$WMT ,November 2013 looking for the top and now 55-56 for support

Posted on October 15, 2015     Leave a Comment

Here’s the picture of $WMT in 2013 – sure looked, at the time, we were finishing 5 waves and the circle area was the target area for a “potential” top.

$WMT moving into the highs - Nov 2013

$WMT moving into the highs – Nov 2013

Target was hit and yesterday the move rally began.  Hard to believe it’s roughly 2 years ago that this pattern was ID’d and it took that long for it to start to make the “news” so to speak.  Anyway, now that the chaos and news is getting ahold of it, believe a look at a potential long swing trade in the mid to low 50’s is reasonable.

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Here’s the daily chart … note the square root target of 56 lands right on the .382 retracement from the all time low. I like that … watch that 55-56 level.

Just another math thing … 90/1.618 = 56.  Another reason to like the level.

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Here’s the weekly 1/8th projection method …

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55-56 sure seems like it’s key WHICH MEANS IF IT FAILS THEN WE GOT SOMETHING REALLY WRONG AT THE CIRCLE K.

B

 

 

 

Soybeans

Posted on October 10, 2015     Leave a Comment

Page_15-10-10_15-11-40the target was lower than originally planned but it appears the node from August 1970 is holding.

I expect up from here.

Bart

 

 

SBUX and Coffee Prices …

Posted on October 10, 2015     1 Comment

one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?

first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line

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I don’t see much of a correlation …..

How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES?  THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?

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now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX.  SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …

Is the ratio hitting some targets?  Ummmm, yes.

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so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO.  Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.

Bart

$TWTR update as of 10/10/2015

Posted on October 10, 2015     1 Comment

$TWTR to find significant resistance, if not continue downtrend  in the 32-34 area.

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$NYA completing sell pattern – this will be key to further movement higher

Posted on October 8, 2015     Leave a Comment

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Junk Bonds …boom, right on the target area. K E Y !!

Posted on October 4, 2015     Leave a Comment

Junk Bonds … just think of em’ this way…risk investments and a yield play.  in a volatile world, they aren’t so smart so institutions try to get out of them.  keep it simple … note coming into the 2009 low they were crashing .. a nice bounce and then meandered around into June 2014 then started to crack.  Most recent price action has seen some heavy selling pressure w/ the first noticeable gap down occurring last week AND (this is important) the lowest weekly close since August 2009.

Note the dashed black boxes .. those were all attempts at trying to get below but were defeated.  What’s the positive spin?  Well, as you can see from the first chart below this level (35) was ID as a pattern and it hit and held for now. Why for now?  Well a gap down and some “selling candles” make it probable that we could lose this level to the downside. HOWEVER, if history is our guide, their has been a snap back rally since 2009 each time this level was defeated .. so, watch for strength!  a small, dead count bounce isn’t good and will tell us if something is a foot at the circle K so to speak ….

JNK

Here is JNK as of Sunday night … over the coming days, expecially Tuesday, monitor this pattern closely for a directional bias and a “risk on” vs “risk off” appetite w/ regard to volatility.

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Hope your having a good end to your weekend.

Bart

musical note E, 1896, 1987, 2007 and now

Posted on October 4, 2015     2 Comments

What a great day yesterday … was working thru what my wife calls the “man flu,” it was pouring rain and nothing but great college football and logs.  I know, that was geeky but during half-time of the Navy vs AF game I just sat down in front of my computer and said “self, let’s see if music is really involved in the market.”  I think it is …

  • I have never done this before, what you see is the result of starting from the all time low of 28.48 on 08/08/1896 some 43,250 calendar days ago as of this posting and simply “did the math.”
  • Background:
    • the frequency of a string is:
      • inversely proportional to the square root of its length and
      • directly proportional to square root of it’s tension
      • here is a chart of the notes and the ratio’s and their inverses

Equal_Temperament_Scale

  • Here is the math:
    • 28.48 LN = 3.3492
    • 3.34492 + ratio of equal octave scale = XXX
    • anti-log of XXX = YYY
    • plot YYY on long term monthly of DJIA

 

  • For example:
    • NOTE E: ratio 1.259921 and the inverse 1/1.259921 = .7937005
    • 3.3492+.7937005 = 4.1429005
    • 4.1386205 anti-log = 13896
      • interesting to note how close that was to the top in 2007
      • some 20 years prior the same “E” was wreaking havoc – here’s the math
        • 3.3492+.07937005 (note the  number stays the same – JUST SHIFT THE DECIMAL POINT) = 3.42857005
        • anti-log of 3.42857005 =2683

is it any coincidence that the musical note E was found in 1987 and 2007 from the all time low in 1896?

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So what does this mean?  Well, take a look at the chart … in 1997 the market came up and started another octave and has been banging in/around C-E for the past 20+ years. Note, the market did not CLOSE below the start of the octave “C” in 2009 … if I was in charge (and trust me I’m not) I sure think this market naturally wants to finish it’s symphony, so to speak, so is 22K out of the question?  Who knows but I’m certainly going to be aware of these long term targets from 1896 as a guide.

