Bart's Charts

Aussie vs USD updated as of 09/16

Posted on September 16, 2015     Leave a Comment

09/16/2015 – thus far, the AUSSIE vs USD has gained roughly 300+pips.  We’re close (depending on Friday) to putting in a weekly Signal Reversal Candle.  It’s where the HIGH of the LOW candle (weekly) is taken out by price.

w/ the FED meeting tomorrow, expect volatility to come into play and will be looking to BUY AUSSIE vs USD after the show/games tomorrow and, hopefully, w/ a nice pullback.

The pullback from 7070 was the day of the KIWI rate cut and w/ that much thrust into a level I elected to pass.  Nothing has excited me thus far …so still waiting.

take a look at this picture of Gasoline Continuous Futures – MONTHLY and the PATTERN, long term trend line and most oversold in the history of my price data ….looks like a bottom is forming or close to forming.  Either way, the AUSSIE and Gasoline Futures are aligned well. Could be a big move coming …

here’s the AUSSIE vs USD w/ the Gasoline Futures:

 

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09/08/2015 – my target area/zone got crunched pretty bad, and my count is wrong.  all that being said, I didn’t take into account the measured move from 89-01. quite frankly, w/ all that ‘stuff’ coming into the areas as shown below I didn’t  think it could.  So the age old adage of “thinking” versus “seeing” left my target thumped.  W/ so much thrust and momentum going I did not take the long trade but have been waiting …

but, as of last night it has give us a DAILY SRC and when I went back and erased everything I saw a monster cycle coming in and the measured move hit perfectly …hmmm.

how to play ? WAIT for a PATTERN to appear on perhaps a 60 minute chart .. watch gasoline futures and crude and the All Ordinaries for a sign of life and also the Chinese market …

here’s the updated chart:

will update (real time) the play here and the risk and the real time move of a dude in his home juggling dynamite w/ gorilla’s in a cage .. cool hugh?

Bart

 

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Folks, back in October the post below the two dash lines was searching for a low to be in place on the AUD. The form and proportion were just about right. However, w/ the big move in crude, the interest rate extravaganza and the a whole host of other fundamental reasons the real issue is the PATTERN level didn’t work … it went approximately 300 pips below.  HOWEVER, the overall thesis that the Aussie is bottoming versus the dollar still holds true.  It’s showing some nice strength tonight …would love to get a very nice pullback to go long in/around these levels.

Updated charts below:

 

Note the monthly RSI levels … the BIG MOVES UP occurred right where we are sitting.  Also, a case can be made that 4 is complete and we are going to new highs …

last time I checked the Aussie wasn’t part of the US Dollar index … so, watch this one closely. At a minimum we are completing/completed an A and a nice B wave up is to occur.

let’s just get on the right side of the trade and right now that looks like bullish entry for the AUD vs USD.

 

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The Aussie has been correcting for a while and, folks, the move down from 1.100 ish certainly appears to be corrective.  What does that mean?  We are “at” or “near the beginning of a multi year advance that will take out the high July 2011.  Here’s the monthly picture …

TILT … everyone is talking about US Dollar strength – yes, but they are talking about the dollar index which the Aussie isn’t even a part of it.  Or if it is the weight is negligible so in this case we have to take this pair as a single entity – not a weighted index.

here’s the weekly:

note the 3 waves down … that is the key.  it was not a 5 wave movement.  has this correction been complex – yes.  But it’s falling right in line w/ a double three labeled w,x,y.

and, the daily, shown below, just completed 5 waves down.  While it would be perfect symmetrical three drives to a bottom is we go down and attack 8400 – there is a good case to be made that a low is in place. we’ll have to wait for an intraday pattern to appear …

and finally, we’ll see the move down on a 60 minute chart is a clearly defined 5 waves.

so … there ya have it.

what to do?  Well, our thesis is we are beginning a multi year move to take out the old highs from 2011.  IF THAT IS CORRECT THEN WE ARE IN the first stages of the advance.  the first move up (wave 1) will complete and then wave 2 will come and, more than likely, w/ a vengeance because everyone thinks the “old trend” is in play.  That’s the BUYING OPPORTUNITY and price should never go below the low that was formed last week.

stay tuned …get ready to rumble.

