NATGAS update for a friend …
Posted on November 23, 2015 Leave a Comment
NATGAS as of 11:52 EST 11/23/2015
- note the red horizontal line – that is still just a little bit left of the gap that has not closed. it could go back down there to close it BUT price action from this level is promising.
- also, note the 2.021 level at that is a target (1.618 extension)
- RISK is a daily close below 1.949 for the larger time frame
- RISK intraday is the low that was made at the .786 at 2.058. NEED IT TO STAY ABOVE THERE.
Moving forward believe 2.231-2.56 will act as resistance moving forward. for the bullish case to work – need to bust thru there. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN on the FIRST ATTEMPT. IF it does THEN it’s strong.
- note the count that I am going with …
- see the 3 waves to a top at (b)? that is a classic “b” wave and action after that top sure smells like a C wave. Thus, at 2 0r B if we are bullish then this level will hold and we should continue to start up.
- two projection are near term targets only …. 2.383 and 2.589.
- see the 3 waves to a top at (b)? that is a classic “b” wave and action after that top sure smells like a C wave. Thus, at 2 0r B if we are bullish then this level will hold and we should continue to start up.
- believe the 3.0 level is still possible but need to see price action at areas of resistance noted.
one last, a big picture look at the weekly/monthly so we don’t get to focused on the soda straw of intraday.
so, we are at deeply oversold levels and a countertrend bounce is due.
hope this helps.
Bart
the EURO and .886
Posted on November 23, 2015 Leave a Comment
.886 is derived from square roots.
A quick review:
Frequency of a string is:
- proportional to the square root of it’s length
- inversely proportional to the square root of it’s tension
Here’s the frequencies of the equal octave scale of music:
the GOLDEN MEAN is 1.618
square root of 1.618 is 1.27
1/1.27 = .786
square root of .786 = .886
1/.886 = 1.128 sure looks very very close to musical note D, hugh? Coincidence, I know.
So, to the EURO ….
- daily bullish divergence
- nice 90 day (basic) cycle coming in
- .886 retrace (note how it reacted after every .886 retrace shown (blue shaded rectangles)
- personally was waiting for the 1.27 extension pattern but today’s action doesn’t look like it want’s to get down there.
Conclusion: extremely bearish big picture for the EURO but an A-B-C three wave rally should occur in the coming days.
Home Depot Rocketship …. $HD
Posted on November 22, 2015 Leave a Comment
Well, every other pattern level has been defeated so why not the one’s shown below? We have a bunch of math coming in …130-135.
stay tuned.
SQ ($square) and it’s SQUARE ROOTS …hahaha
Posted on November 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
folks …took a peak at Square’s Square Roots this afternoon.
math is on the chart. note, I like how we have to take the square root of the square root of the high at 14.78 and note the dashed green line and how prices gravitated to that the rest of the day.
interesting?
pay attention to square roots …
enjoy.
B
$BITCOIN
Posted on November 21, 2015 Leave a Comment
sequence looks like it wants one more move lower to complete 5 legs …
however, note the measured move of the last major correction – it’s completed that and a tad bit more.
make it a great weekend.
Bart
$BID Sotheby’s …
Posted on November 14, 2015 Leave a Comment
my good friend Larry sent me a chart this morning .. it’s a chart of Sotheby’s Fine Art auction house … fascinating as big moves down/up follow social mood and the market. It’s interesting to note the higher highs up into 2007 and since then the lower highs present.
it’s finishing a BUY pattern right now as of Friday … is it such a stretch to think the market will follow $BID up or down?
as always, what does the relative strength say? Well another BUY pattern is appearing a little lower and you can see that when BID outperforms – on a relative strength basis – the market overall $NYA finds the bid …
we are at some key levels for BID and it’s relative strength plot is getting close … stay tuned!
Swissy Butterfly
Posted on November 10, 2015 Leave a Comment
this is a nice one … IF it fails THEN the USD is going to take off.
highly probably pattern so expect some weakness in the USD vs CHF in/around these levels.
here’s why it’s called the “butterfly pattern”
when looking for butterfly patterns just think of it as connecting two triangles. the key to the butterfly is the AB=CD leg that makes the high or low. If you have that along w/ the extension targets mentioned then you have a butterfly sell (or buy) set up occurring.
here’s the intraday picture that will give us an idea if this pattern holds or not.
happy hunting.
Bart
Interest Rates … playing w/ the gang over @seeitmarket
Posted on November 9, 2015 1 Comment
Post on Fed Fund Futures from this weekend … interesting and important:
B
keep an eye on this PATTERN
Posted on November 9, 2015 Leave a Comment
to reiterate, the key w/ patterns is the fact they give you a line in the sand to make determinations of trends, possible inflection points and overall strength/weakness of the market.
in this case, we have the $NYA (the largest index) doing the EXACT same thing it did in 2008. so, I like to keep it simple – IF the pattern works again THEN we should see weakness and IF it fails (breaks out to the upside) we have a ways to go. Here’s the pattern …
cheers!
Bart
Technician’s Toolbox: Measured Moves …
Posted on November 8, 2015 Leave a Comment
Measured moves are 1) the easiest and 2) one of the most important techniques in the technicians toolbox.
They represent the “sum” of buyers and sellers and – on long term charts – extremely accurate at marking inflections points and risk controlled entry points. Let’s face it, besides the retail portion (me and you) are going to enter and exit all the time. But the big institutional money, they move the market. And, they leave footprints … measured moves.
I don’t like to go back in time and the do the “could of would of should of” but I just want to show some charts w/ measured moves …
Take a peak at the KIWI vs USD:
if you note the blue arrow you’ll see that this stopped the market EXACTLY in 2009 … there was no retracement (typical that is) or anything like that … go to the longest charts possible and you’ll find these measured moves. USE THEM … also note, the blue arrow has harmonic components to the crash from 1972-1985. 1.732 (square root of 3) and 2x blue arrow nailed the measured moves down … almost perfectly.
here’s one more – the dollar index. (hint hint, check this one out)
EVERY MOVE SINCE THE 2008 LOW HAS BEEN A MEASURED MOVE REPLICA ….
so, hopefully I have your attention. do yourself a favor, before you put on indicator chaos (I used to also) clear the chart of all indicators and just look at price and time. find these key measured moves and either jot them down or annotate them on your chart and THEN put the indicators that you use back on the chart. you’ll be glad you did ….
that brings us to the Australian Dollar.
Usually, when you have a measured move lying on a FIB and Square of Nine target it’s awesome. Not such thing for the Aussie and if you’ve been following my blog you’ll see I was looking to LONG AUD vs USD. Why? Here’s the chart:
We had a .618/.786 overlap w/ in 50+ pips, a very powerful measured move (blue arrow) and a low to high trend line all coming in … the darn thing hasn’t budged and, in fact, it’s closed for 3 months below the .618 retracement from the all time low. W E A K … no pattern to BUY ever appeared but a sell pattern did and I missed it .. I was too bias about trying to get long. Ugh. Anyway, when something like this doesn’t cause a BIG MOVE then the market is fundamentally really weak. So what should we do? Well, break out the measured moves and doing some basic time work …
Here’s the time work .. note it looks like we have a cycle low coming in March 2016:
what’s could the price be? Well, I think it’s going to be a measured move …
so, back to the drawing board .. this one is going to be interesting. Also, note what this means for oil, natural gas, gasoline futures, etc.
Bart
