Bart's Charts

Dow Jones Industrial Average – SELL pattern complete

Posted on August 27, 2015     4 Comments

the markets reaction in/around this level will give us a heads up for the next directional opinion (IMHO)

When PATTERNS fail, they almost always come back to touch it and then CONTINUE (UPDATE)

Posted on August 27, 2015     Leave a Comment

UPDATE: is “I’m not sure, but suspect” good enough?  We went thru the level and closed below it BUT the next day moved strongly higher.  A weekly close above the old pattern is good but my perspective is these old patterns work – pretty exactly.

plus, it looks like we aren’t complete from a wave count.

going to play it safe and look for further downside.

guess we’ll see ….

we now have a GREAT opportunity to see if the 10000 level holds on the German Dax.  I blogged about it here: https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/14/german-dax-voo-doo-is-a-wonder-to-behold/ and at the time it was finishing a MONUMENTAL pattern from the all time low 30+years ago.  Guess you could say it “worked” because it held the market at that level for over a year and then it exploded higher earlier this year.

now, one of the “axioms” of PATTERN recognition is when a PATTERN fails (which it ultimately did a year later) the market will, invariably come back to touch it and then continue in the direction of the break.

yes, I know, sounds CRAZY but as a PATTERN dude, you HAVE to TRADE WHAT YOU SEE not WHAT YOU BELIEVE .. what do we have?

A PERFECT pattern on top of a former long term pattern …this is what we SEE:

• .618/.786 overlap retracements
• 1.618 extension
• projection into the area
• measured moves w/ the projection (note the blue arrows)
• ALL ON TOP OF A FORMER PATTERN

so, time for the IF then …

• IF this pattern holds then the German Dax should move higher …. perhaps even taking out the old high.  I know that belief is crazy .. but it’s what I see.
• IF THIS PATTERN FAILS – it ranks up there as a “big deal” and is VERY VERY significant? Why?
  • In a very strong UP trend PATTERN dudes ALWAYS trade the first pattern int he direction of the trend.
    • In a directional change – that first pattern will usually fail and then, well, it’s not good so to speak and the correction will go much deeper than “they” expect.

So, knowing that, yes, the global market is connected believe this is a VERY good proxy to see if the support holds … if it does, then believe we’ll carve out a support zone in the US markets and others ….

Stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions.

B

German DAX coming back to the old failed pattern level … “big deal”

form, proportion and harmony

Posted on August 27, 2015     Leave a Comment

take a look at this FX chart of the Loonie (Canadian) vs the USD …in my mind, it’s a wonder to behold.

• anyone notice the all time high was 1.618?
• start from 1972 and you see the AB=CD …
• note the correction at BC (blue dashed line) and it’s the same correction that occurred in 2009-2011
• on the way down from 1.618 note the orange dashed lines .. same measured move

now we are close, but not quite there, to ANOTHER PATTERN completing … it’s still got 100 pips or so to go.  this ranks up there as a “big deal” as you know we’ve been watching for the commodity currencies to bottom and this 1.3400 handle will tell us a lot.

OBTW – when you see the Loonie, think crude …

• IF LOONIE BOTTOM then OIL BOUNCE .. or it continues to get smashed

Cheers ….B

Editors Note: just noticed I messed up on the labeling – these charts are the USD vs LOONIE.  Apologize for any confusion.

USD Index on the “watch list” for completing the “correction”

Posted on August 25, 2015     Leave a Comment

US Dollar Index

When PATTERNS fail, the almost always come back to touch it and then CONTINUE

Posted on August 22, 2015     Leave a Comment

we now have a GREAT opportunity to see if the 10000 level holds on the German Dax.  I blogged about it here: https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/14/german-dax-voo-doo-is-a-wonder-to-behold/ and at the time it was finishing a MONUMENTAL pattern from the all time low 30+years ago.  Guess you could say it “worked” because it held the market at that level for over a year and then it exploded higher earlier this year.

now, one of the “axioms” of PATTERN recognition is when a PATTERN fails (which it ultimately did a year later) the market will, invariably come back to touch it and then continue in the direction of the break.

yes, I know, sounds CRAZY but as a PATTERN dude, you HAVE to TRADE WHAT YOU SEE not WHAT YOU BELIEVE .. what do we have?

A PERFECT pattern on top of a former long term pattern …this is what we SEE:

• .618/.786 overlap retracements
• 1.618 extension
• projection into the area
• measured moves w/ the projection (note the blue arrows)
• ALL ON TOP OF A FORMER PATTERN

so, time for the IF then …

• IF this pattern holds then the German Dax should move higher …. perhaps even taking out the old high.  I know that belief is crazy .. but it’s what I see.
• IF THIS PATTERN FAILS – it ranks up there as a “big deal” and is VERY VERY significant? Why?
  • In a very strong UP trend PATTERN dudes ALWAYS trade the first pattern int he direction of the trend.
    • In a directional change – that first pattern will usually fail and then, well, it’s not good so to speak and the correction will go much deeper than “they” expect.

So, knowing that, yes, the global market is connected believe this is a VERY good proxy to see if the support holds … if it does, then believe we’ll carve out a support zone in the US markets and others ….

Stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions.

B

German DAX coming back to the old failed pattern level … “big deal”