Bart

 

most volume, ever. is something a foot at the Circle K?

Posted on September 15, 2015     Leave a Comment

Folks, no clue which way interest rates are going w/ the FED.

do know their is 1.4 quadrillion outstanding derivatives, 100 fold increase in the money supply and – of course – 5000 year low in interest rates.  so, in the big picture does what happens on Thursday really matter? Um, no … unchartered waters folks.

teach yourself how to look for supply and demand points – resistance and support on a chart and go for it …

that being said, note we have the most volume ever showing up on the Fed Futures Monthly chart … we have a bottom that has been “chilling” out for 6 years so – again – if we get a weekly close below the daily gap (shown on the second chart below) rates are going higher … no matter what the Fed does.

 

Crude Oil direction … watch the USD vs LOONIE breakout/breakdown for a clue

Posted on September 15, 2015     1 Comment

the current market conditions and the AUDJPY

Posted on September 12, 2015     Leave a Comment

folks, this is not a “I told you so” blog or any of that because I have no idea what’s going to happen from one minute to the next in the market.  just look for patterns and then “IF-THEN” the resulting move if the pattern works or doesn’t to manage risk … seriously.

but I did want to spend just a little bit of time on the PATTERN that appeared on the AUDJPY back in November 2014.  Yes, almost a year ago.

first off – here’s the foot stomp – GO BACK AND LOOK AT LONG TERM CHARTS and, obtw, take all of the indicators and oscillators and all that other useless garbage off the chart and look for PATTERNS and MEASURED MOVES.  Once you find them, then throw all the indicators you want onto the chart … it’s like using steak sauce on a perfectly grilled steak.

anyway – look at the PERFECT repeat of the pattern in 2007-2008 on the AUDJPY:

here’s the result:

Why is this important to the US Equity Market? Here’s a chart showing the $NYA overlaid on the AUDJPY.  Note the close correlation that occurred in the early 2000’s.  Since then it’s been highly correlated.

So, is the “correction” in the AUDJPY and the EQUITY markets over?  Using Fundamentals (which I don’t) I can tell you I don’t  have a clue.  However, we do have a PATTERN that is crucial to the overall direction of the equity markets.

so here we go …

IF the AUDJPY can stay above the crucial 81.90 level THEN equity markets should rally.

IF AUDJPY loses this level (81.90) THEN equity markets will continue to slide lower.

NOTE: the yellow boxed area contains ALL of the current AUDJPY moves.  It’s also a region of 4 years of resistance.  Note, the red trend line coming from the Jul 2011 top into current market price.  We spiked thru it but are still above it – watch that closely.

thanks for reading and let me know if you have any questions.

rock on, ok?

B

 

EURO – is it “time”

Posted on September 10, 2015     Leave a Comment

when I get ready to put a “position” on I ALWAYS erase the chart and start at the longest, most “biggest” time frame that I can use …

in getting ready to put a “positional”  idea to work I like to understand where it’s been and where it’s going … as they use to say in the Navy – “go big or go home.”

so, in order to do this I’ll put the chart on first and then discuss what I “see” – not believe.

 

• Euro started trading in 1999. Synthetic (based on interest rates, GDP, compilation of combined currencies, etc) prices are shown in the black box.
• RSI – lowest, ever.  note, don’t need bullish divergence to get this thing moving UP big
• Trend line from 1984 appears to be in force …
• It hasn’t closed above 1.12 for 6+ months
• the “extension” point 2005 low nailed the low this year at the 1.27 extension point (square root of 1.618)
  • a break down from here “should” lead to .9910 or .9000

Mirror Image Foldbacks .. they are planetary in nature and think of the rule in math .. the angle of incidence equals the angle of coincidence. yup… price will come INTO a point and, sometimes, go back out that point in the same manner.

• note the foldback point … then note how after the 2009 high we came down the EXACT same way and now it appears we are in the final blow off move lower … I think there is lower to go based on this foldback picture.

