted, why not? Get out below 10 and run w/ it?
I saw the breakout earlier this year and thought we had a run going but it failed, big time into the lows shown.
but taking a step back and looking at it … that counts sure appears tempting to risk a couple to get 10? 5;1?
$BABA
Posted on October 16, 2015 Leave a Comment
10/16/2015
update to BABA – note the butterfly BUY that hit. we’ve rallied nicely and when we roll 3 waves into a new low, that’s a B wave and the move from 56 to 74 sure smells like a C wave. So, might want to take some off or close OR perhaps look for an SRC to short into the 52 zone.
Folks, what a battering for $BABA. The entire world that bought the largest IPO in history has been underwater since basically February 2015. Perhaps, only probability here, their fortunes are about to change (pardon) the pun …
You can see below we have some nice MATH = MUSIC= VIBRATIONS coming into play 50-52.
Bart's Charts 