rates ..
Posted on September 5, 2015 1 Comment
watch for a WEEKLY closing below to signify the 5000 year low in interest rates is over.
key folks …make it easy and don’t listen to all the talking pundits.
Fed Fund Futures
WMT set up …slow down and digest the logic… this is important, I think
Posted on September 1, 2015 Leave a Comment
BUY WMT (?)
- note – measured move ( in price and time), polarity and an extension target ….
- needs to stop here and start back up, IMHO.
- we are also sitting on a former resistance zone of 15 years folks .. if break down from here – we’ll call that a “what’s the fighter thinking” moment …
- here’s the charts:
with the above being posted I’m going to try and present the plausible IF-THEN scenario using PATTERNS and ratio analysis
- Ratio Analysis is VERY powerful and when coupled w/ PATTERNS it really gives you a flavor for institutional positioning and money flow.
- Certain stocks “own” the world of safety, risk-off, “if the word ends tomorrow I buy xxx”, etc.
- $WMT is one of those names. A lot of the public shops at $WMT.
- So IF WMT is strengthening from a relative strength perspective then institutions are taking risk off … if it’s losing strength then risk is on …
- How do we know when to “wax on” or “wax off?” (Pardon the Karate Kid pun)
- HINT: PATTERNS.
- Here’s the text books SELL PATTERN on the SPY/WMT ratio
- What’s this mean?
- IF the PATTERN works then WMT is going to be a “risk off” asset and the SPY will lose relative strength to WMT.
- What’s this mean?
CLIFF NOTES: why is this important? See chart below … EVERY TIME since 2000 that the ratio inflected the SPY did at the EXACT TIME.
SPY/WMT ratio w/ SPY overlaid (blue line)
SO – “if then” w/ me …
IF this pattern holds then the US Equity market is in on the magical mystery tour … step right up, come this way.
IF it fails (the ratio goes higher) then this correction “should” end soon and game on ….
HINT HINT: watch monitor this ratio, closely.
THIS IS WHAT I SEE AND NOT WHAT I BELIEVE ….
Cheers and rock on, ok?
Bart
grab a ticket .. having fun w/ the gang @seeitmarket
Posted on September 1, 2015 Leave a Comment
MR TOADS WILD RIDE … the magical mystery tour!
http://www.seeitmarket.com/are-the-financial-markets-turning-into-mr-toads-wild-ride-14713/
man, can you imagine be SHORT the VIX? Ouch ..
Posted on August 29, 2015 Leave a Comment
SVXY is a short the VIX ETF.
it has crashed. ouch.
anyway, wanted to show you a VERY powerful and simple PROJECTION technique. On a “MONTHLY” chart use the first Signal Reversal Candle (the high of the low bar is taken out on close for UP and vice versa) and subdivide it by 1/8ths. My mentor Mike Jenkins showed it to me .. .www.stockcyclesforecast.com
enjoy the chart …
SVXY w/ 1/8 signal reversal candle projection technique
Super Full Moon Going into Close tomorrow
Posted on August 27, 2015 Leave a Comment
Super Full Moon going into the close tomorrow … the only thing I’ll point out is 1) it’s going to be volatile (up or down) and we have a sell pattern on the NASDAQ shown below. What does this mean? Simple folks…it means I know exactly where I’m wrong.
If PATTERN works then NASDAQ should start to sell off …
If PATTERN fails then we go higher …
Simple?
B
Dow Jones Industrial Average – SELL pattern complete
Posted on August 27, 2015 4 Comments
the markets reaction in/around this level will give us a heads up for the next directional opinion (IMHO)
When PATTERNS fail, they almost always come back to touch it and then CONTINUE (UPDATE)
Posted on August 27, 2015 Leave a Comment
UPDATE: is “I’m not sure, but suspect” good enough? We went thru the level and closed below it BUT the next day moved strongly higher. A weekly close above the old pattern is good but my perspective is these old patterns work – pretty exactly.
plus, it looks like we aren’t complete from a wave count.
going to play it safe and look for further downside.