Here’s a look on the way down …

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Happy Hunting and study up …

Bart

Stonehenge, the Pyramids and the high on the NYSE Index …

Posted on October 3, 2015     Leave a Comment

I’ve been asked, why do you use long term log charts so much …? Frankly, I think they are the MOST important tool in a chartists tool box.

When a mathematical property (LOGS, ANTI-LOGS, EXPONENTS) are responsible for the British Foot System, Stonehenge and the Great Pyramids I take notice …

In a prior post we discussed that “decimal points” are just “things” and when using vibrations (i.e. the market) we can move/adjust the decimal point.  Take for instance the all time low on the NYSE Index at 347.77.

  • PI = 3.142
  • 3.142 = 31.42
  • 31.42*347.77 = 10926.93 (see light blue dashed line)

Of note, the amazing Martin Armstrong called for his ECM model to turn October 01, 2015.  I suspect if might have something to do w/ PI and the decimal shift. You see the fateful top in 1929 was September 03rd.  10/01/2015 was 31,439 days ago OR 3.1429.

If we go back to your long term LOG charts you’ll see the power of connecting lows via trend lines (those are key cycles) but what we can also do is PROJECT price targets and time targets.

Today, we’ll just focus on PRICE.

  • All time low: 347.77
  • Log (the LN key on calculator) 347.77 = 5.85154
  • 347.77 = 3.477
  • 5.585154+3.477 = 9.32854
  • anti-log 9.32854 = 11254

Is that the EXACT high? Um, yeah, pretty much but – IS IT THE HIGH? I don’t know but what I do know is everything is tied together and it’s all math …

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have a good weekend …

 

 

USD vs LOONIE first target hit

Posted on October 3, 2015     Leave a Comment

we have a weekly signal reversal present w/ a realistic count and “monthly” bearish divergence as the new high was being made.  So, for now, expect LOONIE strength which “should” translate to higher oil prices and the Oil Services Index rising.  However, take a look at the count.  I see this as a subdivided 3rd wave so this is a wave 4 working out, which will ultimately bottom and cause another new high to be made by the USD.  For now, if your a long dollar expect some pressure and if you can play the long LOONIE side this would be a good time to look for the first pullback to give it a shot.

just search “loonie” on my site and you’ll see we’ve been waiting – patiently- for this target to get hit.

 

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$DNKN and it’s harmony/math

Posted on October 1, 2015     Leave a Comment

don’t know anything about $DNKN.  I like their coffee and get their donuts every once in a while …so, it’s a rainy day here in VA and just saw on my $TWTR fee that they are shutting down 100 stores (bummer) and thought I would take a look at their stocks.  With full disclosure – this is all after the fact, except one part (looks like 36 is the first stop) but I figured I would just go up the ladder and point “stuff” out …

at each one of the dashed boxes w/ yellow fill there is something to point out …

  • the low at “b” from the IPO a “perfect” AB=CD into the 1.27 extension at 23
    • square root of 1.618 = 1.27
      • note: 1/1.27 = .786
    • (square root of 32 – .786)^2 = 23.72
  • high at “1” and a price of 37 is a 1.4142 extension pattern
    • note the high was 1.5874 – musical note ratio of equal octave scale
    • square root of 2 = 1.4142
    • (square root 23.71+1)^2 = 34.44 (the close/open for roughly 6 weeks)
  • low at “2” a .618 retracement after 5 waves down.
    • (square root 37.10-.786)^2 =28.14
    • also the corrective move from 1-2 = move from a-b.
  • high at 3 is 1.78179 (musical note of equal octave scale) of wave 1
    • 24.37 weeks of open/closes square root target is: 51.84
  • low at 4 is
    • 1.618 extension of 3
    • .447 retrace
      • 5, square root = 2.236, 1/2.236 = .447
    • .5 retrace
    • also, see the corrective moves a-b and 1-2? the corrective move from 3-4 is 1.27 x those corrections.
  • the high at 5
    • has 5 waves going up into it and – also – is a 1.27 extension target of 3-4

Here’s the picture …

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Now what about the real time stuff ? sure looks like the MATH says 3o bucks/share

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why did it stop where it did today?

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  • we have extensions from the last swing (3 of them) = 1.618, 1.27, 2.236 (square root of 5)
    • NOTE the gap OPENED at the 1.27 extension (questions?)
  • then, of course we rolled half way around the wheel into our square root target as shown.
  • .841 retracement (1/1.1892 – musical note from equal octave scale of music) – origin is from the 2 blue arrows point up around 40 bucks

So, anyway, if you have read this far, congrats.  hope this helps – not sure why I did this … perhaps to reinforce that the market is vibratory and governed by patterns associated w/ musical notes and sacred geometry …

let me know if you have any questions …

Bart

 

bgcover2

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