Dollar Index .. on it’s way
Posted on November 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
you know what, we might be surprised at how big this coming run is going to be for the dollar … make no doubt, the next rise has begun.
if your already in, stay in. if your not, believe we’ll find some short term resistance in/around here for a pull back to 96.50 or so to get a ticket on this train.
this takes time to digest … slow down and read/study it
Posted on November 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTES: the market has rallied since the August lows … this move up is impulsive which give probability to the bulls that were going to continue. that being said, SELL patterns are present as of the past couple days so I expect resistance or a churn for the next week. In looking at the DOW please read below – sure looks like it wants to go up to 22,000.
I am posting this again because I want to spend some time “looking” at the picture that is created below. It’s using LOG’s and Musical scale properties and, if you study it you’ll see how the market “zoomed” up into the next octave and that’s exactly where it’s been stuck for the past 15 years. Most, if not all of the turns have been one of these levels ….so, to “end” the next octave we need to get up to 22,000. That’s another 20% or so … it sure seems to ‘want’ to do it.
Just a pattern guy and I sense/feel the craziness creeping in all over …. but that really doesn’t matter does it? The market DOES WHAT IT WANTS and a “sprint” up to 22,000 on the DOW just doesn’t seem out of the question.
Here’s the art … just study the picture and see the math/music at work .. it’s an incredible picture. Also, note the importance of the major third. folks you can’t make this up … that ratio was present at the 1987 high and the 2007 high. Is that a coincidence? Someone please prove me wrong here OR the biggest hedge funds in the world – Citadel, Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen, etc – were all waiting right at those NUMBERS to short the market. Me, I don’t think so … no, I think there is something actually more powerful at work. But we’ll leave that for a discussion face to face over a nice glass of wine …
either way, here’s the chart again and another chart showing the “as above” – “so below” technique … again, looks like 22,000 is the target.
enjoy and let me know if you have any questions … one last, read below regarding the EXACT high on the NYSE using LOGS and the price of the all time low (move the decimal) – folks you can’t make this shit up.
Bart
What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs. I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.” I think it is …
- I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
- Background:
- the frequency of a string is:
- inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
- directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
- here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses
- the frequency of a string is:
- Here is the math:
- 28.48 LN = 3.3492
- 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
- anti-log of XXX = YYY
- plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA
- For example:
- NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
- 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
- 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
- interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
- some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
- 3.3492+.07937005 (note the number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
- anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683
is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?
So what does this mean? Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question? Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.
Here’s a look on the way down …
Happy Hunting and study up …
Bart
anyone else notice the GAP DOWN in Fed Fund Futures?
Posted on November 4, 2015 Leave a Comment
I will claim, right now, to have ZERO IDEA or INTEREST what fundamentals drive interest rate policy. Not a clue. However, I will claim to be able to read charts to manage risk. Am I “right” every time … well yes, because I know where I’m wrong every time (TILT) because I’m a pattern dude.
That being said, I am hawking the Fed Fund Futures contract (FF #F) and this week we had the largest gap down (interest rates higher) since 2009. Note, right below this channel is a “window” that has not been “closed” so perhaps we see a move out of the channel and into the window. IF we have a WEEKLY close below the channel THEN believe we have changed trend and interest rates will be going a LOT higher.
Use your fundamentals and other technicals to derive and idea but please use these levels as key demarcation points.
Ten Year: approaching a KEY SELL PATTERN. Let’s do the “IF – THEN” …IF rates are continuing to rise THEN this SELL pattern will fail. THIS IS A KEY LEVEL. Here’s the chart:
TLT: here’s the beauty of PATTERNS. Correspondingly, we have a BUY PATTERN on TLT. I’m showing 2 buy patterns. 1 in the light blue is approaching or at the buy level. It’s roughly 120. The other (yellow) is lower and is down at 116.
IF you want to SHORT YIELD THEN one of these levels will work and the 10 year will hold. IF you are a LONG RATES person then the TLT levels will fail and rates should continue to rise.
One last thing … when you have a “change” in trend, the market will tell you. I have used the RSI (long term) in the past and want to call attention to the ratio of TEN YEAR / GOLD. Note, the last support found in this ratio was ABOVE 30 and, basically, on the BULLISH support zone. The market very well might be telling us something.
CONCLUSION: w/out ANY fundamental back drop – trust me they are important but I’m not smart enough to learn it – the charts below show me very important SELL and BUY patterns that are inverse of each other. One of them will fail (yield vs price) and THAT will dictate the direction of rates for the coming months … no matter what the talking head pundits on TV claim.
thanks for reading this far ….
Bart
$WFM …
Posted on November 3, 2015 Leave a Comment
I enjoy listening to JC Parets (@allstarcharts) (www.allstarcharts.com ) as he’s entertaining as hell and also knows his stuff. I blame him for getting me blogging and haven’t looked back since …he’s introduced me to blogging, google hang out, twitter and now periscope. today, was doing some emails and “periscope” popped up that he was cruising the charts so I simply hit the app and was immediately logged onto his computer screen where he was pushing some charts around.
one of the charts – Whole Foods. Besides something about overhead supply, divergence, moving averages and stuff like that I called up the chart on a monthly and saw a PERFECT BUY PATTERN.
- note the blue arrows – projects into 27.94
- but more importantly, note that they are equal in PRICE and TIME right in/around here.
- note the extensions (sitting on the 1.27 extension right now)
- 1.4142 extension hits right on the .618 retrace (that’s good) at 27.16-27.21
- last, look at the dashed orange line .. it’s a measured move which represents the largest corrective move since the all times lows in the early 1990’s
So, sure looks like it “should not” go thru 27 so it presents a nice risk reward.
how about some math?
- (square root 65.58-2)^2 = 37.18
- (square root 65.58-4)^2 = 16.79 (right on the .786)
- (square root 65.58-3)^2 = 25.99
so, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level but a lot of math is coming into play in/around 26-27.
thanks JC!
Bart
Natural Gas – another look
Posted on November 1, 2015 6 Comments
folks, the foldback failed .. it sure was a pretty set up down at the very very low price. I’ve thrown a count up there and not too confident of the first part (the left portion) but what I do feel very confident about is the subdivisions of the current wave – which I have labeled 5. The current move into the lows is certainly looking like a 3 and this move up (which is pretty strong by the way) is a 4 so we “should” have one more low in NAT GAS before a big counter trend rally.
$DIS (Disney) short set up
Posted on November 1, 2015 Leave a Comment
I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Note, the Adams Pitchfork. I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …
Bart
Meanwhile, ABX is hanging in there …
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
can see a mintor 5 wave move up from current levels. IF this is BULLISH THEN we should not break the lows at 6.00.
go to the site and “search” ABX .. you’ll see I’ve watching the 6-7 level closely for a while.
need some THRUST and MOMENTUM to get this thing going ELSE it’s dead.
Bart
ABX
SBUX and Coffee Prices …update 10/30/2015
Posted on October 30, 2015 Leave a Comment
Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion. However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio. There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end. With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short. Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below. HAPPY HUNTING ….
Bart
Ratio of SBUX/COFFEE
SBUX/Coffee and SBUX (blue line)
SBUX Monthly – note pitchfork trendlines and potential targets being hit
SBUX weekly log … watch for a weekly signal reversal candle and/or a weekly close below red log trend line from 2009
one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?
first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line
I don’t see much of a correlation …..
How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES? THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?
now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX. SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …
Is the ratio hitting some targets? Ummmm, yes.
so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO. Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.
Bart
Parabolic Velocity ….and $MO
Posted on October 29, 2015 Leave a Comment
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
Bart