guess we’ll see ….
we now have a GREAT opportunity to see if the 10000 level holds on the German Dax. I blogged about it here: https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/14/german-dax-voo-doo-is-a-wonder-to-behold/ and at the time it was finishing a MONUMENTAL pattern from the all time low 30+years ago. Guess you could say it “worked” because it held the market at that level for over a year and then it exploded higher earlier this year.
now, one of the “axioms” of PATTERN recognition is when a PATTERN fails (which it ultimately did a year later) the market will, invariably come back to touch it and then continue in the direction of the break.
yes, I know, sounds CRAZY but as a PATTERN dude, you HAVE to TRADE WHAT YOU SEE not WHAT YOU BELIEVE .. what do we have?
A PERFECT pattern on top of a former long term pattern …this is what we SEE:
- .618/.786 overlap retracements
- 1.618 extension
- projection into the area
- measured moves w/ the projection (note the blue arrows)
- ALL ON TOP OF A FORMER PATTERN
so, time for the IF then …
- IF this pattern holds then the German Dax should move higher …. perhaps even taking out the old high. I know that belief is crazy .. but it’s what I see.
- IF THIS PATTERN FAILS – it ranks up there as a “big deal” and is VERY VERY significant? Why?
- In a very strong UP trend PATTERN dudes ALWAYS trade the first pattern int he direction of the trend.
- In a directional change – that first pattern will usually fail and then, well, it’s not good so to speak and the correction will go much deeper than “they” expect.
- In a very strong UP trend PATTERN dudes ALWAYS trade the first pattern int he direction of the trend.
So, knowing that, yes, the global market is connected believe this is a VERY good proxy to see if the support holds … if it does, then believe we’ll carve out a support zone in the US markets and others ….
Stay tuned and let me know if you have any questions.
B
German DAX coming back to the old failed pattern level … “big deal”
Lions and Tigers and Bears Oh My – XOM Monthly
Posted on August 27, 2015 Leave a Comment
folks – I am sorry that I didn’t post this earlier as this ranks up there as a “no brainer” in my simple mind …
- the ENTIRE KEY is the square root target
- IF square root targets lie on top of 3 Fibonacci retracements and a measured move then Lions (square root target), Tigers (measured move) and Bears (pardon the pun – retracement levels) it is “usually” market magic.
also, the pattern from November 2013 is included. was looking for 101-102. shoot me …
strategy is key here .. as you can see we do have a target a little lower also BUT that daily candle is impressive, wouldn’t you say?
form, proportion and harmony
Posted on August 27, 2015 Leave a Comment
take a look at this FX chart of the Loonie (Canadian) vs the USD …in my mind, it’s a wonder to behold.
- anyone notice the all time high was 1.618?
- start from 1972 and you see the AB=CD …
- note the correction at BC (blue dashed line) and it’s the same correction that occurred in 2009-2011
- on the way down from 1.618 note the orange dashed lines .. same measured move
now we are close, but not quite there, to ANOTHER PATTERN completing … it’s still got 100 pips or so to go. this ranks up there as a “big deal” as you know we’ve been watching for the commodity currencies to bottom and this 1.3400 handle will tell us a lot.
OBTW – when you see the Loonie, think crude …
- IF LOONIE BOTTOM then OIL BOUNCE .. or it continues to get smashed
Cheers ….B
Editors Note: just noticed I messed up on the labeling – these charts are the USD vs LOONIE. Apologize for any confusion.
Ratio Analysis …powerful tool
Posted on August 26, 2015 Leave a Comment
if you want, search the site for ratio analysis .. it works and the key is it really gives you a feeling for how the big boys are moving the money around … this move isn’t about “Mom and Pops” folks, it’s about institutional money flow …
we’ve done this before but here it is again:
- if volatility rises XLP (staples) outperforms the overall market
- when volatility goes away rotation out of XLP occurs.
today’s move to be expected … a monster SELL of the XLP/SPX ratio occurred.
now, the key will be this level and what happens in around it in the next few days.
B