 

now, look at the price swings present on the foldback – they are almost exact.  I like this foldback picture – so believe we have another move lower based on that picture.

so, where are we now?

if we go down to a 4 hour chart we’ll see that after we completed a A-B-C correction from April the market moved down w/ 5 waves.  W/ that in mind – note there was a higher target around 50 pips away … bummer, as I was waiting on that one.  so, note a little more push higher and then it’s time to make the decision to deploy capital.

THE ONLY THING I KNOW IS MY RISK .. and that is the shaded red area. THAT IS ALL I CAN CONTROL ….

Cheers and thanks for reading …

B

Aussie vs USD updated

Posted on September 8, 2015     Leave a Comment

09/08/2015 – my target area/zone got crunched pretty bad, and my count is wrong.  all that being said, I didn’t take into account the measured move from 89-01. quite frankly, w/ all that ‘stuff’ coming into the areas as shown below I didn’t  think it could.  So the age old adage of “thinking” versus “seeing” left my target thumped.  W/ so much thrust and momentum going I did not take the long trade but have been waiting …

but, as of last night it has give us a DAILY SRC and when I went back and erased everything I saw a monster cycle coming in and the measured move hit perfectly …hmmm.

how to play ? WAIT for a PATTERN to appear on perhaps a 60 minute chart .. watch gasoline futures and crude and the All Ordinaries for a sign of life and also the Chinese market …

here’s the updated chart:

will update (real time) the play here and the risk and the real time move of a dude in his home juggling dynamite w/ gorilla’s in a cage .. cool hugh?

Bart

 

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Folks, back in October the post below the two dash lines was searching for a low to be in place on the AUD. The form and proportion were just about right. However, w/ the big move in crude, the interest rate extravaganza and the a whole host of other fundamental reasons the real issue is the PATTERN level didn’t work … it went approximately 300 pips below.  HOWEVER, the overall thesis that the Aussie is bottoming versus the dollar still holds true.  It’s showing some nice strength tonight …would love to get a very nice pullback to go long in/around these levels.

Updated charts below:

 

Note the monthly RSI levels … the BIG MOVES UP occurred right where we are sitting.  Also, a case can be made that 4 is complete and we are going to new highs …

last time I checked the Aussie wasn’t part of the US Dollar index … so, watch this one closely. At a minimum we are completing/completed an A and a nice B wave up is to occur.

let’s just get on the right side of the trade and right now that looks like bullish entry for the AUD vs USD.

 

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---

The Aussie has been correcting for a while and, folks, the move down from 1.100 ish certainly appears to be corrective.  What does that mean?  We are “at” or “near the beginning of a multi year advance that will take out the high July 2011.  Here’s the monthly picture …

TILT … everyone is talking about US Dollar strength – yes, but they are talking about the dollar index which the Aussie isn’t even a part of it.  Or if it is the weight is negligible so in this case we have to take this pair as a single entity – not a weighted index.

here’s the weekly:

note the 3 waves down … that is the key.  it was not a 5 wave movement.  has this correction been complex – yes.  But it’s falling right in line w/ a double three labeled w,x,y.

and, the daily, shown below, just completed 5 waves down.  While it would be perfect symmetrical three drives to a bottom is we go down and attack 8400 – there is a good case to be made that a low is in place. we’ll have to wait for an intraday pattern to appear …

and finally, we’ll see the move down on a 60 minute chart is a clearly defined 5 waves.

so … there ya have it.

what to do?  Well, our thesis is we are beginning a multi year move to take out the old highs from 2011.  IF THAT IS CORRECT THEN WE ARE IN the first stages of the advance.  the first move up (wave 1) will complete and then wave 2 will come and, more than likely, w/ a vengeance because everyone thinks the “old trend” is in play.  That’s the BUYING OPPORTUNITY and price should never go below the low that was formed last week.

stay tuned …get ready to rumble.

Bart

 

This is what a quadrillion looks like …

Posted on September 7, 2015     Leave a Comment

after looking at this chart … ask yourself, what is the counterparty risk of 1.4 Quadrillion Derivatives outstanding ….?