Part V and “I Can’t Quit You Baby”

this was Part IV a couple months ago:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/16/part-v-sp-and-sector-rotation/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g5Ypz74jQw

I think this ratio is one of the most important out there as it shows the rotation into the staples of life, so to speak.  additionally, at EVERY major inflection point since 2000 when this ratio bottoms or tops the market does the opposite.  this pattern is complete, it held and I think it will prove to be very bearish for the market.

I can’t quit you XLP/SPX ratio …

November 10 2013 XLP SPX ratio

Part IV and “your time is gonna come”

this is the Part IV post from a couple months ago:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/15/part-iv-sp-and-energy/

this energy sector needs to be watched … the OSX, XOI, XLE are painting  the same picture as they have gone up in the context of targets that have now been hit or are completing just a little higher. Crude, however, has been pretty weak … not widely reported is the fact that the Administration basically lifted economic sanctions on Iran so perhaps they are flooding the markets w/ their oil…who knows and that’s not for me to conjecture.

however, in the context of the S&P energy does make up roughly 10% of the index so, in order for the index to start moving lower we will need to see these patterns complete and start down.  they HAVE NOT yet …but they are basically in the zone

November 10 2013 XOI November 10 2013 OSX November 10 2013 Crude November 10 2013 XLE

follow up to Part II w/ Led Zeppelin “your time is going to come”

last post on the banks:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-ii-the-sp-500-and-too-big-to-fail/

You Tube link to Led Zeppelin:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fssblRRCgmg

updated chart .. certainly looks like the banks “time is going to come – soon or now”

banks PATTERN complete/completing
banks PATTERN complete/completing

Follow Up to Part I … going around the world again w/ a little Led Zeppelin “the song remains the same”

following up this post:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-1-the-sp-500-but-first-we-need-to-go-around-the-world/

cliff notes: the US markets are the ONLY  ones to make new highs …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m2FhRv8xF0

also, note that France was downgraded last week to AA and the EURO-zone cut rates …

“I had a dream, a crazy dream…” the Song Remains the Same – the tsunami is approaching.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

November 10 2013 ACWI November 10 2013 EWA November 10 2013 CHINA November 10 2013 France November 10 2013 Germany November 10 2013 UK November 10 2013 Japan November 10 2013 Hong Kong November 10 2013 Canada

$TWTR .. if you shorted it at the pattern completing at 50 you would be up 20%

it’s no secret – I don’t know fundamentals.

it’s really really confusing and seems very intellectual.  I do, however, know charts and price/time.

so, if TWTR opened at 45 and peaked at 50 and close today around 40.50 well … isn’t the entire world underwater w/ that amazing investment in a company that has NEVER turned a profit.

things that make you go hmmmm

TWTR end of the 2nd day of trading
TWTR end of the 2nd day of trading

 

 

 

$YHOO, Rocky and TAP OUT

in the world I live in the chart is everything …

price and time and PATTERNS.  an amazing businessman, friend, mentor and excellent investor/trader and I are short YHOO.  he’s listened, studied and has seen the power of the patterns …the power in the fact that they manage risk.  BUY or SELL at the pattern level and decide how much to risk … pretty easy, correct?

well, tonight, I’ll admit I am tired …

as one of the few remaining BEARS out there I simply have to take stock of YHOO.  We are short YHOO and it’s held 33.50 for three months.  if you study the chart below and if your a candle guy or gal you’ll find that for 3 months the OPEN/CLOSE has been almost exactly at the same level.  pretty cool that the PATTERN identified has held the market at bay and yes, REAL capital has been deployed.  (note: I don’t know WHO this is going out to in the virtual world but everything that I blog is real time w/ real capital at RISK..) the bottom line — it HAS NOT sold off from this level.  I could go on and on about margin debt, cycles from the 1800’s, deflation, QE, talking head pundits and all of that “stuff.”  

so what do you do … ?  you go back to your training and objectively assess the situation.

1. in 2005 top there were, obviously, some very powerful intra-month swings for 3 months and then capitulation.

2. look at the lows in 2001-2003 – TWO YEARS of an up and down swing and then it explode from 4 to 44 dollars.

3.  mid 2006-mid 2007 we did the N correction (blue arrows) and then capitulation…note, we are at the same level as we were at the time of the thump in 2007.  coincidence?  no…I don’t think so…

so, if you think about it for 3 months we have been “in the money” and “out of the money” so what is the gameplan …?

1.  REMAIN SHORT

2. Expect 33.52 to potentially give away to the upside but the 36.25 area to hold and it sells off big time.

3.  IF we get a DAILY close above 38/we are wrong and STOP OUT.

now that I have presented my plan there is no “fret” or “guessing” just pure numbers …

look at that SEPTEMBER candle into 33.36 … we KNOW why it’s digesting in this area, but we don’t know if it’s going to crack and go to 16 …

last thing – note our low was 9 (3*3) and the .786 is 36 (6*6)

“it is always better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out …”

believe we will find out, soon where this puppy is going ….

TAP OUT or put up the Rocky fight … TBD

make it a great weekend …Main20131108223604

B

silver following the script – part II

the first post on Silver:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/09/05/silver-following-the-script/

here is an update to the chart .. if our 4 is correct, we should see a strong move to the downside start to develop as we are then POTENTIALLY in a wave 3 of 5 of the 5th and final wave down into our BUY zone of 14.  the only thing we need to contend w/ is IF (the BIG IF) the 50ish level was a macro 3 or 5.  I can move into either camp …however, I do believe 14 will give us a nice buy signal (the first one in 2+ years)

the chart:

silver update
silver update

#hype, #bubbles everywhere, #irrational exuberance, #caveat emptor for $TWTR

certainly could be quite the story if Twitter marked the top in the market …

anyway, below is Twitters first day of trading – no patterns or anything like that, yet but I did want to show you a 1 minute chart and how most, if not all, of the swings were being governed by the numbers that we use …no moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators or anything like that … just key numbers that put probability in your favor and allow you to work and play w/ your edge.

pretty interesting that it basically closed where it opened …and, I find it also interesting that this amazing IPO occurred when it’s index (the NAZZIE) was DOWN roughly 2% and that it basically closed where it opened … things that make you go hmmmmmm

TWTR first day of trading intraday chart
TWTR first day of trading intraday chart
TWTR second day of trading and premarket
TWTR second day of trading and premarket

 

note, a nice little SELL pattern in the pre-market….just saying. upper targets (note w/ blue ellipses) are where the “should I stay or should I go” will come into play …

B